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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 15 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/13/2022

NFL betting predictions Week 15 opening line report Baker Mayfield Los Angeles Rams

Week 14 is in the books. And with just 4 weeks to go, it is time to look at the lines for Week 15. In Week 14, we went 1-2 with our bets, as the Jets covered against the Bills. The Titans and Dolphins came in as short favorites but lost outright. This moves our season record to 14-10-1, as we have been able to churn a consistent profit this year. Before jumping into our picks for Week 15, let’s take a look at the biggest storylines from the previous slate of games.

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  • Raiders shoot themselves in the foot… again: The Raiders were gifted a primetime game against a weak Rams team but threw their slim playoff hopes down the drain after blowing a 2-touchdown lead in the final 4 minutes. Baker Mayfield may not be done yet. 
  • Ravens win, but at what cost: The Ravens managed to get the job done, beating the Steelers 16-14 in Week 14. However, Lamar Jackson is hurt, and Tyler Huntley has a concussion, leaving Anthony Brown to take the reins of the 9-4 Ravens. 
  • Lions stay alive: The Lions have now won 5 of their last 6 games after beating the 10-2 Vikings, keeping their playoff hopes alive. It won’t be easy for the 6-7 Lions to qualify, but a weak remaining schedule may be enough to get them over the line. 
  • Who can stop Hurts? Jalen Hurts is now the MVP favorite, as the Eagles blew out the Giants on the back of another complete performance from Hurts. A stellar offensive line has allowed the young QB to shine, and they are the rightful favorites to take home the NFC crown.
  • Cowboys avoid disaster: The Cowboys needed a last-second touchdown to beat the 1-10-1 Texans, preventing the biggest upset of the year. They came in as 17.5-point favorites. And despite the victory, they will have to play better down the stretch if they are to remain near the NFC summit. 
  • Wilson is cooked: Russell Wilson went down with a concussion in the Broncos loss to the Chiefs, adding an unwanted exclamation mark to his abysmal season. The Broncos don’t even own their own top 3 pick in the draft, thanks to the trade for Wilson. Ouch. 
  • San Fran doesn’t need a QB: There was never a doubt that the 49ers weakest area was the quarterback position. And after last pick Brock Purdy thrashed the Tom Brady led Buccaneers, this point was emphasized even further. 
  • Bye bye Brady? The Buccaneers sit 6-7 but are holding down the NFC South divisional lead. Tom Brady was ineffective again, but he has been blessed with a weak division. IF the Bucs can hold onto their paper-thin playoff spot, they’ll be greeted with a tough NFC East matchup. 

Now that Week 14 is done and dusted, let’s take a look at some opening lines for Week 15. Locking in value early in the week is critical, as every half point can be the difference when trying to churn a profit against Vegas. Let’s dive in.

Game 1: Indianapolis Colt at Minnesota Vikings

Opening Line: Minnesota Vikings (-4)

The 10-3 Vikings are hosting the 4-8-1 Colts in Week 15 and will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to their division rivals, the Detroit Lions, in Week 14. While the Vikings have had some fortunate plays go their way during their stellar season, they are still an upper-level football team and deserve to be a larger favorite than this. The Colts have had a disastrous season, sacking their head coach, changing quarterbacks, and having very limited success. They had a bye in Week 14 and are coming off a 3-game losing skid before, including a 54-19 drubbing at the hands of the Cowboys. Matt Ryan is well past his prime, and a solid Vikings defense should have no problem keeping them under 20 points. As long as Justin Jefferson and 1pm Kirk Cousins show up, the Vikings will be able to cruise to a comfortable Saturday win over the Matt Saturday led Colts.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-4)

Game 2: New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders

Opening Line: Pick’em

The Patriots are visiting Las Vegas in Week 15, and both teams will be looking to keep their playoff hopes alive. While both teams are mathematically still in the playoff race, the Patriots have the only real shot at playing meaningful football in January. The Raiders were expected to be part of a competitive AFC West. However, considering the Chiefs are the only team in a playoff position, they are not the only team in the division to disappoint. The ironic thing is, they aren’t even playing bad football. The Raiders have a point differential of just -5, despite their 5-8 record, but have made too many late game mistakes, costing them valuable wins. While this trend is concerning, I’d much rather back a talented football team that just needs to avoid shooting themselves in the foot, over a lackluster Patriots offense. The negative football the Patriots play week in and week out has allowed them to avoid turnovers, but has yet to result in touchdowns. Unless Bill Belichick opens up the playbook, I expect a few risky plays to pay off for the Raiders, and lead to a victory in front of their home crowd.

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders ML

Game 3: LA Rams at Green Bay Packers

Opening Line: Green Bay Packers (-7)

I am shocked by this line. I’m genuinely curious as to what the Packers have done to deserve being full touchdown favorites over anyone in the NFL, especially against a team coming off a feel-good comeback win from their new QB. The LA Rams pulled off the impossible, scoring two touchdowns in the final 4 minutes against the Raiders in Week 14, but were still on track to cover if they only got 1. In order for a 7+ points cover to be safe, a team has to be up by 15 or more points in the waning minutes of the game. The odds that the Packers are able to do that on MNF against the Rams feels unlikely. The Packers are all but out of the playoff race and have won 2 of their last 7 games. Just like compatriot Brady, Aaron Rodgers is finding the final year in the NFL a difficult one and does not deserve a vintage Rodgers line. If this was 2018, maybe a 7-point spread is reasonable, but in 2022, the Packers are simply mediocre. Take the Rams +7 while you still can, as I expect this line to fall all the way down to the 4-point range before kickoff.

Pick: LA Rams +7

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