Monday Night Football Picks Week 1: Bills vs. Jets
The crew at MetLife Stadium will have to turn over the field in less than 24 hours for the first Monday Night Football game of the 2023 NFL season.
The Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants take the field on Sunday night. Why would they schedule a home game the next night for the New York Jets?
Well, MetLife Stadium will debut its new playing surface in Week 1. The FieldTurf Core system is the first multi-layer dual polymer monofilament fiber used for this purpose.
That translates to how you think it would. The turf should be much safer than the Jets and Giants had in previous years.
The New York Jets are projected to win 10 games this season. They lost 10 last year but have added longtime Green Bay Packer Aaron Rodgers. To shore up the running game, the Jets brought in explosive running back Dalvin Cook from the Vikings.
Rodgers turns 40 in December, and Cook has shown regression for the previous two seasons. I understand the hype around the New York Jets, but they might not even get off the ground in 2023, much less turn on the afterburners and break the sound barrier.
As for the Buffalo Bills and 6th-year quarterback Josh Allen, we might see some regression from him and his team. The guy makes bad decisions under duress. He has thrown 29 interceptions over the past two seasons.
Let's check the betting odds for this fun matchup for Monday Night Football between the visiting Buffalo Bills and the home New York Jets.
Then, we can make a pick!
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When: 8:15 PM Eastern on Monday September 11th
Where: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Buffalo Bills Moneyline: -130 Point Spread: -1.5 (-108)
New York Jets Moneyline: +110 Point Spread: +1.5 (-112)
Point Total Over 46.5: -108 Under 46.5: -112
The New York Jets defense ranked second in the NFL, giving up only 4.8 yards/play in 2023. That's a great start, but this squad will need to show us significant improvements on an offense that ranked 29th in points scored in order to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC.
The Buffalo Bills won the AFC East for the third consecutive season last year but have faltered come playoff time. People blame the quarterback, of course, but Buffalo did fight some injuries down the stretch.
The Bills have the better roster. So, the key for them will be protecting the football. They were 31st in the NFL last year with 1.7 giveaways per game. Fortunately for them, though, the Jets' elite defense was somehow 30th in takeaways.
New York's pass defense specifically was second in the league last year, allowing only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. They were a strong defense in 2023 but still conservative.
Will they play conservatively like last year? Or will the secondary look to prey upon an aging quarterback with a weakening arm?
Buffalo ranked second last season in yards/play with 6.1, while the Jets' defense ranked second, allowing only 4.8 per offensive play.
This game will likely be a low-scoring affair, though, as offenses tend to take a little longer to click at the beginning of the year than the defenses.
The Jets are likely to make it a competitive game. The difference between the two teams, though, is one is a Top 10 offense and defense, while the other is good on D but ranked in the cellar of the NFL in offensive production last season.
I understand Rodgers is there now, but this guy went from throwing four or five picks a year for the majority of his 18-year career to letting 12 slip away in 2022.
We are getting a deal on the Bills' moneyline. They lost three games last season by a combined eight points! That includes a 17-20 loss midseason against the Jets.
Pick: Buffalo Bills Moneyline: -130
In Conclusion
Buffalo comes out hot in Week 1. I understand they are only 1.5-point favorites, However, with moneyline odds of just (-130), the betting value remains.
Imagine this one playing out 24-23 with a Bills win. You don’t want to be holding that (-1.5) betting ticket. I would rather get blown out than get that bad beat.
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