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NFL Week 1 Spreads with Expert Betting Predictions

by Matt Zitt - 5/16/2023

NFL Week 1 spreads and expert betting predictions Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Week 1 lines are on the board, and what an amazing sight! The 2023-2024 season is set to begin on September 7 with a showdown between the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs and Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions. The first Sunday Night Football matchup features the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, while the NFL will finish the week with Aaron Rodgers making his New York Jets debut on Monday Night Football. We will look below at some opening lines that catch our eyes!

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Detroit Lions (+7) vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is fresh off his second Super Bowl title after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in February. Despite the Chiefs’ overall success, they were one of the worst spread-covering teams throughout the entire NFL. They were 5-11-1 against the spread in the regular season and finished 7-12-1 against the spread, including the playoffs. Detroit went 9-8 straight up and an amazing 12-5 against the spread. The Lions have plenty of young talent, and I expect Dan Campbell to have his squad ready to go against a very challenging matchup. Take the Lions +7 when the Chiefs will be celebrating their Super Bowl title and could overlook the Lions.

San Francisco 49ers vs Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

The 49ers might have the best roster in the entire NFL, but there are question marks surrounding the quarterback position. Brock Purdy is coming off elbow surgery, and Trey Lance broke his fibula. Even though it is Week 1, the 49ers are notorious for playing weaker football on the East Coast after a lengthy trip. The Steelers are coming off a season where they finished 9-8 straight up and 10-7-1 against the spread. Mike Tomlin is a proven winner, and a healthy T.J. Watt will be disruptive per usual. Give me the three points with the Steelers in Week 1.

Baltimore Ravens (-9) vs Houston Texans

Lamar Jackson got his contract, and the Baltimore Ravens GM added OBJ in free agency and Zay Flowers in the draft. Add in one of the best tight ends in football with Mark Andrews, while J.K. Dobbins looked explosive at the end of 2022, and the Ravens offense should take flight. What better way to start the 2023 season then taking on a porous Texans defense? Baltimore is 10-2 all-time against Houston and has outscored them 316-218 in the 12 matchups. Give me the Ravens by three touchdowns in Week 1.

Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Even with Derrick Henry in the backfield, the Titans look like a team in total rebuild. The organization's confidence in Ryan Tannehill has taken a hit, and some high school teams might have a better wide receiver corps. Derek Carr will want to set the tone early for the Saints and make a good first impression with the fan base. He also has plenty of offensive weapons in Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. This offense should find success. Take the Saints -1.5 vs the Titans.

Buffalo Bills (-1) vs New York Jets

Week 1 will finish up on Monday night with the New York Jets and their newly acquired MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Jets fans will have a Super Bowl mentality entering 2023 with their shiny new pieces and very good defense. They went 7-10 straight up in 2022 and 8-9 against the spread. Josh Allen and company will look to start the season 1-0 after a disappointing playoff performance against the Bengals. The Bills went 14-4 straight up and 8-9-1 against the spread in 2022. I will put money on the Bills as Josh Allen has more chemistry with his offensive weaponry than Aaron Rodgers with his Jets’ teammates.

Thursday, September 7

Lions at Chiefs (-7)

Sunday, September 10

Bengals at Browns (+3)

Panthers at Falcons (-3)

Buccaneers at Vikings (-7)

Titans at Saints (-1.5)

Cardinals at Commanders (OTB)

Jaguars at Colts (+3)

49ers at Steelers (+3)

Packers at Bears (-2.5)

Eagles at Patriots (+3.5)

Texans at Ravens (-9)

Dolphins at Chargers (-3)

Raiders at Broncos (-1.5)

Rams at Seahawks (-4)

Cowboys at Giants (+2.5)

Monday, September 11

Bills at Jets (+1)

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