Monday Night Football Picks: Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos

by Mike Allen - 9/25/2025

In the final game of Week 4 and the second of two Monday Night Football matchups, the Joe Burrow-less Bengals of Cincinnati make their way toward the Rocky Mountains for a fun AFC matchup.

Of course, it would be more fun if Burrow weren’t injured. You don’t believe me? These two teams met in late December of last season, and the man threw for over 400 yards, leading his team to a 30-24 overtime win. Oh, and it wasn’t like the man just sat back there and played catch. Burrow was sacked 7 times!

This was one of the few contests when the Bengals were able to win close games in 2024. Their defense just could not get the stops.

Even though the story in Cincinnati is no Burrow, it’s also no defense, still. Hey, they’re tied for first place in the AFC Central. Let that be a reminder to us of how young the 2025 regular season is in late September.

We can’t judge these two teams too harshly for their performance up to this point in the year. That said, they’ve just kinda been themselves. The Bengals' passing game was clicking with Burrow, even though the offensive line couldn’t protect well, but the running game was somehow, some way, nearly non-existent, and the defense was trash.

The Bengals are the same team minus arguably the most valuable player in the league.

As for the 1-2 Denver Broncos, they're not much different stylistically than they were last season.

Denver has a great defense, especially the pass rush and secondary. Sean Payton is a head coach who knows how to win games. I did well betting them in Bo Nix's first season.

In many ways, they’re the same team they were last season, but that’s not all good. Granted, it’s still early in the year, but I was expecting an uptick in the composure/decision-making of Nix. He blew it against the Chargers late. Those are things that usually improve the most in the sophomore season, even if other attributes regress a bit.

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Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) at Denver Broncos (-7.5)

Now, some people might look at this betting line and think, aw man, we missed the boat because it opened at just (-6) for the Broncos. While we may not get any more closing line value nor be on the right side of the key number of 7, that’s a lot of steam for us to follow.

With 73% of the tickets and 83% of the money on the Broncos, the market has made up its mind. I understand that a lot of that money came before the line hit 7 or 7.5. However, I just don’t believe that either the public or the sharp bettors want any part of the Bengals this week.

Point Total: 44.5

The consensus point total has remained unchanged since it opened at 44.5. There are some 44’s out there now if you’re thinking of betting the over.

Even though Bo Nix has struggled late, the team is just one first down and one silly special teams penalty away from being 3-0.

This game may turn into a whoopin’, much like the Vikings vs. Bengals game just a few days ago, which ended 48-10. Carson Wentz led his team to a 38-point win in 2025. The guy has thrown 40 passes since 2022!

If Sean Payton can’t formulate a game plan for Nix to do something similar, in a desperate situation, mind you, we have to start questioning the Broncos.

Moneyline Odds

Bengals: +320

Broncos: -400

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos Betting Analysis

This is a dreadful spot for the Bengals. They’re running into a furious Broncos team that was robbed by the refs in one loss and barely beaten by their rival in the other.

Cincinnati quarterback Jake Browning, for better or worse, isn’t afraid to sling it. If we back Denver, we have to take into account that this dude is in it to win it, playing with a small amount of pressure.

I suppose if he continues to throw multiple interceptions per game, they might consider getting someone else in there, but they're a passing team that averages a league-worst 2.4 yards/rush. Their defense stinks, so they don't need a game manager.

They need a miracle.

For a bet this week, I am tempted to play the Broncos even up at (-7.5). This game has 30-10 written all over it. Denver’s defensive line has the #1 pressure rate in the league. The secondary is filled with ballhawks.

Let’s stay away from that icky line and target a 1st half team total. The narrative for me is Denver jumping out to an early lead, scoring on most of their possessions in the first half, even if it’s just a field goal.

When only betting the 1st half, we may be missing out on some of the likely relentless 2nd half pressures from the Denver D. They will come, though, but it'll be all game. The Bengals may have the worst running game in the NFL to this point, so the pass rushers should do more pinning back than holding back from the start of the game.

Give me the Broncos' 1st half team total over 12.5. Denver will probably have 13 points before the end of the 1st quarter because, even if Cincinnati gets touchdowns, it's most likely they'll be quick scores.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos Betting Pick

Pick: Broncos First Half Team Total Over 12.5 Points

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Monday Night Football Picks: Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos

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