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Monday Night Football Picks: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears Predictions

by Mike Allen - 9/4/2025

Monday Night Football picks for Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears Caleb Williams

Whether the NFC North will once again be the best and most competitive division in football for the second straight season is yet to be seen. Fans of the NFC “Norse” didn’t get the Super Bowl they wanted, but they did get to keep the exiting Lions’ offensive coordinator and new Chicago Bears head coach, Ben Johnson.

The NFC North is the only division in Week 1 with two head-to-head games. The first of which will be between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in Titletown, broadcast nationwide at 4:25.

Overshadowed by this, even in the Monday Night Football slot, are the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. Once again, Minnesota can't get any respect. Last year, all I heard was how you couldn't credit Sam Darnold with much of their success.

Well, he left, and Minnesota was 14-3 last season. Why is their win total at 8.5?

The Vikings were able to retain their blitzing genius defensive coordinator, Brian Flores. One of the key factors in consistently winning in the NFL is minimizing coordinator turnover, and people are overlooking this aspect with Minnesota this year.

That said, they are the slight betting favorites to open up the 2025 Monday Night Football season.

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Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears (+1.5)

How did we get there? Well, much like the Sunday Night Football matchup of the Ravens visiting the Bills, the road team moved 2.5 points from the underdog to the betting favorite.

Point Total: 43.5

The point total hasn’t seen quite as much movement as the spread. We opened at 44.5 and now sit at 43.5. My early lean is to the over. Both teams are better defensively than offensively. However, between Johnson and Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, it’s hard to imagine a game these two offensive masterminds have been scheming on for months not going over 43 points. 

Moneyline

Vikings: -125

Bears: +105

Picking a side here will be tough, but if you do, take the points if you like Chicago or the moneyline if you prefer Minnesota.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears Betting Analysis

Minnesota has, of course, let Darnold take his talents to the Pacific Northwest because they’re hungry to bring in Michigan Wolverine and National Champion quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, to lead them to another 14 wins.

That’s a lot to ask of the kid. Thankfully, he’s had his unofficial redshirt season in the league after he tore his meniscus in his push-off leg. It was a good year to learn what to do, but has he learned what not to do?

On the other sideline stands an all-star former offensive coordinator, from a division rival, mind you, who’s also under a lot of pressure to put together a better game plan than last year for his young star under center, Caleb Williams.

As good a season as the Washington Commanders’ quarterback Jayden Daniels had, one could argue right now that the ceiling is higher with a quarterback like Williams. He’s bigger, thicker, and likely more durable.

I keep hearing about how Minnesota went 2-0 against Williams and the Bears last year, and yes, that’s true. Flores is back as the DC. I get it, but Williams played his best quarterback under duress as he was getting blitzed by Minnesota.

The Vikings scored 30 and 30 in both of those games. Chicago had 27 and 12. The low team total was largely due to failures on 3rd down and in the red zone. I don't expect the same from Williams again.

We already know he can make the split-second decision to stick to the script or go off the cuff with the blitz in his face. Williams has an OC that will put him in a position to score.

If we want to bet this over, we have to put some faith into McCarthy. The positional ranking consensus I can find is that Seattle, with Darnold and McCarthy under center, is ranked about the same, near 20th in the league, alongside the Vikings. 

If McCarthy is terrible, then he will throw a pick-6 and give some short fields to the Bears. Should the young man under center have at least a decent game, though, he should be able to get his team close to 30 points.

We can’t disrespect the genius of both O’Connell and Johnson. 

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears Betting Pick

Pick: Over 43.5 Points

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