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2025 New England Patriots Season Win Total Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 8/8/2025

New England Patriots season win total picks Stefon Diggs

I say it every year.

Beware the Trendy Team.

There is always one or two teams, heading into every NFL season, that the general public has become enamored with. There are always a couple teams that everyone and their sister has tabbed as their “sleeper team” or as a “team on the rise”.

Very rarely does it work out well for Trendy Team.

And this year New England fits the bill.

Hiring new head coach Mike Vrabel has injected some life and hope into a franchise still picking up the pieces from its crumbled dynasty. New England also spent nearly $300 million in free agency and was praised for a draft haul that brought them five of the top 106 players.

Add in a soft division and a significantly easier schedule and the New England bandwagon is currently overflowing. The Patriots have gotten a ton of buzz from bettors and media bobbleheads alike and now they enter the fall as one of the trendiest teams there is.

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2025 OFFENSE

If the Patriots are going to make strides this year it must come on this side of the ball.

Drake Maye has gotten plaudits for his rookie season. I’m not exactly sure why.

He went just 3-9 in his 12 starts and his 15 touchdowns to 10 interceptions isn’t exactly stellar. Maye guided the No. 31 total offense and No 32 passing offense. The Patriots were also terrible on third down and in the red zone as this team averaged just 17 points per game.

The assumption is that Maye is going to get better in his second season. Not so fast. Mac Jones made the Pro Bowl in his rookie campaign and then was awful in his next two years. There is nothing that guarantees a smooth progression for Maye and the offense.

Maye’s development will be left to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. McDaniels is one of any number of Patriots coaches that road Tom Brady’s coattails for decades. He hasn’t led a Top 10 total offense since 2018 and this is a guy that hasn’t accomplished anything without Brady under center.

New England hasn’t developed a true No. 1 wideout in over a decade. So, I will take a hefty “wait and see” approach to a room made up of what’s left of Stefon Diggs and a bunch of No. 3 receivers.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2025 DEFENSE

This is a young defense. And how the defense comes together will be as important to this team’s prospects as Maye’s development.

New England spent big to bring in five new defensive starters. They also used four late draft picks on defenders and the Patriots entered training camp with 13 new players on the defensive two-deep. It is a completely overhauled group from the one that finished last season No. 22 in total and scoring defense.

How excited are we supposed to get about Robert Spillane and Carlton Davis? New England shelled out a massive amount of money on defense. I don’t know that they have stocked up on difference makers, though, and I don’t see a lot of top-end talent on the roster.

Defensive coordinator Terrell Williams worked with Vrabel for six years in Tennessee before spending last season in Detroit. He has never been a defensive coordinator before and I’m not sure he is the one to mold all these new pieces into a full formed stop unit.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2025 SCHEDULE

Sun, Sep 7        vs Las Vegas Raiders               1:00 p.m.

Sun, Sep 14     @ Miami Dolphins                   1:00 p.m.

Sun, Sep 21     vs Pittsburgh Steelers             1:00 p.m.

Sun, Sep 28     vs Carolina Panthers               1:00 p.m.

Sun, Oct 5        @ Buffalo Bills                           8:20 p.m.

Sun, Oct 12      @ New Orleans Saints             4:25 p.m.

Sun, Oct 19      @ Tennessee Titans                1:00 p.m.

Sun, Oct 26      vs Cleveland Browns               1:00 p.m.

Sun, Nov 2       vs Atlanta Falcons                    1:00 p.m.

Sun, Nov 9       @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers    1:00 p.m.

Thu, Nov 13    vs New York Jets                       8:15 p.m.

Sun, Nov 23     @ Cincinnati Bengals              1:00 p.m.

Mon, Dec 1      vs New York Giants                 8:15 p.m.

Sun, Dec 14     vs Buffalo Bills                           1:00 p.m.

Sun, Dec 21     @ Baltimore Ravens                1:00 p.m.

Sun, Dec 28     @ New York Jets                       1:00 p.m.

Sun, Jan 4/5    vs Miami Dolphins                   TBD

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2025 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

After three straight seasons of seeing their preseason win total drop (from 9.5 to 7.5 to 6.5) the Patriots’ Vegas season win total has lurched back up to 8.5. For context, the Pats have gone 8-26 over the past two seasons combined.

I will admit that there are a lot of statistical indicators predicting a significant bounce back from this group. They were -4 in close losses last year and have finished each of the last two seasons -11 in turnovers. The Patriots had terrible injury luck last season and their offensive yards per point is in a positive regression range for the second straight season.

I also do think that Vrabel is a good coach and his teams were notorious overachievers.

But Vrabel also went 13-21 in his last two years in Tennessee. And a lot of his success came A) on the back of Derrick Henry and B) despite some advance metrics suggesting his teams weren’t as good as their records.

New England does have a cupcake schedule. But I don’t want to get caught up in the crush of the public. I think New England will be markedly better than what we’ve seen in Foxboro the last two years. I don’t think they are fully “back” though and I think expecting them to threaten double-digit wins is a bit much.

I’ll play on the ‘under’.

Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,830 three-month run. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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