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2026 Kansas City Chiefs Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Spencer Toth - 8/20/2026

Kansas City Chiefs predictions Patrick Mahomes

The Kansas City Chiefs will always be among the Super Bowl favorites as long as they have a healthy Patrick Mahomes. The three-time champion has delivered clutch moment after clutch moment, but last year did not go to plan. 

The Chiefs' streak of nine straight AFC West titles was snapped. They missed the playoffs outright. Mahomes ended the season on IR after tearing his ACL. Everyone remembers the Chiefs going to three straight Super Bowls, but it remains to be seen if they can get back to winning ways. Will an aging core be able to return to the top, or is this the beginning of the end for the Chiefs dynasty? 

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Kansas City Chiefs Offseason Recap

The Kansas City Chiefs have been riding the hot hand of Patrick Mahomes for nearly a decade, but the squad needed a dramatic overhaul after last year’s disappointment. 

On offense, Kansas City cleared the house. Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt were both shown the door in the backfield to make space for Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III and Emari Demercado. Pacheco and Hunt both had up-and-down careers with the Chiefs, but neither was especially effective last year, forcing Kansas City to move on. While Demercado will have a role to play, the marquee signing for Kansas City is Walker III. The 2026 Super Bowl MVP will look to make an immediate impact after rushing for over 1,000 yards last year and tacking on 31 receptions on 36 targets as a receiver. His tackle-breaking abilities combined with explosive speed make him hard to slow down, but his lack of pass protection capabilities limits his usage. He is an upgrade, a big one at that, but this is not the kind of move that really moves the needle. 

Elsewhere on offense, the Chiefs released both Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. They didn’t make any big-name additions to replace them, as they still have Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy to catch the bulk of the passes. Finally, Kansas City also brought in Justin Fields as a backup quarterback. Fields won’t see much time on the field with Mahomes healthy, but there is always a chance Andy Reid gets his legs involved in a trick play thanks to his dual-threat status. 

On defense, the Chiefs were even more active. They spent their first four draft picks, including two in the first round, on the defensive side of the ball. Mansoor Delane will start at corner for Kansas City and is one of the most highly touted corner prospects in decades. Kansas City scooped him up sixth overall and will be hoping he can make an immediate impact. They also got a pair of pass rushers, including Peter Woods, late in the first round, as well as help in the secondary to offset the departure of Trent McDuffie. McDuffie was a crucial part of the Chiefs' Super Bowl success, but he was traded to the Los Angeles Rams for four draft picks to create cap space. Kansas City also had some big changes on their defensive line as they look to find the best fit alongside George Karlaftis and Chris Jones. Khyiris Tonga was their most impactful addition, but their early draft picks like Woods and Mason Thomas are also expected to make an impact. 

2026 Kansas City Chiefs Season Expectations

Super Bowl or bust. It is hard to make the season expectations any less for the Chiefs, who have been to five of the last seven Super Bowls, winning three of them. Patrick Mahomes has shown he is still the best quarterback in the league, and assuming he can make a full recovery from his torn ACL, the expectation will be another Super Bowl in Kansas City. His ability to turn up in clutch moments is hard to put into words, and he will still have his big safety blanket named Travis Kelce in the middle of the field. 

The now-married Travis Kelce is in the twilight of his career, but is still one of the most effective options at tight end. He logged 851 yards on 76 receptions last season while finding the end zone five times. His volume was not as high as it used to be and is unlikely to rise much this year, but he is still a crucial part of this offense. He can catch, block, run, and use his IQ like few other tight ends, and wants nothing more than to retire on the back of one more Super Bowl win. 

Last year was a disaster for Kansas City, but it wasn't because of their defense. They allowed just 19.3 PPG, the sixth-fewest in the league, but couldn’t get the offensive support they needed. Losing McDuffie certainly hurts, but there are arguments to be made that the Chiefs got better this offseason on the defensive side of the ball. Their front seven is as dangerous as it gets, while their secondary appears to be in good hands with Delane, new arrival Alohi Gilman, and L’Jarius Sneed. If Patrick Mahomes' knee holds up, the Kansas City Chiefs will once again be one of the truly elite teams this season. 

2026 Kansas City Chiefs Schedule Breakdown

The Kansas City Chiefs schedule is a tough one to get a read on. They have the fifth-hardest schedule in terms of last year’s records, but have the tenth-easiest schedule based on this year’s projected win totals. A few of their opponents, such as the Broncos (x2), Colts, Dolphins, and Patriots, are all expected to be worse than they were last year. They open up the season with an incredibly pivotal Monday Night Football showdown against the Denver Broncos before three very winnable games against the Colts, Dolphins, and Raiders. 

They have six scheduled primetime games, not including Weeks 17 or 18 flex spots, including road games against the Seahawks, Rams, and Bills, three of the best teams in the league. There are some very winnable games on this schedule, but the Chiefs cannot afford to dig themselves an early hole. If they are not 4-0 or at the very least 3-1 heading into their Week 5 bye, it just may be a second consecutive playoff miss for Kansas City. 

2026 Kansas City Chiefs Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs are expected to return to the postseason, but it is far from a guarantee at -200. Their win total is set at 10.5 with plus money available on the over, the lowest preseason total of Patrick Mahomes’ career outside of his rookie season. In terms of the AFC West, the Chiefs are the most likely team to win the division at +165, but the Chargers (+190) and Broncos (+220) are not far behind. 

Looking at the individual awards, Kansas City has quite a few candidates. Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year at +190, and has the fifth-shortest odds to win MVP at +1100. Kenneth Walker III has a shot at Offensive Player of the Year with +3500 odds, while their pair of first-round rookies in Delane (+1000) and Woods (+4000) are both eying Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. 

While the Chiefs proved that making the playoffs is no longer a guarantee, their eyes will be fixed on postseason success. Kansas City has +750 odds to win the AFC with +1600 odds to win the Super Bowl this year. They only trail the Ravens and Bills in the conference and are tied with four teams for the fifth-shortest Super Bowl odds. 

2026 Kansas City Chiefs Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Kansas City Chiefs did their best to retool this roster, but I am not convinced they did enough. They did get younger and now have the second-youngest roster in the league, which should allow them to stay healthier and fresher throughout the season. However, there is no guarantee that Mahomes will return to his pre-injury form, and it is not as if he was lighting it up last season. He only threw for 300+ yards twice last year, and without some Mahomes magic, this is a subpar offense. 

I am quite high on both the Chargers and Broncos this season, which has me avoiding the Chiefs to win the division at all costs. For the first bet, we will take the Chiefs to finish third in the AFC West at +220 odds. I don’t think the Chiefs will finish with a mere six wins again, but expecting a sudden turnaround is difficult. Denver and Los Angeles are both built to win now, and I would take either side over Kansas City at even odds. The fact that the Chiefs are favored to win the division makes this price even juicier. 

In terms of their win total, I see Kansas City finishing 9-8 this season. We could take under 10.5 wins at -140, but I prefer chasing plus money for season-long futures that tie up a portion of our bankroll. Instead, grab +115 odds on Kansas City under 9.5 wins. It may take Mahomes a few weeks to warm up, and when Kansas City is 2-2 heading into the bye, reaching double-digit wins with a brutal second half will be next to impossible. 

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs to Finish Third in the AFC West +220

Top Pick: Kansas City Chiefs Under 9.5 Wins +115

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