NFL Office Pool Picks Week 4 - ATS Predictions for Every Game!

Winning a season-long against the spread pool is reserved for only the best of the best when it comes to predicting sports. It won’t be one backdoor cover or goal-line fumble that costs you the throne, as 272 regular season games is enough time to balance out the variance. All year long, Doc’s Sports will be providing free picks for every single game, with the hopes of helping you come out on top. Last week, we went 7-9 against the spread for the third consecutive week to start the year. Just after saying it is not one lucky bounce that changes the standings, Week 3 especially stung after the Ravens and Chargers both missed by a single point, while the 49ers gave up a meaningless last-minute touchdown to give the Cardinals a cover. No time to cry about our losses, as it is time to jump into the Week 4 picks. 

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) Over Pittsburgh Steelers

Both of these teams have strong defenses as these AFC North rivals clash on Thursday Night Football, and we will side with the Browns in the home underdog role. Deshaun Watson has looked better than the media is giving him credit for, while I am still not a big believer in Aaron Rodgers this season. Look for Cleveland to drain the clock, keep the ball on the ground, and move to a surprising 3-1 start with a gritty win. Browns 16, Steelers 13

Washington Commanders (+3.5) Over Indianapolis Colts

These two teams head across the pond to clash in London, and we have no choice but to pick up the points with Washington. The Commanders are coming off a feel-good win over the reigning Super Bowl champions, as Marcus Mariota looked great in the pocket. Washington has a talented group of pass catchers to elevate this offense, and their defense has thrived at shutting down the run. When Jonathan Taylor gets limited to under 60 yards on the ground, the Colts won’t have enough gas in the tank to win, let alone cover this spread. Commanders 27, Colts 20

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) Over New York Giants

Laying points with the lowly Cardinals on the road is a daunting affair, but the reality is they are a more complete team than New York right now. The Giants just traded for JJ McCarthy at quarterback, but it will still be Jameis Winston under center. New York was lucky to escape Tennessee with a win last week after failing to find the endzone, and when the Cardinals get a couple of red zone stops, they will get back to .500 on the season. Cardinals 21, Giants 17

Houston Texans (-2.5) Over Dallas Cowboys

The Texans offense looks like a complete disaster, but a visit from the worst defense in the league through the first three weeks will give them a chance to get back on track. Dallas continues to find new and creative ways to lose football games, and it is hard to see them doing enough on the road to get the cover. Houston’s defense hasn’t looked like the immovable object it was over the last few seasons, but there is still belief that they can make the playoffs after starting 0-3, and this is as close to a must win game as it gets at this stage of the season. Texans 23, Cowboys 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) Over Green Bay Packers

This is ugly. The Packers look like a complete trainwreck with the injuries piling up, while Tampa Bay has issues of their own with Baker Mayfield out. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will get the start for the Bucs, but they will lean on a strong run game more often than not. This has all the makings of being a close game right down to the wire, and with the home team underdogs by a crucial number, we will plug our nose and take the points. Packers 17, Buccaneers 14

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) Over Jacksonville Jaguars

We will learn a lot about the Jaguars this week as they have steamrolled the Browns and Patriots so far this season while losing to the Broncos in a close one. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career at this point in the young season, but this Cincinnati team looks as motivated as ever. Joe Burrow and his mouthwatering weapons mean the Bengals are usually good for 27+ points, while their improved defense will get the occasional stop needed for them to pull away on the scoreboard. Bengals 33, Jaguars 21

Los Angeles Rams (-3) Over Philadelphia Eagles

The Rams and Eagles are both off to shaky starts, and this is a pivotal game for both teams. While the Rams injuries are concerning, the Eagles looked like a complete disaster on both sides of the ball last week and now take on the preseason Super Bowl favorites on a short week. There were always going to be concerns with the Eagles offense with AJ Brown out of the picture, but now that their defense is also looking rough, they are one loss away from completely imploding. Rams 30, Eagles 14

New England Patriots (+6.5) Over Buffalo Bills

The Bills have looked incredible so far this year, which makes this pick even uglier. Drake Maye was the MVP runner-up last season, and his one touchdown to six interception ratio is due to improve. The Patriots defense is still a strong unit despite getting run over last week, and they will do enough to keep New England within striking distance. As long as Maye is responsible with the football, New England will, at the very least, secure the backdoor cover. Bills 23, Patriots 20

New York Jets (+3.5) Over Chicago Bears

Congratulations to Case Keenum for his Week 3 win. However, now that the Jets have relevant footage to go over, I expect the Bears offense to struggle in this matchup. New York could very well be 3-0 to start the year, and have looked surprisingly competent on offense. We all knew this team would only go as far as their defense takes them, but now that we can trust Geno Smith too, they are a legitimate sleeper in the AFC. Jets 20, Bears 17

Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) Over Tennessee Titans

I am much more willing to lay big spreads with strong offenses over punishing defenses, and this is the perfect spot for Baltimore to pile misery on Tennessee. Cam Ward is forcing the Titans to start evaluating their options at quarterback, and a road trip against the Ravens is not a great spot to get back on track. As long as the Ravens aren’t too fatigued from a wild game in Brazil last week, this one should be over as a contest by the third quarter. Raven 35, Titans 14

Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) Over Miami Dolphins

Just how bad can the Dolphins get? They haven’t led for a single second yet, and now lost De’Von Achane to a season-ending injury last week, their lone bright spot on offense. They are already carrying an NFL-record in dead money, and they are thin in nearly every position. I know I just said I like laying the points with offensive teams over defensive ones, but when the Dolphins are held out of the end zone by a Brian Flores-led defense, it won’t matter. Vikings 17, Dolphins 3

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) Over Denver Broncos 

The 49ers injuries are starting to pile up, but until I see this team miss a beat, how can we fade them? They haven’t even had a remotely close game yet this season, and Denver has relied on frantic second-half comebacks to find success. Brock Purdy is looking composed in the pocket, a split backfield is taking some of the workload off Christian McCaffrey, and this defense is still rock solid. Denver has only scored 10 first half points across their first three games this year, which will leave them with an uphill battle too steep to overcome. 49ers 28, Broncos 17

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders

Two 3-0 teams face off in a pivotal AFC West matchup, and it will be Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs that stay perfect. Kirk Cousins has looked great against subpar defenses this year, but this is by far his toughest test yet. If things start to go off the rails, this one could get ugly in a hurry with the Chiefs looking as strong as they ever have. Chiefs 28, Raiders 11

Seattle Seahawks (-7) Over Los Angeles Chargers

Seattle will shake off their Week 3 loss to Washington where they outgained the Commanders by nearly 200 yards but turned the ball over three times in the defeat. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, their defense is still one of the best units in the NFL, and the Chargers look like a mess. Los Angeles is already fading out of contention at this stage of the season, and expecting this to be the matchup where they get back on track is a lot to ask. It might be close for a while, but even at a full touchdown, we will lay the points with the home team. Seahawks 30, Chargers 20

Detroit Lions (-3.5) Over Carolina Panthers

Have the Lions looked great this year? No. But they are still 2-1 and have a great chance to keep pace with the Vikings at the top of the division in Week 4. Carolina’s defense has looked like a shell of their former selves, and as the injuries pile up, it may even get worse. Look for Detroit to move the chains consistently, take the occasional shot down the field at an exposed secondary, and turn this one into a track meet. Can Bryce Young keep up? Unlikely. Lions 45, Panthers 31

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) Over New Orleans Saints

The Falcons look like a new team with Michael Penix Jr. back in the fold, and with nearly two weeks off to prepare for this matchup, they will pick up a crucial road win. The Saints offense has the pieces to succeed, but it won’t matter if they can’t get stops going the other way. The fact we are getting some insurance on the spread is just a bonus, as Atlanta pulls off this upset thanks to another big game from Drake London and Bijan Robinson. Falcons 24, Saints 21

2026 Record: 21-27

Record over the last two seasons: 273-266-7

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