NFL Office Pool Picks Week 5 - ATS Predictions for Every Game!
There are few feelings more rewarding than winning a season long against the spread pool. It takes consistency across all 272 regular season games to come out on top, as it won’t be one lucky bounce or goal-line stand that plummets you down the standings. Last week, we went 6-9-1 against the spread for our worst week of the season. One bright spot was the fact that we got our second perfect score of the season, nailing the Packers 17-14 victory over the Buccaneers. The Week 5 lines have been released, and it is time to dive right into the Week 5 NFL picks against the spread.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5) Over Dallas Cowboys
It is hard to fall in love with this pick given how the Buccaneers offense has looked this season, but on a short week against a very generous Dallas defense, they will be able to keep it within a one-score game. Jalon Daniels looked relatively comfortable in the pocket for Tampa Bay in his debut last week, and it doesn’t get much easier than a matchup against Dallas. The Cowboys will hover around 30 points, and I am willing to bet that the Bucs eclipse 20 more often than not. Cowboys 30, Buccaneers 23
Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5) Over Jacksonville Jaguars
Have the Eagles looked good on offense? Absolutely not. Now that they have lost Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby due to injury, their options in the backfield are very thin. However, this defense started to come alive last week against the Rams, and there will be little to separate these two when they clash across the pond. Jacksonville will probably walk away from this one with a win, but it is always hard to predict which version of the Eagles we will see on a weekly basis. Either way, this spread is a tad too wide to justify. Jaguars 24, Eagles 20
Green Bay Packers (+3) Over Chicago Bears
Green Bay got a much-needed win over Tampa Bay last week, but their job is much tougher when they host the Bears. Chicago’s defense is firing on all cylinders after another strong showing in Week 4, while their offense has looked good regardless of who is at quarterback. While the public will be all over the Bears, I never have to be convinced to take a home underdog in a divisional matchup, especially with the spread at a key number. There is still belief the Packers can save their season, and it starts with an upset over the reigning NFC North champions. Packers 20, Bears 16
Cincinnati Bengals (-7) Over Miami Dolphins
Even with a thick spread at home, it is hard to see the Dolphins getting this cover. Miami covered the +10 against the Vikings last week, but they put up less than 200 yards of offense and only kept the scoreline respectable by holding the Vikings to three field goals in three red zone trips. If that scoreline more accurately reflected the imbalance of play, we would need to lay double digits with the Bengals in this matchup. This is arguably the best offense against the worst offense leaguewide, which has me more than comfortable laying these points. Bengals 27, Dolphins 6
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) Over New York Jets
The Browns are a miraculous 3-1 this year, and this line feels a bit disrespectful against the 1-3 Jets. New York has looked good enough, but their offense leaves plenty to be desired, especially in the favorite role. The Browns defense is an excellent unit that will limit New York, and they know how to win in close, physical contests. Once you add in the extra rest since they played on Thursday coupled with a bit of insurance, taking the points is the way to go. Browns 19, Jets 14
Houston Texans (-6.5) Over Tennessee Titans
The Houston offense came to life last week against Dallas, but it wasn’t enough to claim their first win of the season. They now have quite literally a must win matchup against the Titans if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they will get it done in dominant fashion. Houston is not quite dead yet having played the difficult portion of their schedule already, and with a spread under a touchdown, we will lay the points. The Titans are a dumpster fire on both sides of the ball with very little reason for optimism. Texans 24, Titans 10
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) Over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Colts are coming off an impressive win over the Commanders for their second win in a row after losing nine straight dating back to last season. Their defense looks solid, their offense has been able to move the ball, and they take on a very fragile Steelers side. Pittsburgh’s defense is no longer the dominant unit it once was, and Aaron Rodgers can’t be trusted to run up the score. I’d take the Colts at 50/50 odds, so the +2.5 point spread is just gravy. Colts 27, Steelers 17
New England Patriots (-3.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders had their perfect season ruined by the Chiefs last week, and will make it two straight defeats when they fall to New England. Drake Maye and company have shaken off a rough start after their big win in Buffalo, and they are the better team on both sides of the ball. I know the Raiders have looked good to start the year, but the three teams they have beaten have a combined 1-11 record this season, and this is a big step up in competition. This spread implies these are two evenly matched teams on a neutral field, which is simply not the case. Patriots 24, Raiders 17
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) Over New Orleans Saints
The Vikings won last week without finding the end zone, which emphasizes how dominant this defense really is. Brian Flores will dial up the blitz early and often, and the lack of a run game for the Saints will really hurt them in this matchup. New Orleans is also on a short week having played on Monday, and look to be fading away after a respectable start. The Vikings offense is ugly, but they don’t have to do much to win with elite defensive play on the other side of the ball. Vikings 17, Saints 9
Washington Commanders (-3.5) Over New York Giants
Jayden Daniels is set to return, and it couldn’t be at a better time for the Commanders. The long list of injuries for Washington is a tough pill for the team to swallow, but they are expected to get Nick Cross and Sam Cosmi back in addition to Daniels. This defense has looked surprisingly solid given the lack of available personnel, and their season is effectively on the line against New York. The Giants have beat up on bad teams to get to 3-1, and this is the perfect time to sell high on New York while buying the dip on Washington. Commanders 30, Giants 24
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) Over Denver Broncos
This is an ugly pick, but with the spread at a key number for the home underdog, we will close our eyes and grab the points. Los Angeles is still winless this year, but their defense has looked sharp and their offense will surely, eventually, figure things out. Denver hasn’t been able to effectively move the ball on offense often enough to warrant this kind of line, and have only scored 13 first half points this season. The Broncos probably find a way to get over the line, but this one screams upset heading into Week 5. Chargers 17, Broncos 16
Detroit Lions (-4.5) Over Arizona Cardinals
This is a road favorite we can get behind. The Cardinals defense is one of the worst units in the league, and as their schedule gets harder, they will give up even more points. A balanced Lions offense hasn’t been enough thanks to Detroit’s own defensive problems, but this is as close to a must win game as it gets for a 2-2 team. We have been waiting for the Lions’ coming out party, and I bet it comes in this soft matchup. Lions 40, Cardinals 17
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) Over San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are still undefeated, but top spot in the division is on the line in this matchup. Seattle has looked fantastic this year on both sides of the ball, and their shorter injury list will get them over the line. They had 14 penalties for 150 yards against Los Angeles and still won the game, showing that they know how to win even when things aren’t going their way. San Francisco is running on fumes right now, and this kind of road matchup is where their perfect streak comes to an end. Seahawks 27, 49ers 21
Atlanta Falcons (-3) Over Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta looks like a new team after two dominant primetime victories, and now gets a nice scheduling bump as they take on a Ravens team that is likely without Lamar Jackson. The Falcons defense is thriving, their offense has the playmakers they need with a confident Michael Penix Jr. at the helm, and they still feel undervalued with a soft spread. When Jackson is eventually ruled out, any spread under a touchdown is the play on Atlanta. Falcons 28, Ravens 17
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) Over Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have the big names on their roster, but a lack of chemistry combined with nagging injuries have derailed their preseason Super Bowl hype. Meanwhile, the Bills offense is a thing of beauty with a healthy Josh Allen, and their defense is looking as good as they have in years. Los Angeles will eventually figure this out, but in a game between two heavyweights, I don’t have to be convinced to take the points. Bills 28, Rams 27
2026 Record: 27-36-1
Record over the last two seasons: 273-266-7
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