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NFL Week 4 Line Movements with Point Spread Analysis

by Jeremy Block - 9/30/2026

NFL Week 4 line movements Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens

Bettors have been on a roller coaster since the NFL season kicked off a few weeks ago, with quarterbacks going down left and right and defenses getting picked apart by injuries. Keeping track of who is actually healthy has turned into a full-time job.

Heading into Week 4, four games have moved enough to be worth a closer look, and each one could either save your slip or sink it. Here is what happened and what to do about it. 

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Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (Giants -2.5 to Cardinals -1.5)

Vegas rarely flips a favorite over after one bad weekend, and yet here we are with a four-point swing. The Giants put up a baseball score in a 12-7 win over Tennessee, which is not exactly the kind of performance that assures bettors they are a team to back. On the other side, Arizona went the distance with San Francisco in a 36-30 loss and made it clear their offense can move.

Backing the Cardinals is tempting given how each offense looked, but the Giants have a habit of playing to the level of whoever is across from them. This one has the possibility of being another slopfest, so I am staying away.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Bills -5.5 to Bills -6.5)

Hype only lasts as long as the results, and New England found that out in Jacksonville with a 35-6 beating that exposed an offense everyone thought was top-tier. Buffalo took care of the Chargers 24-16 and did what a Super Bowl contender is supposed to do.

One point does not sound like much, going from 5.5 to 6.5, but between two teams at this level it means something. Expect New England to show up angry after that whipping, but I still like Buffalo to win this by seven.

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (Colts -4.5 to Colts -3.5)

Second-string quarterbacks are not supposed to look as good as Marcus Mariota did last week, leading the Commanders past the Seahawks in a 33-31 win, which was the bigger surprise of the weekend even with Indianapolis knocking off Houston. Vegas took notice and trimmed a point off this number.

Laying three and a half on the road against a team that just played like that is a tough sell. Washington getting points at home is the sleeper of this week, and I am comfortable there.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (Ravens -10.5 to Ravens -11.5)

Seven points against the Giants was enough to talk anybody out of Tennessee's offense, and with Baltimore hanging 34 on Dallas that same weekend, the number nudged up another point.

Here is where everybody gets it wrong. The same thing happened in Week 2 against Philadelphia and the Titans hung around anyway. Baltimore's defense is still giving up 26 points a game, so Cam Ward and the Titans offense have a good shot to keep this interesting. The Ravens win outright, but Tennessee covers.

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