NFL Handicapping Articles
Free NFL Props Predictions - Week 5
by Jay Horne - 10/9/2009
Brett Farve had a big Monday night performance that kept us from sweeping on our weekly prop selections. However, we were still good enough to get back in the green for the season and look forward to some more action heading into week 5. There have been some big storylines during the week including Braylon Edwards trade to the New York Jets along with the signing of Michael Crabtree is San Francisco.
Denver Broncos Betting: Is Team Real Contender?
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 10/9/2009
They’ve been called the worst 4-0 team ever. They have been underdogs twice out of the first four games. They are underdogs again this week, at home. Oddsmakers put the season win total over/under at seven games.
Best and Worst ATS NFL Teams
by T.O. Whenham - 10/9/2009
To successfully handicap the NFL it is important to be constantly re-evaluating teams to understand how they are actually playing, and how they are performing from a betting perspective. If you don't do that then you can be betting based on how a team was performing, not how it is. That can be costly.
NFL Handicapping: Undefeated Teams
by T.O. Whenham - 10/9/2009
Through four weeks of the regular season in the NFL there are still five undefeated teams remaining. The potential for a team to the run the table has always been compelling, and even New England's undefeated season two years ago hasn't dimmed that - especially because the Patriots stumbled in the Super Bowl that year. Football fans want to see another undefeated team badly. So, is there going to be another one this year? It's obviously not very likely, but let's take a look at the chances each squad has:
Disappointing NFL Teams Against the Spread
by T.O. Whenham - 10/9/2009
Coming into each new NFL season I find it very valuable to look at the rosters, the schedules, and the intangibles to estimate how each team is going to play during the season. That gives you a baseline to start with to help you handicap the early season games. When you're right - like I was this year with San Francisco - then you have a jump on the betting public and you can make some real money.
NFL Handicapping: Steam Pick of the Week
by Josh Nagel - 10/8/2009
Steam moves in sports betting happen when large amounts of money come in on one side of a game, moving the line for that game collectively at sports books around the world. In this weekly feature we will examine an NFL game where a steam move took place and then give reasons to fade, or go against, the steam move.
UFL Preview – United Football League Betting
by T.O. Whenham - 10/7/2009
Tired of trying to handicap football games with almost unlimited information available? Looking to really gamble? Well, then betting on the United Football League might be just what you are looking for. The UFL's inaugural season starts on Thursday with shockingly little fanfare. Maybe people are just skeptical about new football leagues after the debacle of the XFL.
Monday Night Football - Packers at Vikings Preview
by Matt Severance - 10/5/2009
You may not have heard this, but there’s a current Viking playing in a super-hyped game tonight against his former Packer team. I, of course, speak of Minnesota kicker Ryan Longwell. Supposedly there’s some Favre guy who might see action tonight as well, with the Vikings five-point favorites on Bodog – as of this writing, approximately 64 percent of the betting public is leaning toward Minnesota, and that line has moved as much as two points at some books toward the Vikings since its open.
Free NFL Props Predictions - Week 4
by Jay Horne - 10/2/2009
There were a lot of exciting headlines from last week, like Brett Farve the “magic man” clutch play against the 49ers and Detroit ending their 19 game winless streak to carry us forward. We have some exciting side action including Brett Farve’s anticipated match-up with his former Green Bay Packers along with other profitable bets to consider heading into Week 4 of the NFL
Football Betting: Early Week Line Movements
by Robert Ferringo - 9/29/2009
And a very definitive theme is starting to develop in this space. The early college football movements once again got creamed last week, going just 1-5 against the spread. The NFL, however, softened the blow while posting a perfect 3-0 mark. For the season, the college early line movements are just 8-18 ATS while the NFL moves are a solid 6-2 ATS. Overall, the early big movers are just 14-20 ATS. Here is this week’s action:
NFL Handicapping: Can Winless Teams Rebound?
by T.O. Whenham - 9/25/2009
Some of these teams are going to continue their losing ways, but others are going to turn things around - the Chargers lost their first two last year and still won their division. This is how I would rank the nine winless teams in order of their likelihood of salvaging their season, and of presenting some real value for bettors as they do so:
NFL Betting: Saints Soaring And Scoring
by T.O. Whenham - 9/24/2009
You don't have to dig very hard to find impressive statistics to show the strength of the New Orleans offense. The team has become the first since 2001 to open the season with 40 or more points in their first two games. No team has scored more than the 93 they have tallied in their first two games since 1968. It goes on and on.
NFL Betting: Five Potential Turnaround Teams
by T.O. Whenham - 9/24/2009
Jumping to conclusions can be even more dangerous after two weeks because the public assumes that they are seeing trends, and that the teams really are what they have seen so far. Here's a look at five teams that can be quite reasonably assumed to be better than they have appeared so far this year. Because of the starts they have had the public should start to turn against them - at least relative to the support they normally get. That can create real opportunities for value seekers with a long term view.
Free NFL Props Predictions - Week 3
by Jay Horne - 9/24/2009
However, we will quickly turn our focus to this week’s earliest betting lines and try and jump on some of the side action before they are no longer available with hopes to have another advantageous week against the books. Call this the “Yes Week” based on the predictions:
Ferringo Report On NFL Week 2
by Robert Ferringo - 9/22/2009
Below is the Ferringo Report, which are my random and nonsensical ramblings about last week’s action. I didn’t break down all of the games this week (there were three two that I don’t mention in here) but all of this should just give you a little bit of an idea of some of the things I noticed while either watching the games in real time or breaking down the tape on Monday.
Monday Night Football Preview - Colts at Dolphins
by Matt Severance - 9/21/2009
Since the NFL went to a 12-team playoff format back in 1990, only 22 teams (13.7 percent) have reached the postseason after starting 0-2. Only 10 (6.3 percent) have won their division. But an 0-2 hole sure seems likely for Miami if it doesn’t play better than last week’s 19-7 road loss to Atlanta. Miami, which set an NFL record (matched by the Giants) with just 13 giveaways last year, turned the ball over four times last week, which lead to 10 Falcons points.
NFL Handicapping: Situations Where Alternate Lines Could Give an Edge
by T.O. Whenham - 9/18/2009
For most bettors, alternate NFL lines are viewed as the domain of crackpots. Lots of bettors don't even know that they exist, and if they do they don't see any good reason why you would bet them. The fact is, though, that in many situations, the alternate lines offer you a chance to get much more value from your bets than the regular NFL points spreads and money lines ever offer the casual bettor.
The Ferringo NFL Report
by Robert Ferringo - 9/18/2009
Well boys and girls, the Ferringo Report is back by popular demand. I will have my weekly nonsensical ravings and rants in this space for your viewing pleasure. Week 1 is in the books and, with few exception, things went pretty smoothly and according to script. Don’t worry though: that will change soon enough.
Rams Could Match Lions Record for Futility
by T.O. Whenham - 9/16/2009
The story we kept hearing coming into this season was that new coach Steve Spagnuolo had overhauled the attitude in St. Louis and had the team moving in the right direction. The story I am more interested in concerning the team after their brutal opening shutout to the Seahawks is whether the Rams can win a game at all.
How Major Defensive Injuries Will Affect Steelers-Bears Game
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 9/15/2009
Entering Soldier Field Sunday afternoon you have two teams notorious for vicious defenses but both missing the leaders of those defensive units. While it may seem like a similar situation, the reality is entirely different. The Bears’ 31-year old middle linebacker, six-time pro bowler and former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Brian Urlacher is out for the season with a dislocated wrist.
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