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2025 Houston Texans Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Season Win Totals

by Ryan Cobbett - 8/18/2025

Houston Texans predictions Nico Collins

The Houston Texans won their division despite a lousy end to their regular season. After a 6-2 start, they limped their way to a 4-5 finish. With a 10-7 record, despite an even point differential, the Texans took on the Los Angeles Chargers in the first round of the playoffs where they dominated with a 32-12 victory. Unfortunately, their season ended in the second round when they fell just short against the Kansas City Chiefs in a 23-14 loss.

The Texans offense struggled last season due to the weak unit upfront and the injuries. They ranked 22nd in the YPG and averaged just 21.9 PPG. C.J. Stroud was the second most sacked quarterback in the NFL last season as he was sacked 52 times. Despite the weak offensive line, he still managed to throw for 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns. He threw 12 interceptions which were tied for the seventh most in the league last season. Stroud added another 233 yards on the ground. Joe Mixon led the ground game for the Texans as he finished with 1,016 yards and 11 touchdowns on 245 carries. Mixon was also involved in the pass game as he added another 309 yards and one touchdown receiving. Nico Collins led the receivers with 1,006 yards while also hauling in a team best seven touchdowns despite playing in only 12 games. Tank Dell was having a productive year with 667 yards and three touchdowns before going down to a horrific injury that limited him to 14 games on the year. Dalton Schultz finished third on the team with 532 yards and he was the only tight end/wide receiver to appear in all 17 games last season.

The defense was the true strength of this team despite some injuries as well. They ranked fifth in the league in allowed YPG with a suffocating secondary that also held opponents to 21.9 PPG. Henry To’oTo’o led the defense with 105 tackles last season while also adding 1.5 sacks, seven TFL’s, three pass deflections and one interception. He was the only Texans player to record more than 75 tackles on the season. Calen Bullock and Derek Stingley Jr. were tied for the team lead in interceptions with five while the two combined for 29 pass deflections and 108 tackles. Danielle Hunter was the team leader in sacks with 12 while Will Anderson Jr. was right on his heels with 11. Hunter also maintained a slight lead over his defensive line counterpart as he finished the year with 17 TFL’s while Anderson recorded 16.

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Key Additions/Losses

After being the weakest link a year ago, Houston decided to restructure its offensive line. They shipped Laremy Tunsil to Washington while also sending Kenyon Green to Philadelphia. Kendrick Green signed with the Buffalo Bills and Shaq Mason was also not welcomed back. The offense also let backup quarterback Case Keenum walk as well as receivers Stefon Diggs and Robert Woods. The defense lost linebacker Devin White to Las Vegas, Jeff Okudah to Minnesota, and Eric Murray to Jacksonville while edge rusher Jerry Hughes and cornerbacks Myles Bryant and Ka’dar Hollan are free agents.

The rebuilding of the offensive line led to the additions of Trent Brown, Cam Robinson, Ed Ingram, and Laken Tomlinson. The offense also brought in Nick Chubb to create a dynamic duo with Mixon in the backfield as well as Braxton Berrios and Christian Kirk to boost the wide receiver room behind Collins. The defense retained their leader in sacks while also adding Nick Niemann, Sheldon Rankins, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Jalen Pitre.

New Kids on the Block

Despite not having a first-round pick, the Texans managed to bring in a decent rookie class from the draft. With their two second round picks they drafted wide receiver Jayden Higgins out of Iowa State and offensive tackle Aireontae Ersery out of Minnesota. They also added Higgins running mate out of Iowa State in Jaylin Noel in the third-round while also boosting the secondary depth with cornerback Jaylin Smith out of USC. The rest of their draft class is as follows: Woody Marks (RB, USC), Jaylen Reed (S, Penn State), Graham Mertz (QB, Florida), Kyonte Hamilton (DT, Rutgers), and Luke Lachey (TE, Iowa).

X-Factors

Health- The Texans only running back to appear in all 17 games was Dare Ogunbowale who recorded just 30 carries. Mixon was held to 14 games while Pierce was held to 11. As for receivers, Schultz was the only one healthy for all 17 games. Collins was held to 12 while Dell appeared in 14, Stefon Diggs managed to appear in just eight, and John Metchie III played in just 13. On defense, big names like To’oTo’o, Anderson Jr., and Jalen Pitre all missed multiple contests. This roster is one of the best on paper, but none of that matters if they can’t stay healthy during the upcoming season.

Offensive Line- Not only is it imperative for their skill position players to stay healthy, but the offensive line also needs to gel quickly and perform better than last year’s unit. With the addition of five new offensive linemen things could take a while for the line to really hit their stride as a unit, but this group can play a huge factor in how far the Texans can go this season as this was their weakest link last season.

Houston Texans Notable Odds

Super Bowl Winner: +2400

AFC Champion: +1100

AFC South Winner: +110

NFL MVP- CJ Stroud: +2500

AP Offensive Player of the Year- Nico Collins: +1600

AP Defensive Player of the Year- Will Anderson Jr.: +1600

Houston Texans Schedule Breakdown

Predicted Win Total: 9.5 Games

The Texans win total is screaming free money. The win total is set at 9.5 and the Texans appear to have 10 wins on the schedule with only two games coming up as losses. Their Week 5 game at Baltimore and their Week 14 contest in Kansas City are likely losses, but the remainder of the schedule is somewhat favorable for Houston and should result in them repeating another 10+ win season. They get the benefit of playing Tennessee and Jacksonville twice and they should win at least one matchup against Indianapolis. Outside of their divisional games, the Texans play host to Arizona and Las Vegas who are bottom dwellers. They do have Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Denver, and Buffalo on the schedule, but they all have to come to Houston and a 3-2 record in those games plays huge dividends towards this Over.  

2025 Houston Texans Predictions

After looking at the schedule, the Texans will hit the over on their win total. If last year’s team was able to reach the double-digit win mark, this year’s team will as well with an improved offensive line and players returning to health. Stroud will see a jump in numbers thanks to some more time and protection in front of him and he has plenty of weapons around him with a Chubb/Mixon duo in the backfield and plenty of wide receivers. He is a dark horse MVP candidate, and his +2500 odds are worth some couch change. Collins will lead this deep wide receiver core but will share plenty of reps with the receivers behind him so avoid the temptation of picking him to win the AP Offensive Player of the Year. All in all, the Texans will win the division again and they are an under the radar Super Bowl candidate heading into the season.

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