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2025 Kansas City Chiefs Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Season Win Totals

by Ryan Cobbett - 8/21/2025

Kansas City Chiefs predictions Xavier Worthy

The Kansas City Chiefs won nine straight games to open the season last year and their first loss came in Week 11 on the road in Buffalo. After that loss, they won six straight and finished with a 15-2 record in the regular season, which tied Detroit for the best mark in the league. Despite finishing with a 15-2 record, Kansas City finished the year with a +59-point differential, which ranked third in their division, fifth in the AFC, and just 11th in the NFL. The Chiefs won their first two playoff games in dramatic fashion with questionable calls in both their games against Houston and Buffalo, but they found themselves back in the Super Bowl. Their rematch against Philadelphia did not go their way as they were dominated in a 40-22 loss on the big stage.

The Chiefs’ offense ranked in the middle of the league in both YPG and PPG as they recorded 327.6 YPG last season and 22.6 PPG. Patrick Mahomes finished the year with 3,928 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions last season. He also added another 307 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Kareem Hunt led the Kansas City ground game with 728 yards and seven touchdowns on 200 carries. Isiah Pacheco finished second with 310 yards though he was limited to just seven games. Travis Kelce led the team with 823 receiving yards while he also recorded three touchdowns, though he did fumble the ball twice. Xavier Worthy finished with 638 receiving yards and led the team with six receiving touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins was limited to just 10 games last season though he still managed to haul in four touchdowns and 437 yards on 41 receptions.

Kansas City’s defense was the strength of this team last year. They allowed just 320.6 YPG and held opponents to less than 20 PPG. Nick Bolton led the team with 106 tackles while he also led the way with 11 TFL’s. Jaden Hicks finished with three interceptions while Justin Reid, Bryan Cook, Chamarri Conner, and Trent McDuffie all recorded two interceptions each last season. McDuffie was the team leader in pass deflections with 13 while Reid finished with nine. George Karlaftis was the Chiefs sacks leader with eight while Tershawn Wharton finished with 6.5 and Chris Jones tallied five.

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Key Additions/Losses

Backup quarterback Carson Wentz became a free agent at the end of the season while the offense also lost Samaje Perine, Mecole Hardman, Hopkins, Justin Watson, Jody Forston, D.J. Humphries, and Joe Thuney. The defense did take a hit as well with the loss of Wharton to Carolina, Reid to New Orleans, Joshua Uche to Philadelphia, and Derrick Nnadi to the Jets.

The Chiefs did what they could to fill the holes left in their roster. They added Gardner Minshew and Bailey Zappe to backup Mahomes. Elijah Mitchell joined to backup Hunt while the offensive line added Jaylon Moore and Trey Smith. They also added Jerry Tillery to the defensive line and Kristian Fulton to the secondary.

New Kids on the Block

Kansas City had seven picks in last year’s draft, and their draft class isn’t entirely impressive. Their first-round pick, Josh Simmons, could end up being one of the most productive players from this draft class over the course of his career if he can stay healthy. He fell to the end of the first round thanks to some injuries, but he was once thought of as a potential Top 10 talent. The rest of the Chiefs draft class is as follows: Omarr Norman-Lott (DT, Tennessee), Ashton Gillotte (Edge, Louisville), Nohl Williams (CB, California), Jalen Royals (WR, Utah State), Jeffrey Bassa (LB, Oregon), and Brashard Smith (RB, SMU).

X-Factors

Aging Core- Mahomes is near 30, Kelce is 35, while Jones is 31. This is by no means a young core for the Chiefs. Now they are proven winners, but the winning window may be closing as this roster won’t have that much longer together. They already lack a true WR1 and any decline for Kelce will be incredibly detrimental for this offense. Same goes for Jones. The defense is a lot weaker without him. Kansas City will still be one of the best teams in the league, but they are one or two major injuries away from being a tier below the top Super Bowl Contenders this season.

Kansas City Chiefs Notable Odds

Super Bowl Winner: +800

AFC Champion: +420

AFC West Winner: -105

NFL MVP- Patrick Mahomes: +650

AP Defensive Player of the Year- Chris Jones: +4700

AP Offensive Player of the Year- Travis Kelce: +40000

Kansas City Chiefs Schedule Breakdown

Predicted Win Total: 11.5 Games

After going through this schedule, I am taking the Under on the win total. The Chiefs have a tough schedule. They have road games against Buffalo, Denver, and Dallas that could be trouble, but the problem is their home schedule is perhaps the toughest in the NFL. They have home games against Philadelphia, Baltimore, Detroit, Washington, Denver, Houston, and the Los Angeles Chargers. There is a real chance they are a .500 team at home this season, and even that would be a win in itself. In order for the Chiefs to reach the 12+ win mark, there is little margin for error. The division is much improved and the top AFC teams like Buffalo and Baltimore may finally be able to avenge the many years of losing to Kansas City. This Chiefs team will win a lot of games, but it is hard to see them reaching 12+ wins with this schedule.

2025 Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

While I am on the Under for the win total, the Chiefs are still a major Super Bowl contender. Injuries and declination in play are reasonable questions for this aging core, but if the top guys can repeat expectations again this season, Kansas City will be one of the best teams in the league. At +800 and a roster full of Super Bowl veterans, they are definitely worth a look for a Super Bowl future. Even at +420 there is great value in taking them to win the conference. Don’t give up on this Chiefs team yet, but the schedule is a problem.

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