2023 Miami Dolphins Predictions with Season Win Total Odds
Top to bottom, the Miami Dolphins have one of the best rosters in the NFL.
So it is the height of insanity to me that the Dolphins front office remains committed to Tua “Where Am I?” Tagavailoa at quarterback.
Tagavailoa’s concussion issues were a major storyline of last year’s season. The injury-prone signal caller has missed 14 games in three seasons, and he is one more big hit away from potentially having his career ended because of brain damage.
Yet the Dolphins decided against making a major move in the offseason and are sticking with Tua heading into this campaign.
It is a decision that could potentially sabotage Miami’s best team in over 20 years.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
MIAMI DOLPHINS 2023 OFFENSE
Tagavailoa is 23-13 in his 36 career starts. He is accurate, completing around 66 percent for his career, and he throws a catchable ball. When he’s healthy.
The Dolphins averaged 24.9 points in the 13 games they played with Tua under center and just 16.3 points per game without him.
Miami was still kind of a boom or bust offense with Tagavailoa at the helm. They scored over 30 points in five of his 13 starts but were held to 17 or fewer in five other contests.
The dynamic receiving duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill is nearly impossible to match up with. They combined for nearly 200 receptions, over 3,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. Braxton Berrios, Ced Wilson and Robbie Chosen provide plenty of other options.
Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are a weak running back combination. But keep an eye on rookie Devon Achane. He could be a Darren Sproles-type impact player and could give the league’s eighth-worst running offense (with the second-fewest attempts) a major jolt.
All eyes will be on the offensive line this season. Not just because they are the most directly responsible for keeping Tagavailoa upright, but also because it may be the weakest unit on the entire team. Miami ranked just No. 17 in offensive line efficiency last season and needs to be better.
MIAMI DOLPHINS 2023 DEFENSE
I will be honest. One of the primary reasons that I am buying into the Dolphins hype heading into the season is because of new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
Fangio has been one of the best defensive minds in the sport over the past 30 years. Over the past decade alone, Fangio has built Top 5 defenses in San Francisco, Chicago, and Denver.
Fangio isn’t exactly starting from scratch in Miami.
The Dolphins defense is stacked with talent. Raekwon Davis is a mountain at nose tackle. Christian Wilkins busted out and showed star potential last year. If they get a bounce back season from Emmanuel Ogbah, the defensive line is set.
Linebackers Bradley Chubb, David Long, Jerome Baker and Jaelan Phillips are excellent. Veteran backups Duke Riley and Andrew Van Ginkel would be starters on several teams and provide the Dolphins depth.
This secondary, even without injured corner Jalen Ramsey, could be special. Xavien Howard is a Pro Bowl corner. Safeties Jevon Holland and Brandon Jones are both entering their primes, and there is a wealth of talent and experience waiting in the wings.
Miami has to find a way to generate more turnovers. They were No. 31 in the league last year in takeaways (14), and that caused them to finish with a minus-7 turnover differential.
The Fins were No. 6 in the league in rushing defense but No. 27 against the pass. If Ramsey’s talent and Fangio’s scheme can bulk up the passing defense, then Miami will be a major player in the AFC race.
MIAMI DOLPHINS 2023 SCHEDULE
Miami is forced to play three of its first four games on the road, ending that tough stretch with a game in Orchard Park. They will make up for it on the back end with four of their final five games at home. However, that negates their September heat advantage.
Sun, Sep 10 4:25 PM @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Sep 17 8:20 PM @ New England Patriots
Sun, Sep 24 1:00 PM vs. Denver Broncos
Sun, Oct 1 1:00 PM @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Oct 8 1:00 PM vs. New York Giants
Sun, Oct 15 1:00 PM vs. Carolina Panthers
Sun, Oct 22 8:20 PM @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Oct 29 1:00 PM vs. New England Patriots
Sun, Nov 5 9:30 AM @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Nov 19 1:00 PM vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Fri, Nov 24 3:00 PM @ New York Jets
Sun, Dec 3 1:00 PM @ Washington Redskins
Mon, Dec 11 8:15 PM vs. Tennessee Titans
Sun, Dec 17 1:00 PM vs. New York Jets
Sun, Dec 24 4:25 PM vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Dec 31 1:00 PM @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Jan 7 7:00 PM vs. Buffalo Bills
MIAMI DOLPHINS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS
Miami hasn’t made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since a run of five straight postseason appearances between 1997-2001.
There is absolutely no margin for error in the AFC. And for my money, the AFC East is the second-best division in football.
If Miami is going to reach its potential, they don’t only need Tagavailoa to stay healthy – something he hasn’t done in his entire career, dating back to his injury-plagued college stint – but they need him to play at a high level.
Miami has the non-quarterback talent to overtake Buffalo and compete with the likes of Kansas City and Cincinnati. But if they don’t get top-notch quarterback play, they can’t be expected to beat out squads led by Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers.
The Dolphins are going to have every opportunity to prove themselves against the best of the best. With Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Baltimore all on the schedule, along with a pair of games against the Bills, the Dolphins will have to earn everything.
A season win total of 9.5 seems more than manageable for this roster. I want nothing to do with this number at this point. The AFC East is going to be tough to decipher, so I’ll hold off on making any major proclamations about this group.
If you want a lean, I would lean on the ‘over’. But this won’t be a number that I am betting.
Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past 13 years, earning nearly $40,000 in total football profit (average profit: +$3,800) between 2010-2019 alone. He has posted 9 of 13 winning seasons (including five of seven winning years) and produced an amazing 64 of 100 winning football months over the past 16 years. Robert has hit at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 1,000 totals picks and has posted 14 of 17 winning Super Bowls. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.
Most Recent NFL Handicapping
- NFL Draft Player Predictions and Betting Odds
- Wild, Fun, Wacky and Weird NFL Draft Props with Predictions
- Best Bets for the 2024 NFL Draft: Players to be Picked at Exact Order
- 2024 NFL Draft Over/Under Best Bets by Position
- Who Will Be the Las Vegas Raiders Starting QB in Week 1? Odds and Betting Predictions
- Who Will Be the Minnesota Vikings Starting QB in Week 1? Odds and Betting Predictions
- Who Will Be the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Starting QB in Week 1? Odds and Betting Predictions
- NFL Free Agency Predictions: Odds and Betting Props for Key Players
- Handicapping the Super Bowl teams for Next Season: Chiefs and 49ers Prop Bets
- 2025 Super Bowl Predictions