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2022 NFL Draft Betting Predictions for Props

by Sean Barnard - 4/20/2022

NFL Draft betting predictions Malik Willis

The NFL season has been in our rearview mirrors for quite some time. There has been a frenzy of news surrounding free agency as teams attempt to build their roster for a better chance next season. One of the biggest keys to this team development is through the NFL Draft, which will begin on Thursday, April 28.

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QB Odds:

There is not a consensus top overall quarterback, which makes this draft interesting. It is a fairly weak QB class, although there has been some movement in the positive direction for the QBs. None of the quarterbacks are expected to go in the Top 5, with Malik Willis having the best odds of this at +300. When looking at the race for the first QB drafted, there are two lead candidates who have a chance.

Malik Willis is the favorite to be the first quarterback at -130. Willis initially played his college ball at Auburn before transferring to Liberty, where he established himself as a legitimate pro prospect. He threw for 5,107 yards and 47 touchdowns in two seasons with the program. Willis possesses some unique athleticism and a near-ideal playstyle for the modern NFL. The scheme of the team in which he is drafted could greatly impact his NFL future, but he certainly has an intriguing skillset.

In contrast, Kenny Pickett is looked at as the more traditional quarterback prospect and has the best arm out of the QB bunch. Pickett has a much more impressive statistical resume, but this is largely due to him receiving time as the starter for all 5 years at Pittsburgh. In total, he was able to tally over 12,000 yards and 81 touchdowns. Pickett has +130 odds to be the first QB off the board in this draft. Desmond Ridder (+1000) and Matt Corral (+2500) also are not completely out of the QB debate for the first pick, but Pickett and Willis have done an excellent job separating themselves during the combine and meetings.

There is sure to be a great amount of smoke leading up to the draft, but I feel confident in locking in Willis to be the first QB off the board. His intriguing skillset is too much to pass on, and the most likely landing spot appears to be the Seahawks with the 6th pick. Odds of -130 is not the high payout prop that most people are in search of, but this is great value for the top QB prospect considering how large the line can often get for the top QB. Taking Willis for under 9.5 draft slots at +110 also seems like a strong wager.

Defensive Players off the Board

Excluding the offensive line prospects, this draft class is much deeper on the defensive side of the ball. Aiden Hutchinson is the odds-on favorite to be the first overall pick after setting the Michigan record for most sacks in a season last year with 13. Another pass rusher has climbed to the top of the draft, with Kayvon Thibodeaux now being pegged as the likely second overall pick.

It is not only a top-heavy draft as there are at least 6 defensive backs that are likely to be taken in the first round. If CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner goes off the board early, it could lead to a run on defensive backs, which would change the draft. Regardless, this should be expected to be a defense-heavy draft, and hammering over 15.5 defensive players drafted in the first round is the pick. The line is set at -125 on most books for this bet.

Evan Neal to be the first O-Lineman

In addition to defense, this is sure to be a draft that is heavy in offensive line selections. The over/under betting projections are at 7.5 for first-round selections at the position. There are two frontrunners for the most likely first big man off the board in Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu.

The lines have changed a great deal over the past few weeks, with Evan Neal originally being the massive favorite. The Alabama tackle has slid in recent weeks, with his current line sitting at +115. Neal would be the fourth straight Alabama offensive lineman to be drafted in the first round and was regarded as the surefire No. 1 prospect for most of the pre-draft process. He stands 6’7” and weighs 360 pounds. The tackle has seen the over/under for selection number has slid from 2.5 to 4.5 in recent days. Neal has been strongly linked to the Giants at the 5th pick, but a team could certainly trade ahead of this pick if they are interested.

Ekwonu has been on a massive rise in recent weeks. NFL teams see the appeal in the tackle also being able to play at interior guard as well. This is appealing for NFL teams given Ekwonu’s  6’4” height and 320-pound weight. Oddsmakers’ originally listed Ekwonu’s draft projection at 5.5 picks, but we have seen this shift to 3.5 with the line for him to be the first offensive lineman taken currently listed at -141.

While Vegas typically knows more, the rise of Ekwonu’s stock may have more smoke than fire behind it. Evan Neal is the more talented tackle, and this position is prioritized much more heavily by NFL teams. Taking him to be the first tackle off the board at plus money is impressive value.

Before placing a wager, it is important to note that betting the draft is a different beast than a normal game. There is no live game action or flow of the game to play out. The betting lines typically see much more movement than traditional game lines, and a surprise pick could have a variety of domino effects.

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