2023 Tennessee Titans Predictions with Season Win Total Odds

by Robert Ferringo - 7/27/2023

Tennessee Titans predictions Derrick Henry

Mike Vrabel is one of the coaches whose value is difficult to quantify.

Let’s try anyway.

His teams have been consistent overachievers in his five years at the helm, posting four winning seasons and beating their Las Vegas season win total in four of Vrabel’s five years.

Vrabel’s last three Titans teams have beaten their Pythagorean Win Expectations by a full four games, and Tennessee, as a franchise, has beaten their PWE by eight full games in his tenure, one of the highest marks in the NFL over that period.

Again: The Titans are overachievers that always seem to find ways to win more games than their talent should allow.

That’s a hell of a skill to have. And Tennessee will need so summon all of it this season to avoid falling into The Abyss of Rebuilding.

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TENNESSEE TITANS 2023 OFFENSE

Derrick Henry will continue to add stat lines to his Hall of Fame resume this season. He led the NFL in carries for a third time in four years last season and will be the team’s workhorse again this season. Henry also added a career-high 33 catches last season, running his total number of touches to 382.

Historically, running backs that touch the ball over 300 times in a season have been prone to injury the following year. In 2020, Henry had nearly 400 touches (378 carries, 19 receptions). The next season he was hurt and played in just eight games.

If anything happens to Henry, this offense is screwed.

Ryan Tannehill is now 35 years old and coming off an injury-riddled 2022 campaign. Tennessee has chosen potential successors (Malik Willis, Will Levis) in each of the past two drafts.

“At some point the Titans will have to find out what they have in Willis and Levis. If they get off to a slow start they might lean into the rebuild…and go with the kids under center.”

The Titans made a desperation signing of DeAndre Hopkins to vault themselves back into relevance. They are hoping that second-year man Treylon Burks can make The Leap, and that Hopkins’ presence will help take some of the pressure off.

Hopkins could have been a bomb that went off in the NFL, with his signing shifting the balance of power if he landed somewhere like Kansas City, Buffalo, New England or New Orleans. Instead, he opted for a little more money and a lot more irrelevance.

Tennessee’s offensive line had been a strength. They’ve lost four starters from last year’s line, though. Now they will lean on overpriced free agent pickup Andre Dillard and rookie Peter Skoronski at the tackle spots, while a new interior tries to pave the way for Henry.

The Titans offense has been slowly atrophying since it finished No. 4 in scoring and No. 2 in yards in 2020. First they lost OC Arthur Smith. Then they bumbled away Brown. Now their o-line has imploded.

Other than that, everything is fine.

TENNESSEE TITANS 2023 DEFENSE

Things are looking only slightly better on the defensive side of the ball.

Jeffery Simmons is one of the best defenders in the NFL and can still dominate up front. If anything happens to him, the front seven could crumble.

Tennessee has four new starting linebackers. That contrasts with their secondary, which is the team strength due in part to its cohesiveness.

“The Titans will spend this year trying to avoid falling into The Abyss of Rebuilding.”

The safety duo of Kevin Byard (who has already said he wants out) and Amani Hooker is rock solid. And if they get anything from 2021 first rounder Caleb Farley or free agent pickup Sean Murphy-Bunting, then this could end up being one of the best secondaries in the AFC.

The Titans fielded a Top 10 scoring defense in 2021, and they were in the Top 10 in turnover ratio in 2019 and 2020. Running the ball on offense and forcing turnovers have been the secret sauce for this team.

If they can’t do the former and don’t do the latter, things are going to get ugly for this group really quick.

TENNESSEE TITANS 2023 SCHEDULE

Week 1: 9/10 at New Orleans Saints, 1 PM, CBS

Week 2: 9/17 vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1 PM, CBS

Week 3: 9/24 at Cleveland Browns, 1 PM, CBS

Week 4: 10/1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 1 PM, FOX

Week 5: 10/8 at Indianapolis Colts, 1 PM, CBS

Week 6: 10/15 vs. Baltimore Ravens (London), 9:30 AM, NFL Network

Week 7: Bye Week

Week 8: 10/29 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1 PM, CBS

Week 9: 11/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday), 8:15 PM, Amazon

Week 10: 11/12 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM, CBS

Week 11: 11/19 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 PM, CBS

Week 12: 11/26 vs. Carolina Panthers, 1 PM, FOX

Week 13: 12/3 vs. Indianapolis Colts, 1 PM, CBS

Week 14: 12/11 at. Miami Dolphins (Monday), 8:15 PM, ESPN

Week 15: 12/17 vs. Houston Texans, 1 PM, CBS

Week 16: 12/24 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 PM, CBS

Week 17: 12/31 at Houston Texans, 1 PM, FOX

Week 18: TBD vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, TBD, TBD

TENNESSEE TITANS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

The Titans will spend this season trying to avoid falling into the Abyss of Rebuilding.

I think they are already over the ledge. And they are the only ones that don’t know it. Yet.

I want to give Vrabel the benefit of the doubt. He’s an old-school guy that relies on the tried-and-true approach of running the ball and playing great defense. His teams are always physically imposing, and that style assaults opponents mentally.

The problem is the talent level on this team is really low.

They just don’t have enough good players. And if anything happens to any of their pillars – Henry, Dillard, Simmons – there is absolutely no one on the roster that can fill the gap.

Finally, at some point, the Titans will have to find out what they have in Willis and Levis. If they get off to a slow start, they might lean into the rebuild, bench Tannehill, and go with the kids under center.

There’s a great chance that the Titans start the season 1-5. Their most winnable game during that stretch is actually on the road at Indy. And they close their opening kick with a game against the Ravens in London in Week 6, prior to their bye.

If the Titans are 2-4 or 1-5, then I really think they are going to embrace the tank on this season and go to Willis or Levis (or both).

That’s what I expect to happen. Even playing in the worst division in football, I can’t see this team getting to eight wins. I put them around six, give or take a win, and they should fail to top their season win total (7.5) for the second straight season.

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