Back at it - another week of picking straight up winners in the NFL. Here's hoping that this week provides a more interesting set of games. Six of 12 Sunday games last week were decided by at least four touchdowns - talk about a cure for insomnia.

Denver at Baltimore - A tough one to start. I really believe in the Broncos, and think they have the QB, the system, the coaching, and the personnel to make some noise. That being said, this is where I expect them to lose for the first time. Baltimore is frustrated - like a caged animal being poked with a stick. They have played well, but keep finding ways to barely lose. They are better than a 3-3 team, and they will show it here. This is going to be a fun, smash-mouth game. Take the Ravens.

Houston at Buffalo - Don't look now, but the Bills almost have their acts together. They have won two road games in a row, and aren't looking nearly as incompetent as we know they are capable of. I am tempting to make it three straight for them, but I can't. Houston has also won two in a row, and is playing with confidence and toughness. Take the Texans.

Cleveland at Chicago - I don't know what is wrong with the Bears and what can explain that horrific showing against the Bengals last week. It's nothing that the Browns can't fix, though. Cleveland is really, really lousy, and will be sorely outmatched here. Take the Bears.

Seattle at Dallas - Miles Austin is the best NFL story of the year after two impossibly good offensive games. I didn't see it coming, but then no one could have - even Austin's own mother. Seattle put forth a disgusting performance last week, and I don't see how they stand a chance against the re-energized Dallas offense. Take the Cowboys.

St. Louis at Detroit - I wouldn't watch this game even if watching it was the only way to save the world. Awful, awful game. Both teams are broken almost beyond repair, but I think that Detroit is marginally less pathetic, so they should be able to pull this of at home. Take the Lions.

San Francisco at Indianapolis - I really like the Niners, and think that Alex Smith is going to do some damage now that he is starting full time. I wish I could pick the upset here, but I just can't - not the way that the Colts are playing with such confidence and swagger. It might be a different story if this game was in the Bay, but the home team has an edge here. Take the Colts.

Miami at New York Jets - The Jets have already beaten the Dolphins in Miami, Mark Sanchez has found his swagger again, and Miami has to be reeling after blowing a massive lead to the Saints. This should be a good divisional contest, but the Jets have too much to offer. Take the Jets.

New York Giants at Philadelphia - The Giants have lost two in a row, and haven't looked particularly good doing it. The Eagles had a rough loss two games back, but ironed out a lot of the kinks on Monday night. The home team is the hotter team, and that's usually a pretty good indicator of success. Take the Eagles.

Jacksonville at Tennessee - Sooner or later the Titans are going to look good and win a game. Sooner or later, Denver is going to be swallowed up by the ocean as the polar ice caps melt. Neither one is going to happen any time soon. Jacksonville is a decent team and Tennessee is in turmoil - they can't even decide who to start at QB. Take the Jaguars.

Oakland at San Diego - The Chargers aren't fixed just yet, but they played their best game of the season last week. Oakland is terrible and totally unreliable. I really don't see a circumstance where I would trust them with JaMarcus Russell at the helm, and he will be again here. Take the Chargers.

Carolina at Arizona - Jake Delhomme has thrown four TDs and 13 interceptions. Ouch. The Panthers don't really have a better option. Double ouch. Arizona is coming off one of the most impressive, eye-opening wins any team has had all year. They are definitely a playoff team. Unlike Carolina. Take the Cardinals.

Minnesota at Green Bay - This one should be fun. The crowd is obviously going to be a major factor. The Packers will be desperate to win this one, and they have a blueprint for how to disrupt the Vikings' offense thanks to the Steelers. I'm concerned about the Green Bay offensive line, but the Vikings D-line wasn't great last week either. Take the Packers.

Atlanta at New Orleans - Atlanta is a god team, but I think that their loss to the Cowboys last week showed that they aren't quite as good as we thought they are. The Saints, on the other hand, were incredibly impressive with their comeback at Miami, and have yet to show serious holes that they haven't plugged quickly. Take the Saints.