NFL Office Pool Picks Week 13 - ATS Predictions for Every Game!
If you win or lose your season-long office pool, it won’t be because of one lucky pick or bad beat. Successfully coming out on top after 272 regular-season games is no easy task, and anything above a 50% win rate is incredibly impressive. Week 12 was not kind to us, as we went 7-9 against the spread with three picks missing by two points or less. It was an interesting week across the league, as the favorites went 10-4 straight up, but just 5-9 against the spread. All sixteen teams are in action this week, so let’s get right into your against-the-spread picks.
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Detroit Lions (-2.5) Over Green Bay Packers
This is a huge game for both teams, but we have to side with the soft spread with Detroit at home. Ford Field has been a fortress this season, and the Lions are good enough to win by at least a field goal. Detroit certainly has flaws, but its ability to pile on points will allow it to outwork a struggling Packers offense. Lions 34, Packers 21
Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) Over Kansas City Chiefs
The Cowboys offense will always keep them in games, and we haven’t seen enough explosivity from the Chiefs to warrant a cover on the road. Isaiah Pacheco is expected to return, so maybe the Chiefs will be able to run the ball again, but a spread with the hook makes Dallas the only option. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are the best 1-2 combo in the league, and whether it’s an outright win or a backdoor cover, Dallas will keep this one close. Cowboys 27, Chiefs 24
Cincinnati Bengals (+7) Over Baltimore Ravens
Joe Burrow is back for the Bengals, and this is a must-win game if they want to keep their slim playoff chances alive. The Bengals' defense has improved in recent weeks, but their point totals have been punished by turnovers on offense. Burrow will steady the ship, Ja'Marr Chase is back from injury, and this will be a surprisingly close contest to wrap up Thanksgiving. We won’t call for the outright upset from the Bengals, but covering this thick line is certainly within their reach. Ravens 24, Bengals 20
Chicago Bears (+7) Over Philadelphia Eagles
There is no reason the Bears should be a full touchdown underdog here. They have won eight of their last nine games, and they are playing complementary football, while the Eagles are one of the worst 8-3 teams the NFL has ever seen. Jalen Hurts has been inconsistent on offense; they were shut out in the second half by a terrible Dallas defense last week, and their run game has completely fallen off a cliff. Strong defensive play from Philly will keep them in the game, but this spread should be much closer to a field goal than a touchdown. Bears 24, Eagles 17
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) Over Carolina Panthers
This is a thick spread for a road team, but the inability to move the ball from the Panthers makes it the only play. Carolina proved once again that their passing game is reliant on an elite run game to succeed. Bryce Young can’t be trusted to go toe-to-toe with the MVP front-runner in Los Angeles, as this one could get out of hand in a hurry. If the Panthers fall behind, Stafford will slice and dice this defense with ease. Rams 35, Panthers 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) Over Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals were unlucky to get off to a slow start after losing one-possession games, but their recent losses have been much uglier. Tampa Bay got blown out in primetime last week, but they are still the far more complete team on both sides of the ball compared to Arizona. The NFC South is still up for grabs, which means some extra motivation for Tampa Bay will allow them to sneak away with a win. Buccaneers 27, Cardinals 22
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) Over Tennessee Titans
The Titans may have only lost to the Seahawks by six points last week, but they were trailing by 20 points in the final minute of the third quarter. This is still a truly terrible football team, and the Jaguars now have the AFC South crown back within reach. Trevor Lawrence has been consistent this season, and a struggling Titans defense is the perfect opportunity for another big game. Jaguars 30, Titans 17
Miami Dolphins (-5.5) Over New Orleans Saints
The Saints just lost at home to the lowly Falcons, and things can’t get much worse in New Orleans. Tanking is the priority for this squad as they are finally released from their salary cap handcuffs, while Miami actually still has playoff life late in the season. The extra rest for the Dolphins coming off their bye week is also a huge plus, and their offense has been fairly consistent at Hard Rock Stadium. Can the Saints keep up? Unlikely. Dolphins 31, Saints 14
San Francisco 49ers (-5) Over Cleveland Browns
The Browns' defense is very solid, and rookie quarterback sensation Shedeur Sanders has given this team new life. However, the 49ers are a complete team on both sides of the ball, and their defense will shine in Cleveland. It was one thing for Sanders to break down the 2-9 Raiders, but having another big game against the 8-4 49ers is a whole different story. 49ers 24, Browns 10
New York Jets (+3) Over Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were a nice pick in the underdog role last week against the Saints, but the Jets are a better team, yet Atlanta is now a favorite. Tyrod Taylor isn’t going to be turning heads, but he is still less mistake-prone compared to Kirk Cousins. The Jets also have the better defense; they are strong against the run, and the favorable point spread is just icing on the cake. This is going to be an ugly one, making the points the clear choice with the home team. Jets 19, Falcons 15
Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) Over Houston Texans
CJ Stroud is looking unlikely to play, making this spread quite soft for the Colts. Houston was a +5.5 point underdog at home last week, and they are now only +4.5 against the high-flying Colts on the road. Indianapolis was able to match the Chiefs’ efficiency last week and was unlucky not to win, making this spread hard to justify. Houston’s strong defense will only get them so far, and the Colts' towering offensive line is up to the task. Colts 31, Texans 17
Seattle Seahawks (-11.5) Over Minnesota Vikings
This is the biggest spread of the week, and rightfully so. Seattle’s offense is truly electric, and its 6-point win over the Titans last week is not an accurate reflection of how that game went down. The Seahawks will be able to completely shut down JJ McCarthy; they will pile on the points themselves, and it is hard to imagine this one staying remotely close. Even with a thick line, the Seahawks are the only viable option in this matchup. Seahawks 44, Vikings 10
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) Over Pittsburgh Steelers
Whoever loses this game will be unlikely to make the postseason. This is as big as a Week 13 game can get for these two Wild Card teams, both of which have thrown away early division leads. Buffalo has the rest advantage, they are the most consistent offense, and there are still real question marks surrounding the wrist of Aaron Rodgers. I wish the hook was on the other side of the line, but we will still lay the points with the Bills. Bills 28, Steelers 20
Las Vegas Raiders (+9.5) Over Los Angeles Chargers
Nothing about the Chargers screams double-digit blowout against a divisional rival. Las Vegas made Shedeur Sanders look like prime Tom Brady last week, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be able to disrupt Justin Herbert. The Chargers' offensive line is a complete disaster, and a strong Raiders pass rush will be able to make a difference. On offense, Chip Kelly is gone, and maybe we will see some improvements from Geno Smith as a result. Either way, the Chargers' offensive line and weak run game will prevent them from running away with this one. Chargers 24, Raiders 18
Denver Broncos (-6) Over Washington Commanders
The Commanders could be the most disappointing team of the season. A wave of injuries on both sides of the ball, including sophomore quarterback Jayden Daniels, has put the NFC finalists well outside the playoff picture. Denver is running on all cylinders right now, and it is a bit surprising to see this spread at single digits. A bye week won’t have been enough to fix Washington’s problems all over the field, and a comfortable Denver win awaits on Sunday night. Broncos 28, Commanders 9
New York Giants (+7.5) Over New England Patriots
The Giants were unlucky to lose last week, while the Patriots needed to mount a double-digit comeback to win. Drake Maye and Jameis Winston couldn’t be further apart in terms of playstyle and overall quality, but this spread is still a couple of points too wide. While the Patriots have been winning, they rarely blow teams out, and it will be another tight one in Foxborough. Patriots 27, Giants 21
Season Record: 84-95-1
Last Season Record: 142-125-5
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