Tonight’s matchup looks like a classic AFC East showdown between the Patriots and Dolphins. Both teams enter the game 2-1 and both have approached the games in their own way. The Patriots have tried to outscore teams on their way to a 2-1 start while the Dolphins held two opponents to 10 points each on the way to their 2-1 start.

But this is not your Dolphins team of the past three years. The run-first and run-second mentality has morphed into a balanced offense that ranks 18th in passing behind the emerging Chad Henne and 15th in rushing.

Their defense appeared to be vintage Miami defense until it was shredded last week by Mark Sanchez to the tune of 256 yards and three touchdowns on only 28 attempts. That is a secondary that Tom Brady is looking to feast on.

The New England aerial attack is the biggest factor in this game. Randy Moss torched the Miami secondary last season for touchdown receptions of 58 and 71 yards, but look for rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to have big games. Tight ends have feasted on the Miami secondary with Visanthe Shiancoe grabbing six passes for 86 yards and Dustin Keller of the Jets catching six passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns.

Injury Report
New England running back Fred Taylor has been ruled out of Monday’s game after a toe injury he suffered in Week 3.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Betting Odds and Line Moves
The Patriots are 1.5-point favorites and that line has remained steady. The total has climbed from 46 to 47.5 at most sportsbooks. NFL odds are courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Trends
Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
Patriots are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games in October
Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC East teams
Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog
‘Over’ is 5-0 in Patriots last five games overall
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings
Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings

Monday Night Football NFL Predications and Picks: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
First place in the AFC East is up for grabs in this Monday Night clash. The Patriots have had trouble in the past in games they should have won against Miami, but this one is looked at more as a tossup. Home underdogs are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU in Monday Night Football this season, with the Chiefs and Bears already springing upsets at home on Monday night. However, that trend ends in Miami. Take New England giving the points.