NFC East Weekly NFL Betting Picks: Week 5
by David Schwab - 10/2/2013
A quarter of the 2013 NFL regular season is already in the books and we are still waiting for a legitimate contender to emerge from the NFC East. Dallas is at the head of the pack at 2-2 after losing to San Diego last Sunday and the other three teams are a combined 2-10. I hit the nail on the head in Philadelphia’s 52-20 loss to Denver last week with a 3-unit play on the “over” for my ‘pick of the week’. That leaves me 3-1 on the year for a profit of $670.
Each week of the season I will briefly preview all the games in the NFC East and highlight my top ‘pick of the week’ with the use of Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. I will be tracking the results as the season progresses with the goal of making at least $1000 profit with my picks. All lines quoted have been provided by 5Dimes.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
Ever since the new-look Eagles lit up Washington 33-27 as four-point road underdogs in Week 1 they have been trying to recapture that form in three losses to teams from the AFC West both straight-up and against the spread. It has been a steady progression downward with last Sunday’s lopsided loss to the Broncos being the low point of the season. Head coach Chip Kelly has still done a fairly good job with his new team’s offense, but Philadelphia’s defense could actually be worse than the one that finished last season ranked 29th in the NFL in points allowed. This has helped take the total over in three of its four games.
The story in New York is even worse with a 0-4 start both SU and ATS. Nothing has gone right for the Giants this season in losses to Dallas, Denver, Carolina and Kansas City by a combined score of 146-61. This is the most points allowed in the NFL this season and to make matters worse they also have the dubious distinction of being ranked last in turnovers at minus nine. A big part of that number can be attributed to quarterback Eli Manning, who has thrown nine interceptions against just six touchdowns. He has also been sacked 14 times behind an extremely porous offensive line. New York’s lack of a running game has not helped its cause as it is ranked 30th in the league with just 57.8 yards a game.
NFC East ‘Pick of the Week’
Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
Denver has risen to the top of most people’s NFL power rankings with its 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) start in which it has outscored its opponents by a combined 88 points. This is by far the highest margin of victory in the league. The primary catalyst for this early success has been the elevated play of Peyton Manning. He is on pace to break a number of single-season passing records with 1,470 yards and 16 touchdowns in his first four games. The most impressive stat in this amazing performance is a completion rate of 75 percent. It also helps that he has the deepest receiving corps in the NFL led by the likes of Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker. The only kink in the armor on this team is a defense that is allowing an average of 22.8 points a game, but in all fairness most of those points have come when the game was already out of hand.
Dallas appears to be the best that the NFC East has to offer this season, but it has still had major trouble against the AFC West so far. After putting forth a lackluster effort in a 17-16 loss to Kansas City as three-point road underdogs in Week 2, the Cowboys blew an 11-point lead against San Diego last Sunday in a 30-21 loss as one-point favorites on the road. Overall, they are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS with the total evenly split 2-2 in the first four games. Tony Romo continues to play at a high level with 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns while completing 72.4 percent of his throws and DeMarco Murray has shown flashes of brilliance running the ball with 356 yards on 72 carries. The offense as a whole is ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring with 26 points a game, but the inability to close-out games has proven to be costly. The Cowboys’ defense is ranked 11th in points allowed, but the big negative for this matchup is a pass defense that is giving-up 304.5 yards a game. Mix this stat with Denver’s passing offense and it is like putting out fire with gasoline. Dallas has been listed as an 8.5-point home underdog and while it might be able to cover that spread, the total score is not going to stayed below 56 points.
3-Unit Play. Take Denver vs. Dallas OVER 56
YTD Record 3-1 (+670)
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