NFL Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Options for Week 4
by George Monroy - 9/24/2013
Basic strategy teasers have done very well over the first three weeks of the season and are winning at a 70 percent rate. For those that are unfamiliar, a basic strategy teaser is a two-team combination wager, similar to a standard parlay, in which the bettor is given six points to move the spread for each game. The teaser is a very specific bet in that it only deals with favorites of 7.5, 8.0, or 8.5 points and underdogs of 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 points. In theory, basic strategy teasers are a mathematically profitable play and should give bettors an edge over the sportsbooks. But of course, profit is never guaranteed in the unpredictable world of sports betting.
Week 4 of NFL football action has five teasers to choose from, so let’s jump right and go over the best options for this weekend’s slate of games.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Original Spread: Colts -8 (5Dimes)
Six-point teaser: Colts -2
The strongest teaser of the week comes to us via the Colts and Jaguars matchup. The value in this teaser is less about how good the Colts are and more about how bad the Jaguars are (very). Jacksonville has averaged only eight points a game this season and managed to score only two points against the Kansas City Chiefs. The team’s defense is bad, the offense is even worse, and the Jaguars would be lucky to win four games this year. Expect the Colts to easily cover the reduced spread of two points—heck, there is a very good change they cover the original eight.
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons
Original spread: Patriots +1.5
Six-point teaser: Patriots +7.5
The Atlanta Falcons have not played great during their first three games of the year, but the bigger analysis here is the rare chance of getting the Pats plus this many points That almost never happens; New England has not played terrific football, either, yet they are still 3-0 and will probably have enough offensive firepower to keep this game close if not win it outright. The Falcons will be desperate for a win after starting the season 1-2, but expect New England to stay in this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings
Original spread: Vikings +1.5
Six-point teaser: Vikings +7.5
This is a matchup between two bad teams (both are winless) with issues on both sides of the ball. The Vikings have played tough in all three of their losses and nearly won two of them. Over the course of the last two weeks, the team has lost by a combined five points. In general, there are two factors to think about when trying to decide between two bad football teams—the home-field advantage and the points. In this case the Vikings are at home and getting 7.5 points on the teaser. This bet feels very solid if only because the Steelers have been so bad.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Original spread: Bears +2.5
Six-point teaser: Bears +8.5
The Bears put a beating on the Steelers last week and could very well be a legitimate threat in the NFC. This matchup is a huge divisional game in the NFC North, so there is a very good chance the Lions will be desperate and view this as a must-win situation. If Chicago were to win, they would take an early two-game division lead with only 12 games left to play. Two games is not an insurmountable lead, but it would be a very nice cushion to have. The Bears are the better team in this matchup, and even if they lose, betting on them plus the points is the smart move. This game has a Lions win written all over it, but it probably won’t be by more than 8.5 points.
Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers
Original spread: Chargers +1.5
Six-point teaser: Chargers +7.5
Neither team in this matchup has been very consistent over the last few years, so this is one of those games where anything could happen. If Dallas lost by 20, no one would blink an eye, and if the Chargers lost by the same amount it would almost be expected. San Diego seems like a favorite to not lose by more than seven, but the team is so unpredictable that is the teaser to stay away from.
Last week: 5-2; Season: 12-5
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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