NFL Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Options for Week 6
by George Monroy - 10/9/2013
Basic strategy teasers had a strong showing last week, posting a 6-1 record and netting bettors a solid profit for Week 5 of NFL action. The football season continues to be as intriguing as ever with more than a third of the year already complete. Peyton Manning and the Broncos are producing at an epic offensive pace, while more than a few teams have surprisingly struggled—the New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons are the first teams that come to mind. This season there have been quite a few solid betting opportunities as the favorites are winning at a 66 percent rate and the home teams at a 63 percent rate. However, the best wager to make this season has been on basic strategy teasers. The two-team, six-point teasers have won at nearly a 76 percent rate over the first six week’s of the season.
A basic strategy teaser, for those unfamiliar with the wager, is a positive expected-value bet that takes advantage of NFL key numbers and lowers the spreads on favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 points and adds to the spreads of underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 points. This week there are five teasers to choose from, so let’s just jump right in and take a look at the best basic strategy teaser options for Week 6 of NFL action.
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Original spread: Bears -7.5
Six-point teaser: Bears -1.5
At this point in the season there is very little reason to have any faith in the Giants. Sure, they will eventually get a few wins and might even end the season 5-11 or 6-10, but that turnaround will probably not start on the road against a very good Bears team. Chicago is in the middle of a tight division race in the NFC North and cannot afford to give away games to teams that they should beat. This matchup has the best teaser value of the week, and the Bears should be able to cover the 1.5 points.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Original spread: Chiefs -8.5
Six-point teaser: Chiefs -2.5
The Chiefs have been a complete joy to watch this year. The team’s fantastic and somewhat-surprising turnaround is one of the best storylines in the NFL. Kansas City currently has a 4-1 ATS record and has been one of the safest bets in the NFL this season. The Chiefs are at home in this matchup and will probably cover the original spread of 8.5 points, so teasing it down to 2.5 points is a great wager to make. There is no reason to have much faith in Oakland—not even after the team beat the San Diego Chargers last week.
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Original spread: Saints +2.5
Six-point teaser: Saints +8.5
The Saints are still undefeated and have looked fantastic this season. Who would have thought that coach Sean Payton would have that type of impact? At this point last season the Saints were one of the worst teams in the league. The Patriots may be 4-1, but they have not exactly been burning up the league. They have had a couple of close wins, and to be honest are probably overachieving based on all of the injuries and offseason departures they have endured lately. Expect this game to be a high-scoring matchup that stays within a touchdown.
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
Original spread: Browns +2.5
Six-point teaser: Browns +8.5
The Cleveland Browns have been another one of those surprise teams this season as they have started the year win a very impressive 3-2 record. The Lions are a very good team and in the middle of a tight division race in the NFC North, but there is simply too much value to pass up on when a home team is receiving over a touchdowns worth of points. This is a matchup that the Browns will probably lose, but they should be able to keep it close the entire way.
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
Original spread: Panthers +2.5
Six-point teaser: Panthers +8.5
The Carolina Panthers have been horrendous this season, and the team’s only win came against an even worse New York Giants team. There is definitely some value wagering on the Panthers at over eight points, especially against a Vikings team that is not exactly great themselves. Carolina has lost by an average of seven points this season, which is within range of this teaser, so taking the Panthers is not horrible. But if any team were not going to cover a teaser this weekend, wouldn’t it be this game?
Last week: 6-1; Season: 22-7
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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