NFL Betting Buy or Sell: Reaction to Week 1 Surprises
by George Monroy - 9/11/2014
The first week of the NFL season ended with a few surprises-New England's loss and Jacksonville's near-upset of the Philadelphia Eagles-but also played out exactly the way most fans and experts expected it would. Seattle and San Francisco put on dominating performances and reminded everyone that the road to the Super Bowl runs through the NFC West.
Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos also looked dominant over in the AFC, putting on an offensive show during the first half of its Sunday night matchup against Indianapolis. The season may only be a week old, but let's play a game of NFL buy or sell for a few of the biggest surprises from last Sunday.
Buy or Sell : New England Patriots will struggle both SU and ATS this year
Buy : New England losing the opening game of the year was shocking for fans who expect greatness from the team. At the moment there are two trains of thought on the situation. One is that Sunday's loss was just one game against a tough division rival, while the other is that the Patriots will struggle this season because of their lack of quality skill players on both offense and defense.
The Patriots are constantly overrated by the general public, which causes the oddsmakers to release skewed lines on the team-should the Patriots really be a favorite 14 or 15 times this season? In 2013 the Patriots went 9-9 (playoffs included) against the spread and may do even worse this season. New England is simply not as talented as in years past.
Buy or Sell : Detroit Lions NFC North Division Odds
Buy : Detroit opened the year with an impressive performance against the New York Giants that may have put the team on everyone's radar as a player for the NFC North division title. Green Bay is currently the favorite at +110 but has already spotted the Lions a one-game lead. Detroit is receiving +220 odds to win the division and may be finally putting all its talent together.
The team has a tough, yet manageable, schedule and could end the year with 10 or 11 wins. Of course, Green Bay is probably on the path for the same amount of wins. However, if Detroit can stay focused on offense it should be a major player for the division title.
Buy or Sell : Denver will make another Super Bowl appearance
Sell : Denver is still the most talented squad in the AFC to go along with being the most disciplined and precise. The team, however, made a noticeable improvement on defense and seems to be more focused on running the ball and grinding down its opponents. The defending AFC champions still looked spectacular on offense but did take a slower approach during their Week 1 matchup against the Colts.
However, making back-to-back Super Bowl appearances is easier said than done. The AFC is stacked with young and talented teams-does anyone really want to face Andrew Luck in the playoffs-and taking the field against Denver to make the Super Bowl is probably a smart idea. Denver is good but may falter along the way.
Buy or Sell : Seattle Seahawks NFC West Division Odds
Sell : Seattle may be the best team in the NFL, but the trouble for the Super Bowl Champions is that the second-best team plays in its own division and will be looking for revenge. San Francisco knows that it would fare much better in the inevitable NFC Championship matchups against Seattle if the game were played in its home stadium.
Because of that the 49ers will place an extra emphasis on winning the division and sweeping its two regular season games against the Seahawks this year. Seattle is a strong favorite at -175 to win the NFC West, but a better wager may be taking San Francisco at +200. Either way, both teams are evenly-matched, and the division crown can go to either team.
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