Luck is a huge part of office pool success. The sooner you can accept that, the less likely you are to drive yourself insane. Last week was not a great week for my picks - 10-5 is fine but far from exceptional. Three crazy games all went our way, though, to at least salvage respectability from what could have been a horrifying week. Washington won with a field goal at the final whistle. Buffalo scored a touchdown with one second left to win. Denver scored two touchdowns in less than two minutes late in the fourth quarter to beat the struggling Niners. Three games won by a total of four points - and all in my favor. Luck. Let's combine some more of that luck with a bit of skill to win big in our NFL office pools this week:

San Diego at Denver: The Chargers are 5-2, and their losses - at Arizona by one, and by a field goal to the Chiefs - are respectable. They are a good team, and I would pick them in most spots. Against the Broncos in Denver when Peyton Manning is playing with such confidence, though, I can't do it. Take the Broncos.

Detroit at Atlanta: I wouldn't take the Falcons if they were playing an intra-squad scrimmage. This team is a total mess, and they are up against a truly impressive defense that will give them fits. Detroit is far from perfect, but their comeback last week should have boosted their offensive confidence. Take the Lions.

St. Louis at Kansas City: Huge win by the Rams last week, but that has as much to do with Seattle's woes as anything. Kansas City had a big win of their own, and they are playing at home in front of a very friendly crowd. They are also the better team here - by a solid margin. Take the Chiefs.

Houston at Tennessee: I don't have much respect for either team right now, so this is a tough game to pick. Neither one has a lot to be proud of about how their games ended last week. I'll take the Texans, but only because I have to take someone - and I like the team they lost to last week better than the one the Titans fell to.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay has been terrible this year. Both teams have, really. The Bucs are coming off a bye week, though, so hopefully that has given them the chance to iron out a few issues and come out strong at home against a very beatable team. Take the Bucs.

Seattle at Carolina: The Seahawks have been a hot mess lately. They are on the road here, too. There are a lot of reasons not to like them. The Panthers are a lousy team right now, though, so I am willing to count on the pride of the defending champs to kick in and get them back on track before it is too late. Take the Seahawks.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: After starting 3-0, the Bengals have been blown out twice and tied a really bad Carolina team. The magic of Marvin Lewis is on full display yet again. The Ravens are dealing with injuries, but they are coming of a strong effort and have to be the pick here. Take Baltimore.

Miami at Jacksonville: As a huge Michigan fan it pleases me that all the Jaguars had to do to get a win was finally give Denard Robinson his first start at QB. The guy is magic. He's not enough to male me back the Jags here, though. Miami is playing solid football, and you just have to take the better team. Take the Dolphins .

Chicago at New England: The stories of the strife in Chicago's locker room after their latest loss are likely blown out of proportion. Their poor play on the field is the real concern here, though. The Patriots are playing reasonably sound football lately, and they get the nod here at home. Take New England.

Buffalo at New York Jets: The Jets were better than they should have been last week, but I still have absolutely no faith in them. Buffalo showed how tough they can be last week, but down their two best running backs - and offensive playmakers - makes them hard to love on the road. I hate to do it, but I have to take the Jets .

Philadelphia at Arizona: This is the game of the week. Arizona is tough and feisty. Philadelphia has been dangerous but flawed, so their bye week came at a good time to work out some kinks. I'd take the home team in this one wherever this was played. That means I'll take the Cardinals.

Oakland at Cleveland: Cleveland is coming off a very rough game. Brian Hoyer couldn't complete a pass, and they did little right. Fortunately for them, though, they have two things going for them here - they are at home, and they are playing the lousy Raiders. That makes the Browns the choice.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: This one's easy. The Colts are playing like a very good team - which they are. The Steelers are playing like a very average team - which they are. Very good trumps average every time. Take the Colts.

Green Bay at New Orleans: This one is even easier than the last one. The Saints are better at home than on the road, but they are still a generally lousy team. The confidence of the Packers, meanwhile, is growing with every strong outing. This could get ugly. Take the Packers.

Washington at Dallas: Colt McCoy. That's the best Washington has to offer right now. Against a very confident team. Do I have to say anything more? Take the Cowboys.

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