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2017 New Orleans Saints Season Win Total Picks


by - 8/14/2017

Drew Brees New Orleans Saints

2016 Record: 7-9

2017 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 8.0

2017 Season Win Total Pick: 'Under'

Sean Payton is moving dangerously close to Jeff Fisher territory.

Payton, owner of a 94-66 career record and a Super Bowl title, has now led the Saints to a 7-9 record in three straight seasons, and, if you include the 2012 season in which Payton was banned, New Orleans has suffered a losing mark in four of the last five years.

There are a multitude of reasons for New Orleans' flailing over the past several years: the salary cap hell they put themselves in earlier in the decade, their ill-fated hiring of Rob Ryan and the shift to the 3-4 defense, the rise of Matt Ryan and Cam Newton in the division, etc. But the main reason that the Saints have stunk and generally been a non-factor for the past three seasons is pretty simple: over a three-year period the Saints have fielded one of the worst defenses in NFL history.

New Orleans has finished last or second-to-last in either scoring or total defense each of the past three years, including 2014's historically bad unit. They've allowed an average of more than 28 points per game for three straight years, and last year's stop unit - ranked No. 31 in points allowed and No. 27 in total defense - was actually a marked improvement over the two prior.

Shockingly, this year's defense doesn't look like it is going to be much better. New Orleans has endured a horrid run of draft decisions over the past six years. And their constant attempts to plug third-tier free agents into spots on that side of the ball haven't worked out either. The result is a group with no clear strength and no true identity. And rather than focus resources on this obvious weakness this offseason, the Saints decided to go out and get Adrian Peterson, despite the fact that they already have a Pro Bowl running back in Mark Ingram.

The defensive follies have served to waste the final few years of Drew Brees' prime. Brees, despite a rotating cast of skill players and a below-average offensive line, has led the Saints to an offense ranked in the Top 6 in the NFL each of the past 11 years. Six times during that stretch, including last year, the Saints have boasted the No. 1 total offense in football.

But it won't matter at the betting window if the Saints can't stop anyone. And they can't. New Orleans lost seven games by six points or less last year, including two heartbreaking last-second home losses to Oakland and Denver thanks to two-point conversions. The Saints simply could not get key stops on last-second drives, and their games have repeatedly devolved into simple whoever-has-the-ball-last-wins affairs.

Statistically, there are reasons to think New Orleans could sneak back over .500. The record in close games, the Saints' defensive yards per point, and the fact that they outgained their opponents by over 50 yards per game (third in the NFL behind New England and Arizona) all suggest a bounce-back season. However, I don't see anything about the composition of this team that suggests that they will be any different than the streaky, shootout-prone group that's struggled to get to eight wins any of the last three years. Play 'under'.

Saints Regular Season Schedule (All times Eastern)

Week

Date

Kickoff

Opponent

1

11-Sep

6:10 p.m. CDT

at Minnesota Vikings

2

17-Sep

12:00 p.m. CDT

New England Patriots

3

24-Sep

12:00 p.m. CDT

at Carolina Panthers

4

1-Oct

8:30 a.m. CDT

at Miami Dolphins

5

8-Oct


Bye

6

15-Oct

12:00 p.m. CDT

Detroit Lions

7

22-Oct

12:00 p.m. CDT

at Green Bay Packers

8

29-Oct

12:00 p.m. CDT

Chicago Bears

9

5-Nov

12:00 p.m. CST

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

10

12-Nov

12:00 p.m. CST

at Buffalo Bills

11

19-Nov

12:00 p.m. CST

Washington Redskins

12

26-Nov

3:05 p.m. CST

at Los Angeles Rams

13

3-Dec

12:00 p.m. CST

Carolina Panthers

14

7-Dec

7:25 p.m. CST

at Atlanta Falcons

15

17-Dec

12:00 p.m. CST

New York Jets

16

24-Dec

12:00 p.m. CST

Atlanta Falcons

17

31-Dec

12:00 p.m. CST

at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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