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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks


by - 10/9/2017

Kansas City Chiefs running back Charcandrick West

It turns out we were all correct: the worst team in the NFL this season is a New York club that plays its home games at MetLife Stadium. What, you thought I meant the Jets? They are 3-2 (most books closed the Jets with a season total of 4.5 wins and I would have gone under that) and might even be saving the job of embattled coach Todd Bowles.

The 0-5 Giants, meanwhile, already have reached their regular-season loss total of 2016 after falling to the previously winless Chargers (in a 10 a.m. Pacific time start, no less), 27-22 in Week 6. To make matters worse, New York saw four receivers go down injured: Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Harris. The first three injured their ankles, while Harris suffered a fractured foot and is done for the season. He isn't used much as a receiver but is a solid return man.

The big news is Beckham's fractured ankle that likely ends his season and has ruined fantasy football teams everywhere. Beckham was injured with about four minutes left in the game after landing awkwardly while coming down following a leaping attempt to catch an Eli Manning pass (it was incomplete). You knew right away it was bad, and it's the same ankle that Beckham badly sprained this preseason, which cost him Week 1.

That injury ends New York's season for all intents and purposes, not that it was going anywhere at 0-5. OBJ is by far the team's most important offensive player and was off to a historic start to his career with at least 90 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 TDs in each of his first three seasons. In addition, Shepard is expected to miss at least a couple of weeks, while Marshall's injury status isn't clear yet, but he had to be carted off. Frankly, Marshall has been a major bust. So, New York will have to promote some guys from the practice squad or sign some off the waiver wire as the only receiver on the roster is Roger Lewis Jr. New York is a double-digit underdog this week in Denver and probably enters its bye at 0-7 after hosting Seattle in Week 7. Perhaps that could be when Coach Ben McAdoo is fired. It might not be the worst thing for Big Blue to go something like 2-14 as it could land Manning's eventual replacement high in the 2018 draft and find an offensive guru to replace McAdoo.

Here are some Week 6 early lines that caught my eye. I won't touch on Thursday's game (Eagles-Panthers), my in-depth Sunday matchup (likely Browns-Texans, where I will address J.J. Watt's injury) or the Monday night game (Colts-Titans) as I will be previewing them here individually.

Dolphins at Falcons (-10.5, 47): How big of a distraction will the whole Chris Foerster mess be with the Dolphins? He's the team's offensive line coach and one of the highest-paid assistants in the NFL but resigned on Monday morning after a video appeared Sunday on social media of him snorting cocaine while speaking lovingly to some stripper … err model ... he apparently was banging (yep, he's married). She was the one who posted the video, including writing: "Welcome to my NFL Sunday event. … A coach going skiing before practice." How stupid can people be? Why would this guy film himself doing this? Now he has lost a gig paying between $2.5 million-$3 million a year and surely is going to get destroyed in any divorce. The Fins have enough to worry about offensively with Jay Cutler. He was atrocious Sunday, completing 12 of 26 for 92 yards with a pick and TD against the Titans. Yet Miami won 16-10 because the Dolphins defense got to face Matt Cassel instead of Marcus Mariota. The Fins lost WR DeVante Parker to a sprained ankle so he's in questions here. Atlanta comes off its bye. The Pick: Miami should be able to stay within 10.

Steelers at Chiefs (-4, 45.5): A rematch of last season's Divisional Round playoff game, won 18-16 by Pittsburgh in Kansas City despite the Steelers not reaching the end zone. Chris Boswell set a playoff record with six field goals, and the Pittsburgh defense held the Chiefs to 227 yards. But that Kansas City offense is vastly better now with the addition of RB Kareem Hunt and QB Alex Smith playing the best football of his career and an MVP candidate. Hunt has joined Adrian Peterson as the only rookies in NFL history to reach 100 yards from scrimmage in five straight games to start a season. Will Smith have his security blanket in Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce? He was forced out of Sunday night's win in Houston with a concussion. The Chiefs also lost WR Chris Conley to a ruptured Achilles' tendon, so his season is over. Is Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger done? He hinted he might be as an elite QB after throwing five interceptions, two returned for touchdowns, in Sunday's shocking home blowout loss to Jacksonville. "Maybe I don't have it anymore," Big Ben said afterward. When you hear a QB talk like that, well, it's not good. But it's not as if the Steelers have any in-house options. Maybe they should call Colin Kaepernick. Like the Giants, Pittsburgh needs to address its long-term QB situation after this season. The Pick: Kansas City.

Rams at Jaguars (-2.5, 43.5): This game wasn't on any Top-10 list of must-see TV before the season but is suddenly quite interesting between division leaders as the Rams (3-2) are tied atop the NFC West with Seattle, and Jacksonville (3-2) is solo first in the AFC South. The Rams entered Week 5 as the NFL's highest-scoring team but were brought back to earth in a 16-10 home loss to Seattle. Jared Goff had been perhaps the NFL's most improved player so far but looked more like his 2016 version in the loss, completing just 22 of 47 and throwing two picks. The Rams turned it over five times overall, but then Seattle's defense will do that to teams. All three of Jacksonville's wins have come away from home and all in blowout fashion: Week 1 in Houston, Week 3 in London vs. Baltimore and then Sunday's 30-9 stunner in Pittsburgh. Blake Bortles attempted just 14 passes and threw for 95 yards, but the Jags didn't need him because they rushed for 231 yards and two scores on 37 carries. Don't go forgetting Leonard Fournette in the Rookie of the Year race as he had 181 yards and two TDs, including a 90-yard run. Fournette is the fifth rookie to score at least one touchdown in each of his team's first five games of a season. The Pick: Jackson ville.

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