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NFL Betting Odds: Week 12 Line Movements & Last-Minute News


by - 11/23/2018

Andrew Luck Indianapolis Colts

The NFL is enjoying a bit of a renaissance this season in terms of ratings because it has been the most offensive year of all-time. Some of that is thanks to burgeoning young star quarterbacks like the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes and Rams' Jared Goff.

However, let's not forget about how much fun and talented the Colts' Andrew Luck is. The league just wasn't the same the past two years with Luck either out or playing through injury. He's clearly all the way back now, and I hope you bet the +450 on Luck to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year back in late August at 5Dimes. I haven't seen any updated odds for a while, but I imagine they are coming - and Luck will be the heavy favorite.

The Colts are in the thick of the AFC South and wild-card race thanks to winning four straight following a 1-5 start. Luck has thrown at least three touchdown passes in seven straight games and was named AFC Player of the Week on Monday. The NFL record for consecutive games with at least three TD passes 10 straight by Tom Brady in 2007 for that record-setting Patriots offense.

At Bovada , Luck is given an "over/under" of 2.5 TD passes this week against the visiting Miami Dolphins, who come off their bye. The under is a slight -125 favorite. That Luck throws at least three TD passes this week and next in Jacksonville is +250 with no at -400. Not sure why the site isn't going into Week 14 where Luck could tie the record in Houston.

There are multiple reasons why Luck is having such a great year, but the biggest one is a vastly improved offensive line. The Colts rank second in the NFL with only 10 sacks allowed and have not given up one in five consecutive games. By comparison, Luck went down 41 times in 2016 (he missed all of last year following shoulder surgery). No lineman will ever win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, but Colts guard Quenton Nelson should at least get some votes as he has been fantastic.

On Sunday against Miami, Indianapolis can become the fourth team to allow zero sacks in six consecutive games within a single season since 1963 when team sacks became an official statistic. Bovada has Luck getting sacked at -280 and not at +185. The Fins have just 17 sacks on the season.

Miami is right in the wild-card hunt at 5-5 and will get back starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill this week from a very mysterious shoulder injury. He last played Week 5 in a 27-17 loss in Cincinnati. The Dolphins went 2-3 without him; these final six games, if Tannehill stays healthy, are probably his last chance to prove to Miami that he's the franchise quarterback or if the team needs to select one early in the 2019 draft or add a free agent (Miami native Teddy Bridgewater?). Not much movement on the Dolphins-Colts line as Indy is -7.5 with a total of 51.

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 12.

49ers at Bucs (-3, 54): Not much movement here, but to no surprise embattled Bucs coach Dirk Koetter has announced that Jameis Winston will return to the starting QB role. He relieved interception-happy Ryan Fitzpatrick in last week's loss at the Giants and was 12-for-16 for 199 yards with two TDs and a pick. Hey, it was the first game this year Winston didn't throw at least two interceptions! Winston is in somewhat the same boat as Tannehill: The last six games are essentially a tryout for 2019 and will help the Bucs decide their offseason QB plans. It's probably also a referendum on Koetter's job status, although most believe he's gone. Tampa has lost a major weapon for the season in tight end OJ Howard, who was placed on IR. He finishes with 34 catches, 565 yards and five TDs, the latter tied with Mike Evans for the team lead.

Seahawks at Panthers (-3.5, 46.5): Important game in the NFC wild-card race because neither has a chance to win its division - in fact, the Rams (on the bye) would clinch the NFC West with a Seattle loss. The Seahawks (5-5) currently sit seventh in the NFC but only a half-game behind No. 6 Minnesota. Those teams play in the Pacific Northwest on Monday in Week 14. Just a matter of time before the Saints clinch the NFC South, so it's wild card or bust for Carolina, which was fifth in the NFC entering Week 12. The Panthers would win tiebreakers over Dallas and Philadelphia but lose one to Washington. Both No. 1 receivers are in question for this one in Seattle's Doug Baldwin (groin) and Carolina's Devin Funchess (back) are iffy. Funchess is a No. 1 in name only as he's really behind RB Christian McCaffrey and TE Greg Olsen.

Patriots at Jets (+10, 47.5): If you were planning on backing the Jets, here's hoping you didn't bet them early in the week when they were as low as +8.5 because they seem likely to climb over 10 by kickoff with the huge lean the Patriots are getting. Both come off their bye weeks, which you would think means good health. Rob Gronkowski has been limited this week in practice but should play. Ditto Sony Michel. Looking like Jets rookie QB Sam Darnold will miss a second straight game with a foot injury. Top WR Robby Anderson also is likely out with an ankle. If it's Brady vs. Josh McCown, they will combine for the second-oldest starting QB duo in NFL history. Brady and Darnold would have represented the largest age gap between starters ever. I love the Jets here above 10 because they have been pretty solid at home and the Patriots very shaky on the road.

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