NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 6: Expert Pick'em Predictions No Point Spread
It should come as no surprise to you that Confidence Pools have grown in popularity over the last number of years. The concept of just picking a team to win straight up is much more appealing to the average bettor who is still understanding how the point spread part of the equation works. There have been many instances where we wished we had taken a team straight up instead of on the spread, only to have them not cover by half a point. It's frustrating, but with a Confidence Pool, you won't ever have to worry about that. For the entire season, I'll be breaking down the game list and ranking each game from most confident to least confident.
Week 6 Confidence List (my selection listed first)
New England vs New York Giants: Do we really believe that a Giants team without their franchise running back and essentially any decent wide receivers will waltz into Foxboro with a rookie quarterback and beat the Patriots? If you believe that, then I have some oceanfront property to sell you in Kansas. Patriots win this game by double digits.
Dallas at New York Jets: At 3-0, the Cowboys' fan base was planning the parade route. Two weeks and two losses later, the roof is caving in. Look, the Cowboys laid an egg at home to a GB team that had an extra three days to prepare. They were dominated, and that's the end of the story. Now they get to rebound against a brutal Jets team who will be getting Sam Darnold back but still have serious question marks surrounding the rest of the roster. Dallas wins going away and all is right in Jerry's world again.
Baltimore vs Cincinnati - If it weren't for the Redskins and Dolphins, we'd probably be talking about the Bengals as one of the worst franchises in pro sports today. They are perennial losers and will once again be without the services of their top wideout, A.J. Green. Andy Dalton on the road is not a Week 6 bet I would ever want to make. Baltimore is coming off a tough win against Pittsburgh, but they should win this game easily over the hapless Bengals.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh: The Steelers are likely starting Devlin Hodges at quarterback and that alone is enough to warrant a straight-up bet on the Chargers. The Chargers should be pissed off after losing at home to the Broncos, so this game has bounce-back potential written all over it. I recommend finding something else to do on Sunday night as opposed to watching this Week 6 Steelers vs. Chargers game , but that doesn't mean you can't cash a ticket with the Chargers.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: At what point are people going to start taking Kyle Allen seriously? I believe that happens after this week when he and the Carolina Panthers go on the road to Tampa and win outright and exact a little revenge for their Week 2 loss. Allen has shown us flashes of brilliance, and Christian McCaffery has shown us why he should be in the MVP conversation. The Bucs have a terrible defense and will likely be forced to play catch up all game - something that does not bode well for the decision making of Jameis Winston. Carolina wins a close one.
Seattle at Cleveland: Seattle is coming off an exciting Thursday night win against the Rams and now have to travel across the country to face a Cleveland team that is coming off an embarrassing Monday night performance against San Francisco. Normally, we like to bet against West Coast teams coming East for early games, but Cleveland is off a short week and is also traveling West to East (home), so we'll take the better franchise and the more complete team. Give me the Seahawks.
Green Bay vs Detroit: I've said it from the beginning of the season; the Packers having a legitimate defense is going to cause problems for the rest of the league. The Pack not only went into Big D and came out with a win, but they did so by dominating the game and did so without their top receiver. Now they get to take on a Detroit team who is off a bye but still doesn't measure up to the quality of the Packers. Since this game is being played at Lambeau, that gives the Packers an added edge, and I'll gladly side with Aaron Rodgers over Matthew Stafford any day of the week.
Denver vs Tennessee: I told you last week; the Titans are an enigma. One week the offense looks great, the next it looks brutal. They come into this game after putting up just 7 points against Buffalo and now have to go to Mile High to play a Broncos team coming off a great win. I'm siding with the Broncos to make it two wins in a row thanks to their defense and consistency.
Minnesota vs Philadelphia: Both of these teams did what needed to be done last week, and that was win easily against either New York team. For the Eagles, the defense showed up in a big way while the offense was the catalyst for the Vikings. This is one of those games where Kirk Cousins needs to prove to the world that he can beat a team with a winning record. And at home against a Philadelphia team that still has issues catching the football, we believe he can eke out a close win. It also helps that Minnesota has the better defense of the two teams.
San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams: In one corner, we have a team coming off a prime-time home win, and in the other we have a team coming off a prime-time road loss. The Niners are on a short week, but they just seem to have "it". The Rams are not the Rams of last year as both the offense and defense look out of sync of sorts. This is probably a no bet for me, but I'll take the Niners in a close one if I had to choose.
New Orleans at Jacksonville: Both of these teams are playing backup quarterbacks out of necessity, and both are coming away with half-decent results. The Saints are 2-0 with Bridgewater as their starter, while the Jags are 2-2. This game is going to come down to these three things: which quarterback can limit his mistakes, which supporting cast can win at the point of attack, and which defense can rise to the occasion. It sounds like a winning formula for every game, but the Saints check two of three boxes for me, so we'll go with them in a close one on the road.
Kansas City at Houston: Everything that could go wrong for the Chiefs went wrong on Sunday night, while everything that could have gone right did just that for the Texans on Sunday. So, where does that leave us? Well, the Chiefs are favored by five points but have a seemingly hobbled Patrick Mahomes to contend with. They were also exposed in the run game as the defensive line had no answers for the Colts rushing attack. Expect a lot of points in this game, but we have no clue who wins. KC is the obvious choice, but Houston is absolutely a live dog.
Arizona vs Atlanta - I continuously have to remind myself not to bet on the Atlanta Falcons, and it finally paid dividends as we were all over the Texans. Now the Falcons have to travel across the country to deal with a fat and happy Arizona team who got their first win of the season on the road vs the Bengals. Arizona may be in a flat spot. And is what we saw out of the Falcons offense a sign of things to come? They finally scored points but couldn't keep Houston out of the endzone. I'll be siding with Arizona in this one, but Atlanta does scare me as a live dog.
Miami vs Washington - Imagine betting on this game? Actually, imagine having to sit for three hours and watch this game? Not sure which one is worse. Let's roll with the terrible Dolphins at home versus the terrible Redskins, who don't have a coach and have no clue who they want to start at quarterback. At some point the Dolphins offense will manage to score more than 11 points.
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