Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 17 NFL Betting Options
There is a saying amongst those in the handicapping industry that parlays and teasers for suckers. If I’m being honest, I would partially agree with that statement. However, the part I disagree with is when it comes to teasers. Teasers in football work like a charm if you know which spreads to look for and utilize great patience and bankroll management. Through 16 weeks of National Football League action, I’ve given you 14 teasers (two weeks there were no lines that fit our Basic Strategy Teasers parameters). And if we go based off a $120 wager to win $100, you would be up $520 heading into Week 17. That means, that no matter what happens the last two weeks, you would be turning a profit if you followed along. Obviously, I want to finish the year strong and add another $200 to the profit, but it just goes to show you that if you put in the work, stay patient and follow the formula, teasers are an effective way to bet on pro football.
As far as last week’s results go, we easily cashed our ticket as Buffalo won outright as an adjusted +8.5 underdog against the Patriots, and the Broncos stayed within the adjusted +7.5 spread against the Raiders. We also gave you the Jaguars as an alternative option, which would have cashed at +7.5, but the Ravens – which I said was my least favorite play – got blown out. Let’s have continued success this week.
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Best Six-Point Teaser for Week 17.
New Orleans Saints -1.5 + Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-120)
Risk: $120 to win $100
Let’s take a second to explain these spreads to those of you who are new around here. The New Orleans Saints are 7.5-point favorites (depending on which book you use) against the Carolina Panthers. By using a six-point teaser, you will bring that spread down through the key numbers of seven, four and three, and get them as a 1.5-point favorites, which essentially means they just have to win the game by a field goal. The same concept applies for the Seattle Seahawks. They are currently 7.5-point favorites (depending on the book) against the Detroit Lions, and teasing them down using our six-point teaser method will take you through the key numbers of seven, four and three, and they would then be a 1.5-point favorite.
This may be one of the smelliest teasers we’ve put out this season. Howeverm as the saying goes, we bet numbers and not teams. The Saints were obliterated on Monday night against the Dolphins, but did you really expect anything different with a fourth-string QB under center for them? I tip my hat to Ian Book for being thrown into the fire with a week of notice, but the team around him didn’t really play well or give him a chance to succeed. This week, the Saints will likely have Taysom Hill back under center. And with the uncertainty surrounding who will or won’t play for the Panthers (especially at quarterback), the Saints are going to be a prime candidate for a bounce back. Remember, the Saints still have a really good defense. It’s the same one that kept the mighty Tampa Bay Buccaneers off the scoreboard just two weeks ago. The Saints should have no issues limiting a Panthers offense that ranks No. 25 or worse in all major offensive categories except for rushing yards. The Saints are typically hard to beat at home. And by teasing this game down to the -1.5 spread, the Saints just need to win this game by any means necessary.
As per the second leg of this two-team, six-point teaser, the Seattle Seahawks are a team we’ve generally faded all season long. Now, for some reason, we have to trust them in this spot because the numbers tell us that we need to. I’m okay with that because of who they are playing. The Lions may or may not be without Jared Goff under center this week as he’s battling the COVID protocols issue. If he’s out, that means Tim Boyle gets the start, and he didn’t instill much confidence with his 187-passing yard, one touchdown performance last week. The Seahawks have been a very big disappointment in their own right this season, but they still have a healthy Russell Wilson under center and Tyler Locket and DK Metcalf to throw the ball to. The Seahawks are coming off a bad loss last week to the Bears. And with this being their final home game of the season, I expect them to put up a good performance for their fans and come away with a win.
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