NFL Office Pool Picks Week 11 with Expert Analysis and ATS Predictions
Week 10 had some notable casualties, including the Philadelphia Eagles falling from their undefeated throne and Cooper Kupp picking up a concerning injury. Favorites went 6-8 outright and 5-9 against the spread. The halfway point of the NFL season has passed, and the crunch time of the season has hit its stride. The Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks, and Buccaneers will each be on their bye week. Here is an early look at the weekly slate and what to expect from each matchup.
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Thursday Night: Tennessee Titans (+3) over Green Bay Packers
The 6-3 Titans will travel to Green Bay to face the 4-6 Packers, with both teams coming off a victory. It was a necessary win for the Packers, who were on a five-game losing skid prior to the narrow win over the Cowboys, but tensions still appear high within the organization. They will face a tougher task against the Titans, who have won six of their last seven games. Tennessee is averaging 18.4 points per game and is throwing for 148.2 yards while rushing for 133.4 yards on the ground. Derrick Henry will test the Packers defense, which ranks 26th in rush yards allowed and 16th in rushing touchdowns. Expect the Titans to put pressure on Rodgers to neutralize the Packers attack and for Henry’s rushing attack to be too much for Green Bay to handle. Titans 23, Packers 14.
Chicago Bears (+3) over Atlanta Falcons
The 3-7 Bears will travel to Atlanta to face off with the 4-6 Falcons, with both teams showing signs of life of late. While Chicago has not won a game since October 24th, the offense has shown some massive signs of improvement and have averaged 30.3 points per game in its last three outings. Justin Fields has looked impressive with both his arms and legs and will be facing off against an opposing defense that allows 3.9 yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks. The Bears are 11-4 straight up in their last 15 matchups with the Falcons. Atlanta is also 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 home games. Take the Bears to pull off the upset win on the road and pick up a long overdue victory by a score of 31-17.
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) over Cleveland Browns
For the first time this season, the Buffalo Bills are facing some turmoil. They lost a heartbreaker against the Vikings in what will likely go down as the best game of the NFL season. Buffalo is now 6-3 on the season and has lost back-to-back matchups for the first time this season. The team has not looked like themselves but have a chance to right the ship against a 3-6 Browns. Cleveland is a bottom-10 team against both the run and pass and are giving up 349.1 yards per game. Cleveland is 1-7 straight up in their last eight road games, while Buffalo is 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six matchups against the Browns. While the points may scare some bettors off, count on the Bills to get out of their funk and secure a win by at least two touchdowns or more.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) over Indianapolis Colts
The Philadelphia Eagles are no longer undefeated as they fell at the hands of the Washington Commanders by a score of 32-21. This was a somewhat deceiving score as the Eagles were within striking distance for the entirety of the game and a touchdown on the final play blew the score open. Washington did an excellent job game planning and dominated the time of possession by over 20 minutes and forced four turnovers. On the other hand, the Colts picked up a victory over the Raiders in Jeff Saturday’s debut as head coach. They will face a tougher task against an Eagles team which is more talented at just about every position. While Jonathan Taylor will provide a challenge against a struggling Eagles run defense, expect the Eagles to overcome this and get back in the win column. Philadelphia 37, Indianapolis 20
New England Patriots (-3) over New York Jets
The 5-4 Patriots will host the divisional rival Jets, who have an impressive 6-3 record on the season. The Jets will be coming off a bye week with an impressive victory over the Bills still in their memory from the previous week. The Patriots will also be coming off their bye week and most recently beat the Colts by a convincing 26-3 margin. These two teams faced off on October 30, with New England pulling out the 22-17 win. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have a .736 win percentage coming off the bye week. This is expected to be a low-scoring game with the over/under sitting at 39.5, as both teams have strong defenses. This would be a massive win for the Patriots as they look to make their playoff push, and expect them to get it done in front of the home crowd. New England 17, Jets 10.
New Orleans Saints (-4) over Los Angeles Rams
Matt Stafford was a game-time decision leading up to last week’s matchup with the Cardinals but was unable to suit up. The Rams struggled in his absence, generating just 256 total yards of offense. They also will be without Cooper Kupp due to the ugly high ankle sprain he sustained last week. The Saints have not looked much better and come into the matchup with a 3-7 record and fresh off an upset loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Rams are 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 matchups, while the Saints are 4-2 against the spread in their last six matchups as the favorite. Los Angeles has struggled throughout the season and simply doesn’t look to be in the Super Bowl mix this season. Don’t expect this to be a pretty victory as both teams have underperformed but count on the Saints to pick up a victory by a touchdown or more.
New York Giants (-3) over Detroit Lions
The 3-6 Lions will travel to New York to face off with the 7-2 Giants, who continue to find ways to win. They have a terrific chance to continue to add to their impressive total against a Detroit team that ranks dead last in first downs, points, and yards allowed. They will have an especially difficult time matching up with Saquon Barkley, who is coming off a 35 carry and 152-yard performance. Detroit has shown some signs of life offensively, but the Giants have executed well in recent weeks. Take New York to pick up another win by a score of 31-20.
Baltimore Ravens (-12) over Carolina Panthers
The 6-3 Ravens have quietly had an extremely successful season thus far. They will have a chance to continue this in a home matchup against the 3-7 Panthers, who are coming off a Thursday Night victory over the Falcons. Baltimore will be coming off their bye week and rank 4th in the NFL by producing 26.1 points per game. Baker Mayfield will be stepping back into the starting lineup for Carolina which they hope will provide a spark to the team. The Panthers currently rank last in the NFL in first downs, 30th in yards, and 23rd in points scored. Defensively the Panthers are also ranking 24th in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed. Expect the team to compete and for it to remain somewhat within reach but for the Ravens to ultimately blow the game open. Baltimore 38, Carolina 20.
Washington Commanders (+3) over Houston Texans
Don’t look now, but the Commanders are playing some effective football. Taylor Heinicke has injected some life into the franchise and has tallied 840 yards and five touchdowns over his last four starts. Washington is 3-1 during these starts, with their most recent win coming over the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night. They will face off against a less talented Texans team that has a record of 1-7-1 on the season. They rank 20th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed on the season while coming in dead last in rushing yards and attempts. Count on the Heinicke magic to continue and for the Commanders to move above .500 with a record of 6-5 to solidify the NFC East as the most competitive division in the NFL. Washington 27, Houston 20.
Denver Broncos (-2.5) over Las Vegas Raiders
This pair of underperforming AFC West foes are set to face off with much less to play for than was expected to be the case at the start of the season. They most recently faced off on October 2, with the Raiders coming out with a 32-23 win. Denver has picked up two victories since this time and holds a record of 3-6 on the year. The Raiders remain just 2-7 and have lost their previous three games, including a frustrating 25-20 loss to the Colts last week. The Las Vegas defense has struggled greatly, ranking 28th in points and yards allowed while being dead last in turnovers forced. Don’t expect this to be a pretty win, but count on Russell Wilson and the Broncos to do enough to come out on top. Broncos 23, Raiders 14.
Minnesota Vikings (+1) over Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys enter this matchup with a 6-3 record and coming off a frustrating loss at the hands of the Green Bay Packers. Dallas blew a 14-point lead in the matchup with penalty flags littering the field throughout. The Vikings remain riding high at 8-1 following an improbable overtime win over the Bills. Vegas appears to be anticipating that Minnesota is due for an upset next, but they have answered all questions about being the real deal thus far. Dallas ranks 29th in the NFL in rushing defense and has especially struggled of late. They will be put to the test against Dalvin Cook, which is a matchup Minnesota will have the edge in. Look for the Vikings to lean on this and to move to 9-1 by taking down the Cowboys 24-17.
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
The 3-6 Steelers will be riding high following their 20-10 upset victory over the Saints. They will face off with the 5-4 Bengals, who are coming off their bye week. Cincinnati has woken up after their slow start and rank 6th in the NFL in points and 8th in yards. Their defense has also been solid allowing the second-fewest pass touchdowns and ranking 10th in overall yards allowed. While Pittsburgh will be feeling confident after last week’s win, the Bengals are a much more impressive team than the struggling Saints. Expect Cincinnati to take control and cruise to a 28-13 victory.
Sunday Night: Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
The 7-2 Chiefs will travel to Los Angeles to face off with the 5-4 Chargers with the playoffs still in sight for both teams. These two teams squared off in Week 2, with the Chiefs coming out on top by a score of 27-24. Kansas City has returned to their offensive dominance and is leading the league in points, first downs, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. This is not a great matchup for the Chargers, who rank 29th in points allowed. The Los Angeles defense has not clicked in the way it was hoped, and this will likely be the biggest battle in the game. Kansas City looks to be the better team, but the Chargers will be hungry for a victory in this one. Take the Chargers to cover but not necessarily to come out on top. Chiefs 31, Chargers 27.
Monday Night: San Francisco 49ers (-8) over Arizona Cardinals
This unique Monday Night matchup will take place in Mexico City. The 5-4 49ers will be coming off a win over the Chargers and looking to continue making a push to elevate themselves into the true contending category. Christian McCaffrey continues to get comfortable within the offense, and the defense remains dominant. On the other hand, the Cardinals are 4-6 on the year and most recently took down the Rams despite neither team having their starting quarterback. Murray’s status will be one to watch as the game gets closer, but expect Arizona to struggle against this 49ers team regardless. The Cardinals’ defense has been impressive, ranking first in yards and first downs allowed and fourth in scoring, so keeping it low scoring will be the team’s best chance. With or without Murray, expect the 49ers to be looking to make another primetime statement and come out with the victory in this matchup. 49ers 24, Cardinals 14.
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