NFL Office Pool Picks Week 12 with Expert Analysis and ATS Predictions

The biggest football holiday of the year is here to coincide with Week 12 of the NFL season. The Thanksgiving slate is packed with three games to kick off this week in which no teams will be on their bye week. Many teams have a lot to play for as the playoff picture is beginning to fully be painted. In Week 11, favorites went 10-4 straight up but just 5-8-1 against the spread. With the crunch time of the season on the horizon, here are the early predictions for the Week 12 NFL slate.

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Thursday (12:30): Buffalo Bills (-9) over Detroit Lions

The Lions are riding a three-game win streak and will be set for their annual Thanksgiving matchup. They are flashing some offensive firepower by scoring over 30 points in back-to-back weeks. Unfortunately, Detroit is allowing a league-worst 28.2 points per game and will be facing off against a Bills offense that has the second-most points in the NFL. While Buffalo still did not look like the elite team they were to start the season, they got back on track with a victory over the Browns last week. Buffalo is 5-1 straight up in their last six games against the Lions, while Detroit is 37-43-2 all-time on Thanksgiving. Expect this to be a high-scoring matchup, and for it to remain competitive but for the Bills to ultimately pull away and get the win. Bills 41, Lions 27.

Thursday (4:30): New York Giants (+9) over Dallas Cowboys

There is a lot at stake in this NFC East matchup with both teams coming in with a 7-3 record. The Giants are coming off a disappointing loss at the hands of the Lions in which they did not look good at all. New York held a lead at the end of the first quarter before Detroit scored three consecutive touchdowns to blow the game open. In contrast, the Cowboys produced a commanding 40-3 win over the Vikings. This was a convincing performance from Dallas but one in which Minnesota came out completely flat. Kirk Cousins threw for just 105 yards in the matchup. It is tough to bet against a team after that type of performance, and expect Dallas to come out on top in this matchup. However, this is too large of a spread for a divisional matchup, so the better bet would be the Giants to cover. Dallas 31, New York 27.

Thursday (8:20): New England Patriots (+3) over Minnesota Vikings

The 6-4 Patriots are coming off a thrilling walk-off punt return victory over the Jets. The Vikings are at the opposite end of the spectrum following their deflating loss to the Cowboys that ended a seven-game winning streak. New England has won five of their last six games and held opponents to under 17 points in all five of these wins. The Vikings have struggled on defense and have allowed over 30 points and 450 total yards for two consecutive weeks. As great as the Vikings have looked for most of the season, it feels they are coming back down to reality to some extent. Count on Bill Belichick to have the Patriots ready to go and for them to do enough to come out on top in the matchup. Patriots 24, Vikings 20.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) over Cleveland Browns

The Buccaneers will be coming off their bye week following their Week 10 victory over the Seahawks in Germany. They hold a record of 5-5 on the season but still sit in first place in the NFC South. In contrast, the Browns are 3-7 after losing to the Bills last week and are in desperate need of a win before Deshaun Watson make his return. Their play has not been overly inspiring as Cleveland is allowing the second-most points defensively by allowing 26.9 points per game. Despite the slow start, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers appear to be finding their stride at the right time. Look for them to add another tally to the win column by taking down the Browns 35-21.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) over Tennessee Titans

The 7-3 Titans will face off with the 6-4 Bengals with both teams trending in the right direction. Cincinnati is coming off two consecutive victories, with their most recent in a come-from-fashion to secure the 37-30 win over the Steelers. The Titans are also riding a two-game winning streak and most recently contributed to the Packers’ downward spiral by taking them down 27-17. The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games and 5-0 ATS in their last five matchups against the Titans. Expect their offensive firepower to be just a little too much for Tennessee, but this one may very well come down to the wire. Stopping Derrick Henry is the biggest key, and Cincinnati’s 12th ranked rushing defense at least gives them a chance. Bengals 27, Titans 24.

Miami Dolphins (-12) over Houston Texans

The Miami Dolphins are coming off their bye week and quietly one of the NFL’s biggest contenders. They are 7-3 on the season ranking 6th in the league in scoring and 3rd in yards. Tyreek Hill is leading the NFL in receiving yards with 1,148, while Jaylen Waddle is 5th in the league with 878. Miami will be facing off against the 1-8-1 Texans, who have failed to get anything going this season. They rank 30th in scoring and 32nd in yards while giving up the second-most yards defensively. There have been discussions about bench Davis Mills, but the team needs more than a quarterback change to move in the right direction. Expect the Dolphins to pick up a convincing win and continue legitimizing their postseason resume. Miami 34, Texans 10.

Chicago Bears (+4.5) over New York Jets

Two of the top quarterbacks of the 2021 draft are facing off and appear to be trending in opposite directions. Justin Fields has injected some life into the Bears franchise, but this has not translated to the win column. Fields has dazzled with his legs and been must-watch television, but Chicago has lost their last three games by a combined seven points. In contrast, Zach Wilson does not have as secure of the job in New York. Wilson completed nine of his 22 pass attempts for just 77 yards in the recent loss while being sacked four times. The 23-year-old is under heat for not taking responsibility for his poor performance, and a quarterback change has been discussed. The Jets defense is the real deal, ranking Top 10 in yards and points allowed, and will give Fields and the Bears some issues. However, it is tough to feel confident about the Jets getting much offense going. The Bears are due for a win and have a terrific chance to get it done in this matchup. Take Chicago to win this one by a score of 24-13.

Washington Commanders (-4) over Atlanta Falcons

The 5-6 Falcons will travel to Washington to face off with the 6-5 Commanders, which will prove to be a crucial matchup in the NFC Wild Card race. Washington has officially named Taylor Heinicke their starting quarterback after winning four of five games as the starter during Carson Wentz’s injury. The team has seen some new life under him as quarterback. The Falcons have seen some highs and lows this season but have exceeded expectations overall. This is not due to their defense as they rank 27th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed. With Chase Young set to make his return to the field, and Heinicke riding the excitement of his first game as the official starter, expect the Commanders to pick up the victory in front of their home crowd. Washington 23, Atlanta 17.

Denver Broncos (-2.5) over Carolina Panthers

The 3-7 Broncos are set to face off with the 3-8 Panthers following a frustrating overtime loss at the hands of the Raiders. Denver is ranking third in the NFL in points allowed by giving up just 17.1 points per game but ranked dead last in scoring themselves by producing just 14.7 points per game. If they were able to score just 18 points in each game, they would be 9-1 on the season. On the other hand, Carolina has had little to get excited about and rank in the Bottom 10 in points and yards as well as points and yards allowed. Count on the Broncos to muster up enough scoring in the matchup and for the defense to continue their streak of production. Denver 20, Carolina 9.

Baltimore Ravens (-4) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Ravens are one of the four teams in the AFC sitting at 7-3 and looking to climb to the top seed in the conference. Baltimore ranks 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards and 9th in scoring as a team. Lamar Jackson’s has gotten back on the right track after a brief skid in the middle of the season. The Ravens are 9-2 straight up in their last 11 games against AFC South opponents, while the Jaguars are 0-5 straight up in their last five games against AFC North opponents. Jacksonville is coming off their bye week and most recently lost at the hands of the Chiefs. They sit at 3-7 on the season and have lost some momentum after their strong start to the season. Count on the Ravens to continue cementing their postseason resume and pick up another solid win. Ravens 27, Jaguars 17.

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) over Arizona Cardinals

Both the Chargers and Cardinals still have a great deal to prove this season. Los Angeles sits at 5-5 on the season, while Arizona is 4-7. Kyler Murray was unable to suit up for the Monday Night matchup against the 49ers in which San Francisco produced a dominant 38-10 victory. This has continued the streak of poor defense as Arizona ranks 31st in points allowed and 24th in yards allowed on the season. The Chargers also have a porous defense which ranks 29th in points allowed and 25th in in yards allowed. Expect this to be a shootout, and Murray’s status will be one to monitor as gametime gets closer. Take the Chargers to pick up the win regardless as they attempt to remain in the playoff mix. Los Angeles 33, Arizona 24.

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) over Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are riding high after their second victory of the season over the Broncos and will now face off against Russell Wilson’s former team in the Seahawks. Seattle has impressed to start the season and sit at 6-4 on the season, which puts them well within the playoff picture. This is no fluke as Geno Smith has played like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and the team ranks 5th in the NFL in points scored. The Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against the Seahawks but 1-6 straight up in their last seven road games. Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. It is time to fully buy in on Geno Smith and the Seahawks and count on them to take care of business against a frustrating Raiders team. Seattle 24, Las Vegas 17.

Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5) over Los Angeles Rams

The Chiefs have a stronghold on the top spot in the AFC with their 8-2 record and are riding a four-game winning streak heading into this matchup. The Rams have now fully cemented their spot as one of the most disappointing teams so far this season, sitting at 3-7 on the year. Kansas City has a dangerous offensive unit, ranking best in the NFL with 429.3 yards per game and scoring 30 points per game. Los Angeles has struggled to score points this year and are producing the third-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points per game. The Rams just lack the firepower to keep up with Kansas City, and look to be set to continue down their downward spiral. Chiefs 38, Rams 17.

San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) over New Orleans Saints

The 49ers will be riding high following their dominant win on Monday night over the Cardinals by a score of 38-10. They sit at 6-4 on the season, which has them tied for first in the NFC West. They are trending in the right direction and are in the process of establishing themselves as one of the true Super Bowl Contenders. They have a valuable chance to continue this against the 4-7 Saints, who most recently defeated the Rams. Jimmy Garoppolo has looked terrific since returning to his starting role, and the addition of Christian McCaffrey has further made the offense more dangerous. Pairing this with San Francisco’s defense, which is holding opponents to the fourth fewest points and fewest yards, makes for a dangerous combination. Count on them to continue their statement tour and dismantle to Saints in this matchup. San Francisco 31, New Orleans 17.

Sunday Night: Philadelphia Eagles (-7) over Green Bay Packers

Barring a miracle, the Green Bay Packers are out of the playoff race with their 4-7 record and following their 27-17 loss to the Titans. In contrast, the Eagles rebounded from their first loss of the season and took down the Colts by a score of 17-16 to move to 9-1 on the year. It was not an inspiring performance from the Eagles overall, but Jalen Hurts’ ability to will the team to win was noteworthy. Adding some defensive tackle help in Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph has improved the Eagles rushing defense, which is a notable storyline moving forward. Coming off back-to-back weeks in which the Eagles played poorly, they appear due to get back to the team they flashed to be early on. Philadelphia has a great chance to do this against a Packers team that ranks 26th in points scored and is allowing the 16th most points per game defensively. Expect the Eagles to put forth an impressive performance and produce a double-digit victory. Philadelphia 27, Green Bay 17.

Monday Night: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

The 3-7 Steelers are set to face off with 4-6-1 Colts, with each team coming off a loss. Both teams have taken some strides forward since the start of the season but are far from the contending conversation. Indianapolis appears to have woken up under new head coach Jeff Saturday and nearly pulled off the upset win over the Eagles last week. However, the Colts are 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games against the AFC North, while Pittsburg is 5-1 ATS in its last six matchups with Indianapolis. The Colts are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as the favorite. Expect the Colts to continue progressing on the season and pick up another victory in this one. Indianapolis 24, Pittsburgh 20.

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