NFL Office Pool Picks Week 13 with Expert Analysis and ATS Predictions
Week 12 may very well go down as the best week of football this season as it kicked off with the three-game slate on Thanksgiving and finished with a wild slate on Sunday as well as the Steelers Monday Night Football victory over the Colts. Several teams are on the brink of clinching a playoff spot as the home stretch of the season is here. Favorites went 11-5 on the moneyline but 7-8-1 against the spread in Week 12. The Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers will each be taking their byes this week. Here is an early look at the schedule for Week 13 and what to expect from each matchup.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Thursday Night: Buffalo Bills (-5) over New England Patriots
This is a rare Thursday Night matchup in which the teams will have a full week of rest as both played during Thanksgiving. The 8-3 Bills will be motivated as they are still looking to win the AFC East with the Dolphins also holding an 8-3 record and the Jets just one game behind them at 7-4. The Patriots also have a ton to play for as they sit at 6-5 and will be attempting to get back into the playoff picture after losing to the Vikings on Thanksgiving. Buffalo ranks 2nd in the NFL in scoring and yards, while New England is allowing the 6th fewest points and 4th fewest yards. The Bills are 12-3 straight up in their last 15 games against AFC East opponents, and it may be time to be buying low on the Bills. While both these teams are solid, Buffalo’s defense continues get healthier, while the offense has only been limited by Josh Allen’s interceptions. Look for them to extend their winning streak to three and produce a 27-17 victory.
Atlanta Falcons (PK) over Pittsburgh Steelers
The 4-7 Steelers will travel to Atlanta to face off with the 5-7 Falcons fresh off a Monday Night victory over the Colts. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in the league in scoring, as they average 17.6 points and allow 23.7 points per game, which ranks 24th in the NFL. Atlanta also has allowed plenty of points and rank 25th in points allowed at 24.4 per game. They also are 28th in yards allowed and 27th in yards on offense. The Falcons tallied just 165 yards of total offense this past week against the Commanders, and the Falcons lost 19-13. The Falcons allowed points in every quarter during this matchup. Neither team has major aspirations on the season, but the Falcons look due for a bounce back win. Take the Falcons to secure the win at home by a touchdown or more.
Chicago Bears (+3) over Green Bay Packers
The quarterback situation will be a major storyline leading up to this matchup. Aaron Rodgers left the Sunday Night matchup in an eerily similar scenario to how he took the starting role from Brett Farve over 15 years ago. While Rodgers has indicated he would like to play as long as he is healthy, considering the 4-8 record of Green Bay, it would not be shocking if they want to further explore what they have in Jordan Love. For the Bears, Justin Fields also missed last week’s matchup after dislocating his shoulder the week prior. Chicago lost this matchup to the Jets by a comfortable margin and sit at 3-9 on the season. The Packers won the first matchup of these two teams by a score of 27-10. While this is one you will probably want to stay away from until there is more clarity on who will be under center, lean toward the Bears to pick up the win to even the season series.
Detroit Lions (+1) over Jacksonville Jaguars
The Lions have played much better football than their 4-7 record would indicate. They narrowly lost to the Bills 28-25 on Thanksgiving and had a three-game winning streak before this. Despite having a defense that ranks dead last in both points and yards allowed, Detroit competes on an every-down basis and ranks 8th in scoring offensively. The Jaguars also come into the matchup with a 4-7 record but are riding the momentum of a thrilling 28-27 victory over the Ravens. Jacksonville ranks 16th in scoring and 9th in yards on the season. The Jaguars are 0-9 against the spread in their last nine games against NFC opponents, while the Lions are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 home games. While Detroit has had some frustrating losses, it is difficult to predict what the Jaguars will look like on a weekly basis. Lions 31, Jaguars 17.
New York Jets (+3) over Minnesota Vikings
Mike White mania has struck New York after the franchise benched Zach Wilson in favor of the 27-year-old. White threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns and led the team to 31-10 victory. New York now sits at 7-4 on the season and has been playing some really good football. Unfortunately, they will face one of their more difficult matchups of the season against the 9-2 Vikings, who most recently took down the Patriots. It will be a difficult task to slow down Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Minnesota offense, but the Jets 4th ranked scoring defense has as good of chance as anyone. Expect this one to be a thriller but for the Jets to make another statement why they are legit. As long as White continues to play well, the defense will be enough to keep them in the game. New York 23, Minnesota 17.
Washington Commanders (-2.5) over New York Giants
The Giants have cooled off from their strong start to the season by losing three of their last four and most recently at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys to fall to 7-4 on the season. They will now face off with the 7-5 Commanders, who seem to be hitting their stride and are 6-1 in their last seven games. This matchup does not hold the divisional ramifications as one might expect as the teams sit in third and fourth in the NFC East. However, if the playoffs started today, all four teams would be in the postseason. Washington has looked like a different team since Taylor Heinicke took control, and expect this to continue in this matchup. Commanders 27, Giants 17.
Tennessee Titans (+5.5) to cover vs Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles continue to hold the best record in the NFL at 10-1 and most recently took down the Packers on Sunday Night Football. Jalen Hurts looks to be a legitimate MVP candidate, and the offense ranks third in scoring and fourth in yards on the season. However, one of their few weaknesses is in run defense, which will be tested against a Titans offense that ranks 2nd in rush attempts and 3rd in rushing yards across the NFL. Expect this one to remain close and for Derrick Henry to do some damage, especially since starting safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson suffered an injury last week. Count on the Eagles to get the win in front of the home crowd but for the Titans to keep it within a field goal. Philadelphia 31, Tennessee 28.
Baltimore Ravens (-8) over Denver Broncos
The Ravens come into this matchup following a heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Jaguars by a score of 28-27 as a last second 67-yard field goal from Justin Tucker unable to connect. They will now be facing off with a Broncos team that is familiar with plenty of heartbreak this season, and Russell Wilson was even being yelled at by his own defensive teammate for the lack of production last week. Denver’s offense is averaging the fewest points per game of any offense since the 2000 Browns at 14.27 per game. While the Broncos defense has held opponents to the third-fewest points at 17.6 per game, expect Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense to give them some trouble. It has been an incredibly disappointing season for the Broncos, and turning it around in Baltimore against the 7-4 Ravens just doesn’t look to be in the cards. Baltimore 27, Denver 13.
Houston Texans (+7) to cover vs Cleveland Browns
In one of the more notable matchups across the entire year, Deshaun Watson is set to make his return to the football field for the first time since 2020. He will be facing off with his former team in Houston, and the Texans are having a disappointing 1-9-1 season thus far. The Texans rank in the bottom 10 for points and yards on both sides of the ball this season. While they may have more to play for than a typical game, there is too large of a talent gap to expect the Texans to get the win. Count on this one to remain closer than most expect as Watson knocks off some rust but for the Browns to get the win and move to 5-7. Browns 20, Texans 17.
Seattle Seahawks (-7) over Los Angeles Rams
This has the potential to be an ugly game as the Seahawks defense ranks 28th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed on the season. They will face off with a Rams offense that is producing the second-fewest yards and ranks 29th in scoring. Matt Stafford missed last week with a concussion, and his outlook does not look great for the week. Expect Geno Smith and the Seahawks to do enough to get the win and move to 7-5 on the season. Seattle is coming off a frustrating 40-34 loss to the Raiders and should be hungry for revenge. Seahawks 27, Rams 13.
San Francisco 49ers (-4) over Miami Dolphins
Two of the more surprising Super Bowl threats each have a great deal to prove in this matchup. Miami has scored more than 30 points in four straight games and sit at 8-3 on the season. The team is putting up the sixth-most points in the NFL, with both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill each already tallying over 900 yards receiving on the season. They will face a difficult task against a 49ers defense that ranks first in points and yards allowed. San Francisco most recently took down the Saints, 13-0, and will be riding a four-game winning streak into this matchup. The addition of Christian McCaffrey has been notable, and San Francisco has been playing hungry. Expect them to put forth a convincing victory with each of these teams having their eyes on the larger prize. 49ers 28, Dolphins 17.
Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
The last time these two teams faced off, the Bengals stunned the Chiefs in the AFC title game en route to their trip to the Super Bowl. After a slow start to the season, Cincinnati appears to be hitting their stride and have won five of their last six matchups. On the season, the Bengals rank 5th in scoring and 6th in yards. However, they will have stiff competition against the Chiefs, who lead the NFL in both scoring and yards. They have struggles defensively, however, ranking dead last in red zone defense, as they are currently allowing a touchdown on 70.59% of red zone trips. The Bengals are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games as well as 12-2 against the spread against AFC opponents. Expect Cincinnati to further strengthen their resume and produce a statement win. Bengals 38, Chiefs 30.
Las Vegas Raiders (+2) over Los Angeles Chargers
These two AFC West foes will face off for the second time this season, with the Chargers picking up a 24-19 win in Week 1. The Raiders have shown some signs of life of late, sitting at 4-7 on the season and riding a two-game winning streak, with both wins coming in overtime. Their most recent win was over the Seahawks with a walk off 86-yard touchdown by Josh Jacobs, putting the exclamation point on the win. The Chargers have struggled to get stops this year, ranking 29th in opponents’ points scored in 26th in yards allowed. Expect this to be a high-scoring matchup but for the Raiders to get their revenge as they desperately scrap to right their season. Las Vegas 33, Los Angeles 30.
Sunday Night: Dallas Cowboys (-11) over Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have slipped to 4-7-1 on the season following their Monday Night loss at the hands of the Steelers. They have struggled to get anything going offensively, with Matt Ryan throwing the second-most interceptions in the league (11) while being sacked the fifth most times (32). This will be put to the test against a Cowboys defensive line that is leading the NFL with 45 sacks. They also are allowing the second-fewest points in the league and seventh fewest yards. The Cowboys sit at 8-3 on the season and have not given up hope of catching the Eagles for the top seed in the NFC East. They also have tallied more than 40 points in two of the past four weeks and are seventh in scoring on the season. Expect this to be a convincing victory for Dallas by at least two touchdowns as these two teams are trending in opposite directions.
Monday Night: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) over New Orleans Saints
The NFC South is still wide open, with the Buccaneers leading the race with their 5-6 record. This will be a big game for the standings and Tampa Bay will be playing with plenty to prove. The Saints have the worst turnover margin in the NFL and rank in the bottom 10 in points scored and yards allowed. In contrast, the Buccaneers have impressed defensively, ranking seventh in points allowed and ninth in yards allowed. They have struggled greatly on offense as they rank 27th in scoring and 18th in yards. Tampa Bay is coming off another frustrating loss at the hands of the Browns in overtime last week. While the Saints have shown some positive flashes this season, and the Bucks have underwhelmed, it is difficult to bet against Tom Brady in primetime. Expect this one to come down to the wire but for the Buccaneers to pick up the victory and pave their path to the playoffs. Tampa Bay 27, New Orleans 20.