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NFL Office Pool Picks Week 4 with Expert Analysis and ATS Predictions

by Sean Barnard - 9/28/2022

NFL office pool picks Week 4 Jared Goff Detroit Lions

It was a difficult Week 3 for favorites in the NFL. Underdogs were 10-6 outright and 10-5-1 ATS in the madness of the week. Some notable upsets included the Dolphins over the Bills, the Jaguars over the Chargers, and the Colts over the Chiefs. There are just two 3-0 teams remaining in the NFL as both the Eagles and Dolphins have emerged as surprise contenders. With the league beginning to separate and some teams needing a win, let’s look at the Week 4 slate.

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Thursday Night Game: Bengals (-3.5) over Dolphins

The Dolphins cruise into this game riding high after their 21-19 upset win over the Bills. This was a statement win to advance to 3-0, but it was a weird game in which Miami ran just 39 plays compared to the Bills' 90 snaps. The Bengals picked up their first win of the season last week  by knocking off the Jets 27-12 in a much-improved effort. While the Dolphins have impressed greatly and deserve a ton of credit for the start to the season, expect them to find themselves in the loss column for the first time. Count on this matchup to stay close but for the Bengals to secure a 27-21 victory as they begin returning to the contenders they are capable of being.

Sunday Morning in London: Vikings (-2.5) over Saints

In a Sunday morning matchup, the Vikings will have a chance to move to 3-1 after taking down the Detroit Lions in Week 3. The Saints are 1-2 on the season and struggled in their lone victory in the opening week against the Falcons. While Minnesota has failed to look like the team that was expected heading into the season, this is a chance for them to get on track. Expect the Viking to cruise to a double-digit victory.

Browns (-1.5) over Falcons

The Cleveland Browns come into this matchup well rested after their Thursday night victory over the Steelers in Week 3. The status of Myles Garrett will be one to watch as the former No. 1 pick got into a car accident this week and his status is currently unclear. Regardless, expect the Browns to move to 3-1 on the year when they travel to Atlanta. The Falcons have shown more fight than expected and will be coming in off a victory over the Seahawks. However, the Browns strong running game should be the difference in this one. Take the Browns to win by a touchdown.

Commanders (+3.5) over Cowboys

While Dak Prescott has not shut down the possibility of him returning to play, the Cowboys are 2-0 in the games that Cooper Rush has started and are coming off a divisional victory over the Giants. The Commanders, on the other hand, are coming a loss to the Eagles and sit at 1-2 on the season. While Dallas has been impressive with Rush at QB, expect the Commanders to channel some divisional magic and find a way to win this one. Carson Wentz had a significantly better second half against the Eagles. And if he can build off this performance, the team should have no issues. Commanders 24, Cowboys 13.

Lions (-4.5) over Seahawks

There has been a notable decline in the Seattle Seahawks play following their opening week win over the Broncos. They have fallen to 1-2 and now will face off with the Detroit Lions, who hold the same record. Despite losing two of the first three games, the Lions have scored an impressive 28.6 points per game. They are the more complete football team in this matchup and will look to capitalize on the opportunity for a win. Expect Detroit to control the game and secure a win by a touchdown or more.

Colts (-3) over Titans

The Colts looked to be one of the biggest disappointments through the first two weeks but managed to pick up an impressive upset victory over the Chiefs in Week 3. The Titans also started the season 0-2 but are coming off a hard-fought victory over the Raiders. Count on Indianapolis to ride the momentum they currently have and find their way back to .500. They are a better team than they showed early on this season and will prove this against the Titans. Colts 31, Titans 21.

Giants (-3) over Bears

The Giants had their perfect start to the season spoiled by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football and will be looking for revenge on a short week. They have a great opportunity to find it as the Bears are not as complete as their 2-1 record may indicate. While Justin Fields has shown some flashes, the concerns with the offensive lines and the difficulty Chicago will have stopping Saquon Barkley will prove to be too much. Expect the Giants to win by at least a touchdown.

Jaguars (+6.5) to cover vs Eagles

There is sure to be a warm welcome as Super Bowl winning head coach Doug Pederson is set to make his return to Philadelphia. Both teams have impressed to start the season, with the Eagles coming in 3-0 and the Jaguars coming off convincing victories over the Chargers and Colts. Expect this one to be a close matchup with both teams having a chance to win. Count on the Eagles to hold on in front of the home crowd, but the spread will be too large in this one. Eagles 24, Jaguars 21.

 Steelers (-3.5) over Jets

The 31-30 victory over the Browns in Week 2 has been the lone bright spot on an otherwise disappointing season for the Jets. Joe Flacco is leading the NFL is pass attempts, which is a strong indicator of how much time New York has spent playing from behind. In comparison, the Steelers made a statement in their opening week victory over the Bengals but are coming off back-to-back losses. With the home crowd behind them and a winnable matchup, expect Pittsburgh to get back on top. The battle between the Steelers wide receivers and Jets cornerbacks will have a massive impact on who comes out on top but have faith in Pittsburgh. Steelers 30, Jets 17.

Ravens (+3.5) over Bills

This is set to be one of the more exciting matchups of the week. The Bills suffered a shocking loss at the hands of the Dolphins in Week 3 where the team made some notable clock management errors. They will now travel to Baltimore where they will face the Ravens with Lamar Jackson playing like a man on a mission. The Bills are still one of the most complete teams in the NFL and should be considered legitimate Super Bowl threats. However, I expect the Ravens to pull off the upset at home and for Lamar Jackson to further prove he is worth every penny he is asking for. There is a real argument he has looked more impressive this year than he did in his MVP season, and he is showing no signs of slowing down. Ravens 28, Bills 24.

Texans (+5.5) to cover vs Chargers

It was uncertain if Justin Herbert was going to play in Week 3 due to the rib injury he sustained. He decided to suit up and was in notable pain during the team’s 38-10 loss to the Jaguars. The Chargers even elected to leave Herbert in with the game well out of reach, which seemed a strange decision. The Texans are one of the bottom-tier teams in the NFL and currently hold a record of 0-2-1. This is a great chance for the Chargers to get back on the right foot and climb back into the contending category. However, expect this one to be closer than it should be. Take the Texans to cover but for the Chargers to ultimately come out on top. Chargers 17, Texans 13.

Cardinals (+1.5) over Panthers

Both the Cardinals and Panthers have been somewhat disappointing through the first three weeks of the season. Baker Mayfield may very well be playing himself out of a starting quarterback role, and the Cardinals seem to be running backyard football plays on an every-down basis. This likely will be one of the sloppier games in the weekend slate. Kyler Murray remains the more talented quarterback, and this will prove to be enough to get the upset victory in Carolina. Cardinals by a field goal or more.

Patriots (+10.5) to cover vs Packers

Mac Jones sustained a high ankle sprain, which is set to hold him out for a few weeks. Brian Hoyer is set to step in while he recovers and attempt to improve the team’s 1-2 record. New England will face off with the 2-1 Packers, who are coming off a victory over the Buccaneers in what may have been Rodgers and Brady’s last time squaring off. Green Bay has not quite found its stride this year and will be looking to secure a convincing win in this matchup. You can never count out the Patriots, and expect this to be closer than the spread indicates. Packers 27, Patriots 20.

Raiders (-2) over Broncos

The Broncos may be heading into the matchup 2-1 but have plenty of room for improvement based on the level of play they have produced. They will be facing off with the Las Vegas Raiders, who are the only 0-3 team in the NFL. This is certainly a must-win matchup for the Raiders as they desperately look to get their season back on track. Expect them to make this happen and cruise past the Broncos in this divisional matchup. Russell Wilson simply has not been the quarterback it was hoped he would be, and the Raiders will be playing with plenty of emotion and desperation. Las Vegas by a touchdown or more.

Sunday Night: Chiefs (-2) over Buccaneers

Both the Chiefs and Buccaneers enter this game 2-1 and looking to rebound off a disappointing Week 3 loss. The Bucs were unable to get the better of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, with the three interceptions from Tom Brady being a major reason why. Expect the Chiefs' offense to be the difference in this matchup and for them to get the victory on the road. They failed to get any sort of running game going against the Colts and saw their playbook shortened throughout the game. Don’t expect this to occur again and for Kansas City to secure a victory of a field goal or more.

Monday Night: 49ers (-2.5) over Rams

A rematch of the 2021 NFC Championship is slated for the Monday Night matchup with the Rams and 49ers each filled with interesting storylines. Jimmy Garoppolo was unable to get the offense going against the Broncos and suffered an 11-10 loss last week in his first game starting following Trey Lance’s injury. The Rams have built solid momentum after picking up back-to-back victories following their opening week loss to the Bills. Expect a focused performance from San Francisco as they look to even up the division lead at 2-2 in front of their home crowd. This is sure to be a tight matchup, but count on San Francisco to be ready to make a statement. 49ers 33, Rams 30.

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