NFL Office Pool Picks Week 3
The first two weeks of the season are over and done with, and the landscape of the league has already been vastly altered. Several teams have fallen short of expectations, as the Vikings, Bengals, and Chargers all find themselves in an 0-2 hole. In just a 17-game season, a bad start could spoil a stellar campaign, and the Super Bowl hopefuls will be eager to quickly right the ship. Favorites once again fell short ATS, going 5-8-3 on the closing lines, after going 6-10 in Week 1. We went a solid 8-7-1 ATS last week, and here’s a look at all 16 Week 3 matchups, with the best bet ATS attached.
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San Francisco 49ers (-10) Over New York Giants
The 49ers take on the Giants on Thursday Night Football, and the gulf in class between these two squads will result in a blowout. The game is being played in San Francisco, far away from home for the Giants on a short week after taking down the Cardinals. The Giants looked awful throughout most of that game, while the 49ers have yet to play a bad half all season. Brock Purdy has been spreading the ball amongst his weapons. And with Saquon Barkley out for several games, the Giants have no real difference makers. This one will be over before halftime. 49ers 31, Giants 10
Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) Over Detroit Lions
The Falcons drafted RB Bijan Robinson very early in the draft and have used him accordingly. The Texas draft pick has already run for 180 yards in his first two games and is the cornerstone for a Falcons attack. The Lions have been unable to effectively run the football. And even if they get a lead, they’ll have trouble running out the clock. I expect a low scoring, tight game, with the Lions knocking through a last second field goal to send the Detroit crowd home happy. They win, but don’t cover. Lions 23, Falcons 21
Washington Commanders (+6.5) Over Buffalo Bills
On paper, this spread looks reasonable. The Bills have been perennial Super Bowl contenders for the last few years, while Washington hasn’t finished above .500 since 2016. However, something has changed for the Commanders. The introduction of Eric Bieniemy has sprung the Commanders offense to life, and they have a stellar defense to back them up. Their 2-0 start has been no fluke, and Josh Allen has the tendency to throw winnable games away in the clutch. When the front 7 for the Commanders gets to Allen, the defense will reap the rewards. It’s an upset, but I’m calling for a Commanders outright win along with an easy cover. Commanders 24, Bills 21
Miami Dolphins (-6.5) Over Denver Broncos
The Dolphins offense is firing on all cylinders, and this is a more than fair spread for this matchup. All eyes will be on the Denver defense and whether or not they can contain Tua Tagovailoa, as it is clear Russell Wilson has seen better days. The Dolphins are due for a letdown spot. However, in their home opener, they’ll use the home crowd to push them to a win and cover thanks to another gem from Tyreek Hill. Dolphins 30, Broncos 23
Houston Texans (+9) Over Jacksonville Jaguars
The Texans still have plenty of growing pains to endure, but I expect them to get their first cover of the season in Jacksonville. A mediocre Chiefs defense was able to slow down Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense. And in this divisional matchup, the Texans defense will be going all out. If the Texans can find the endzone just twice, it will probably be enough to get the cover. Nearly a double digit spread in a divisional game? It’s screaming for a backdoor cover. Jaguars 24, Texans 17
Baltimore Ravens (-8) Over Indianapolis Colts
The Ravens won their first game by double digits against an AFC South opponent, and I expect them to do so once again in Week 3. The defense in Baltimore has always been among the best. And now that Lamar Jackson has weapons keeping opposing defenses honest, there will be a few more double-digit blowouts this season. The Colts have a capable backup in Gardner Minshew if Anthony Richardson can’t suit up. Regardless of who is under center, the Ravens will find the QB early and often. Ravens 27, Colts 12
Minnesota Vikings (+1) Over LA Chargers
Both of these teams were expected to make the playoffs, yet have a combined 0-4 record heading into Week 3. This is as much of a must win game a Week 3 matchup can be, as an 0-3 hole would likely see either franchise kiss their playoff hopes goodbye. The Chargers have a solid offense with Justin Herbert and Austin Ekler forming a formidable tandem, but they have absolutely no defensive support. On the other side of the field, Justin Jefferson is already set to have another career year, but the Vikings haven’t been able to turn his big plays into wins. There’s a reason this spread is so short, as neither team is worth your hard-earned cash. Gun to the head, I’ll take the slight home underdogs to find a way to win. Vikings 28, Chargers 26
New York Jets (+2.5) Over New England Patriots
The Patriots have started 0-2 for the first time since 2001, and a road trip to a stout New York Jets defense will not be an easy task to pass. Zach Wilson certainly has plenty of room to grow. However, as long as this Jets defense remains intact, they will remain within striking distance in most games. Mac Jones hasn’t shown any reason to expect him to score consistently. And in what will be a punt filled contest, the Jets narrowly edge out their longtime division rivals. Jets 18, Patriots 16
New Orleans Saints (+2) Over Green Bay Packers
Other than a meaningless garbage time touchdown, the Saints defense has yet to allow their opposition to find the endzone. Their defense is quickly becoming a no fly zone for deep threats, and opponents are forced to take easy checkdowns to find success. Jordan Love will struggle to find those pockets with Aaron Jones on the shelf, and the Saints quarterback tandem of Derek Carr and Taysom Hill will take care of the ball and leave the rest to their elite defense. Some teams are built to beat the Saints. However, the Packers are not, regardless of the venue. Saints 22, Packers 15
Tennessee Titans (+3) Over Cleveland Browns
The loss of any team's leading running back can be devastating, but the loss of Nick Chubb hurts even more. Deshaun Watson cannot be trusted as a favorite, especially without his co-star. Across the field, the Titans managed to upset the Chargers last week, and kept things close in Week 1. Ryan Tannehill is a solid quarterback who rarely makes serious mistakes, and I don’t see how this one gets away from the Titans. I expected this line to be close to PK. And considering we’re getting 3 points with the Titans, they are absolutely the play on Sunday. Titans 20, Browns 16
Seattle Seahawks (-6) Over Carolina Panthers
The Panthers haven’t been able to get anything going with Bryce Young at quarterback and are apparently allergic to taking shots down the field. Without the explosive plays, it’s very difficult to win in the NFL. The Seahawks are no strangers to explosive plays, as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are all capable of turning games on their head once Geno Smith delivers the ball. It probably won’t take much to beat Carolina, and the Seahawks leave absolutely no doubt they are a playoff caliber team. Seahawks 31, Panthers 12
Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) Over Chicago Bears
The Chiefs stayed composed, and took down the Jaguars in Week 2 to avoid an 0-2 hole to start the season. On the other hand, the Bears have shown absolutely no composure when it matters most and will struggle to put wins on the board with any sort of regularity. Patrick Mahomes leaned on solid defense to beat Jacksonville, and at home, against a weak Chicago squad, I expect a highlight reel game from the MVP candidate. The Chiefs may have lost on a national stage to start the season, but Andy Reid knows how to right the ship. Chiefs 40, Bears 14
Arizona Cardinals (+12) Over Dallas Cowboys
While I expect the Cowboys to win this game with ease, I don’t think it will be a blowout. The Cardinals have done surprisingly well in their opening games, and a 12-point spread is disrespectful to what they’ve done thus far. The Cowboys have been dominant. However, on the road, against a team with nothing to lose, I expect them to take their foot off the gas in the second half, and for Arizona to keep it close. Cowboys 28, Cardinals 20
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders
The Steelers need a serious change on offense, but luckily their defense will keep them in just about any contest this year. TJ Watt is once again submitting his name into DPOY conversations. And as long as Kenny Pickett takes care of the football, they can beat the Raiders. The Raiders are not good enough to beat the Steelers in the trenches, and Jimmy Garoppolo rarely takes shots down the field. In what will be a ‘grind it out’ style of a game, Mike Tomlin’s unit is far more prepared to take home the victory. Steelers 19, Raiders 12
Philadelphia Eagles (-5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers may be 2-0, but have lacked any real poise from Baker Mayfield. He’s not playing poorly, but he lacks the ability to compete with the league’s best. The Eagles have one of the best offensive and defensive lines in the league and should be able to bully-ball their way to victory on Monday Night Football. Jalen Hurts and co. may have lost a step from last season, but there is no doubt in my mind they will be the ones to emerge 3-0 over the Buccaneers. As far as the 5-point spread goes, it’s much tighter than the moneyline. However, considering the Buccaneers have benefitted from a +5 turnover differential through two games, their good luck will run out. Hurts will shine under the spotlight and carry the Eagles to victory. Eagles 28, Buccaneers 17
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) Over LA Rams
The Bengals may be 0-2 to start the season, but they still have the components that brought them to back to back AFC Championship Games. The Rams are everyone’s favorite bets at the moment. However, against a desperate Bengals squad, they will not fill people’s pockets. As long as he plays, Joe Burrow will refuse to allow his team to fall to 0-3. The remaining skill position players have to step up for Cincinnati, and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will remind the league why they are among the best 1-2 punches in the league. Bengals 27, Rams 14
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