NFL Power Rankings Week 13
Take that, sportsbooks.
In the Eternal Struggle between The Bettors and The Books, there are rarely decisive blows struck either way. Most of the time sports wagering and this bettor/book battle is a grind, a slow, mathematical slog for supremacy over the long term.
But sometimes things like Week 12 in the NFL happen and it is like a haymaker to the soul of one of the combatants.
NFL favorites went 12-4 against the spread last weekend. If the Bears hadn’t screwed it up (or the Vikings, you decide) on Monday Night Football, then Week 12 would have been “historic”, with 13 favorites covering the spread for the first time in the Super Bowl era.
What made things oh, so much worse for the sportsbooks last week was the fact that it was Thanksgiving. This is one of the biggest sports betting weeks of the year, with every square from Bangor, Maine, to Bakersfield, California, plopping down action to make the holidays a little more bearable.
Had the Vikings covered the spread on Monday Night Football, the weekly high holiday for public bettors, there might have been some oddsmakers heading for the bridges.
And what made the whole situation even funnier is that the week started in the best possible way for the books, with Green Bay pulling a surprising upset over Detroit in the Thanksgiving opener. That shot down all kinds of parlays, teasers and straight bets.
But that early loss may have also forced some bettors into Chase Mode. Which was then rewarded with a series of blowouts in the two remaining Thanksgiving games (which also went ‘over’) and the Black Friday bloodbath between Miami and New York!
Anyway, The Bettors take their fair share of defeats throughout any given football campaign. So, it is just nice when the tables get turned and our mortal enemies, the sportsbooks, take one on the chin.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) – I think it is a massive red flag that the sportsbooks have installed the Eagles as three-point home underdogs in this matchup with the 49ers. The books see the reality: Philadelphia shouldn’t have beaten the Chiefs, shouldn’t have beaten the Bills, and have had to come from behind to win their last four games. This team is leaking oil.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) – Rashee Rice is going to be a stud. I’m not saying that just because he’s coming off his best game as a pro. I’ve been saying for weeks that there is something to this kid. He is so explosive once he gets the ball in his hands. He is a young colt that still needs to be broken in on the nuances of playing receiver in the NFL. The Chiefs definitely have something, though, and they need to keep getting this kid the ball.
3. Baltimore Ravens (9-3) – Because of the bye week, Baltimore only plays one game over a 20-day span between Nov. 27 and Dec. 17. Everyone is convinced that this is an advantage for the Ravens because they will be “well rested”. I’m not so sure. As I have pointed out, sometimes the bye week eliminates momentum. And the Ravens, winners of six of seven while averaging 30.7 points per game, certainly had momentum to lose.
4. San Francisco 49ers (8-3) – I am absolutely a believer in revenge as a motivation in sports betting. It doesn’t happen all the time. It isn’t as big of a deal for some teams or in some sports as others. However, there is no doubt that San Francisco has had this game circled since the schedule came out and would love to make amends for that 31-7 abomination in the NFC Championship Game last January. The last five meetings in this series have gone ‘under’.
5. Dallas Cowboys (8-3) – Remember when Trevon Diggs tore his ACL in September and everyone thought that injury sunk Dallas’ Super Bowl hopes? How about DaRon Bland? Bland set an NFL record with his fifth pick-six of the season last game and has to be on the short list of defensive player of the year award contenders. Dallas has won 13 straight home games, and they are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite.
6. Miami Dolphins (8-3) – I had to laugh about the mini-controversy regarding Al Michaels and his bogus tale about Mike McDaniel ‘stealing’ his wife from a former player that he coached. Good stuff there. Also good stuff: Miami is now 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS against teams that are below .500. They’ve won and covered nine straight against overmatched opponents.
7. Detroit Lions (8-3) – The Lions ATM machine may finally be empty. Look, it was only a matter of time before the oddsmakers (and reality) caught up with the Lions. This team went on a 27-8 ATS run from the middle of the 2021 season through Week 12 of this year. That’s amazing. They are 0-2 ATS the last two weeks, though. And with four of their next five games on the road (they are likely to be favored in three of the four) the pendulum might be swinging the other way.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) – This doesn’t feel like a true championship-caliber team to me yet. But they aren’t far off. Some of the throws that both Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud were making on Sunday were ridiculous. The Jaguars are on a 7-1 ATS surge and get a chance to pound another overmatched opponent when they host the Bengals on Monday.
9. Buffalo Bills (6-6) – If Jake Elliott misses that 59-yard field goal – in a slopfest and with a cross wind – then no one is talking about “what’s wrong with the Bills” this week. They have the same issues they have had; Josh Allen turns the ball over too much and injuries and free agency sapped the back seven of high-end talent. But this is still one of the best teams in football, regardless of the win-loss record.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) – Sometimes the fans and the general public are right. In 58 games at the helm, the Matt Canada-led Steelers offense never gained over 400 yards. Not once! That is insane! First game without Canada: 421 total yards. Sometimes stubborn is good. Sometimes loyal is good. But sometimes being stubborn and loyal is just being stupid.
11. Houston Texans (6-5) – I know that C.J. Stroud’s improvisation has been a key part of his amazing rookie season. Stroud needs to learn to stay in the pocket and make quicker reads, though. Against top-end teams, he isn’t going to be able to just run around for six or seven seconds on every play. Houston is 0-7 ATS as a favorite over the last three years (0-4 ATS this year), and this week is just the 11th time they have been favored in their last 62 games (1-9 ATS).
12. Cleveland Browns (7-4) – Anyone that thinks that Joe Flacco is the answer at quarterback is an idiot. Flacco was a washed-up mess six years ago. Now he’s just a guy stealing a paycheck. If Flacco is announced as a starter in any game the rest of this season, it is an instant bet against the Browns.
13. Seattle Seahawks (6-5) – Seattle has spent the second-most money on defense of any team in the NFL this year (behind San Francisco) yet is No. 23 in total defense, No. 22 against the pass, No. 21 against the run and No. 22 in points allowed. Not great. Seattle has gotten bombed by the other two top-tier teams they have faced this season, losing to San Francisco and Baltimore by a combined 68-16 score.
14. Indianapolis Colts (6-5) – Wow, did Gardner Minshew do absolutely everything he could to keep the Bucs in that game last week. He had only one interception on the stat sheet last week but should’ve had at least two more. If this team is going to continue its current surge (three straight wins), he needs to tighten up. Minshew’s eight touchdown passes are the fewest of any starting quarterback in the NFL this season.
15. Denver Broncos (6-5) – Denver’s defense has undergone as big of an in-season turnaround as I can remember from any defense in the past decade. Since allowing 164 points during a four-week stretch from Week 2-5, Denver has yielded just 89 points during its last six games. They have now won five straight, and their last four wins have all come against teams that were .500 or better at the time.
16. Minnesota Vikings (6-6) – Ask yourself this: does Justin Jefferson make a difference in Josh Dobbs’ four-interception performance on Monday against Chicago? Jefferson, who is definitely thinking about his next contract more than he is winning games, has not played since Oct. 8. He should be back and 100 percent after this week’s bye.
17. Atlanta Falcons (5-6) – There is no way that I trust Desmond Ridder and the Falcons – a team that has lost to Josh Dobbs, Will Levis, and the Cardinals – as a road favorite against anyone. I don’t care if the Falcons are facing Tim Boyle this week. They lost to Levis! And Dobbs, who had only been with the Vikings for five days! And to Kyler Murray in Murray’s first game in 11 months! Look for more Cordarrelle Patterson on offense. His physicality really gave Atlanta a spark last week.
18. Los Angeles Rams (5-6) – If you are looking for some daily prop angles to play, I think betting against Cooper Kupp (receptions ‘under’ and receiving yards ‘under’) will be a profitable angle over L.A.’s last six games. He isn’t healthy, his target share is down, the Rams offense has shifted away from him, and he has some bad matchups the next five weeks. Take the ‘under’.
19. New Orleans Saints (5-6) – What else is there to say about this group of losers? This is a heartless, gutless, leaderless team. They are catching 4.5 points at home this week against a sagging Lions group. Not long ago, the Saints as a home underdog would’ve been either A) unthinkable or B) an automatic wager. Now you take the points with these clowns at your own risk.
20. Green Bay Packers (5-6) – I have been saying since the beginning of the season: I think Jordan Love is going to be perfectly fine. He’s not great. He’s not a world-beater. But he won’t be the reason Green Bay is losing games. He still has too many interceptions (remember he’s a first-year starter), but Love is starting to show enough poise, accuracy and improvisation to make me think this team could be a tough out down the stretch.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) – Forget the final score: the Bengals should’ve lost by three touchdowns last Sunday. If these guys get run over in Jacksonville on Monday Night Football, I think they will shift into mail-it-in mode for the rest of December.
22. Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) – Everything was set up for the putrid Chargers to sneak through the backdoor in their game against the Ravens last Sunday – until that back-breaking touchdown allowed to Zay Flowers with 1:36 to play. The Chargers are now 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall and are 0-7 SU and ATS against the Patriots dating back to 2010.
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) – Baker Mayfield is the least of the problems going on in Tampa right now. And the one positive takeaway from this lost season may be that Tampa realizes that Mayfield could be a solid bridge quarterback through the next few years of rebuilding. The Bucs are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games against the Panthers. And if they can’t beat a one-win team with no head coach and no offensive coordinator, while playing at home, then Todd Bowles doesn’t need to show up for work on Monday.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) – How does an interim coach keep his players on the straight and narrow during their bye week in Vegas? It has to be especially tough when the team’s playoff hopes are all but finished. Not surprisingly, the Raiders are 1-2 ATS in their three post-bye week games since moving to Vegas. The one win came at home against a pathetic Houston team last year in a game the Raiders were losing 20-17 entering the fourth quarter. (They won 38-20.)
25. Washington Commanders (4-8) – Jack Del Rio got the axe. His departure isn’t going to make things any better on that side of the ball, though. Washington held on to allow just 20 points through three quarters against Dallas before the levy broke and the Cowboys rung up 25 in the fourth. That hardly had anything to do with Del Rio. That was just talent disparity. And what did Washington expect after it traded away two Pro Bowl defensive linemen in Montez Sweat and Chase Young? Washington has allowed 105 points in its last three games and surrendered 29 or more points in seven of their last 10.
26. New York Jets (5-7) – Enough bad things have been written about the Jets offense since their latest embarrassment. No need to pile on here. The Jets are 2-8 ATS after a loss and 1-7 ATS against a team with a losing record.
27. Tennessee Titans (4-7) – I’m not going to get too excited about a win over Carolina. The Titans mustered only 264 total yards and didn’t score in the second half of that win. The Titans have dominated the Colts lately, though, going 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings.
28. Chicago Bears (4-8) – Montez Sweat has had an amazing impact on the Bears defense. He has 2.5 sacks, and the Bears are 4-0 ATS since he joined the team. If you discount the last five minutes of the Detroit meltdown, Chicago has allowed just 37 points over its last three games (two of which were on the road). Matt Eberflus was extremely lucky that Chicago pulled out that win on MNF – a game they completely dominated and shouldn’t have been close – because back-to-back fourth quarter failures might have been a bridge too far.
29. New York Giants (4-8) – That’s how much I don’t trust the Giants: I couldn’t even bring myself to bet on them as home underdogs against the pathetic Patriots. The Giants have a bye week to enjoy their two-game winning streak. They should enjoy them. They will likely be their last two wins of the season.
30. New England Patriots (2-9) – Just in case you haven’t been, we have to bet against the Patriots every single week down the stretch. They may cover one or two more numbers, but this team isn’t competitive at all. The Patriots are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog and 1-7 ATS at home.
31. Arizona Cardinals (2-10) – The Cardinals are 1-9 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC opponents. The weather in Pittsburgh this week is supposed to be rainy and windy, but that shouldn’t have much of an impact on Arizona’s run-based offensive attack. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 28.2 points per game over their last nine games.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-10) – Let me be the eight millionth person to point out that David Tepper has absolutely no idea what he is doing and is the biggest impediment to Carolina laying any type of foundation. I know a few weeks ago I suggested that we embrace that teams who fire their coach midseason become automatic bets in their next game. Carolina didn’t just ditch its head coach, though, and I don’t think the players had any beef with Frank Reich. Further, this is the third consecutive year in which a first-year coach didn’t even survive the entire season.
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