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2025 Atlanta Falcons Season Win Total Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 8/8/2025

Atlanta Falcons season win total picks Michael Penix

Maybe the 28-3 Super Bowl collapse really did just break this franchise.

Has there been a more maddening team in the NFL over the last several years than the Atlanta Falcons? Despite being perpetually predicted to be a player in the NFC South – which is in a constant battle with its AFC brethren for the worst division in the NFL – the Falcons are routine underachievers.

The Falcons have had seven straight losing seasons. Atlanta has gone just 1-6 against its Vegas season win total over the past seven years. The Falcons are just 11-23 against the spread over the last two seasons and a dreadful 46-70 (39.7%) against the number since the start of the 2018 campaign.

That’s seven straight years of suck.

Yet, here we are. Tampa Bay is the favorite to win a fifth straight NFC South title. But the Falcons, who have been favored to win the South three times in the past seven seasons, are once again alleged to be Tampa’s top challenger.

How much more failure do we have to endure from this group before their expectations settle in where they belong, with the Falcons being treated as kind of the East Coast Arizona Cardinals?

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ATLANTA FALCONS 2025 OFFENSE

The Falcons have finished with a negative turnover differential for four straight seasons. They were -6 last year and are -28 over the last four seasons. If the offense wants to start somewhere, taking care of the ball would be a great start.

I didn’t see enough of Michael Penix to have any realistic expectations for him heading into 2025. I do like that he was able to sit and learn from Kirk Cousins before logging three late season starts. This will still be his first year as The Guy, though, and I’m expecting a roller coaster ride from someone I wasn’t that high on coming out of college.

Bijan Robinson is awesome. And my only hope for him is a Saquon-esque escape at the end of his rookie deal. Drake London is also the real deal and should prepare himself to face nothing but quadruple teams now that Darnell Mooney is hurt in training camp.

Atlanta is the rare team that has sucked despite routinely fielding a Top 10 offensive line. The Falcons lost center Drew Dahlman but still have cornerstone players like Jake Matthews, Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary up front. They led the way for an attack that was No. 6 in total yards and No. 5 in passing offense last year.

ATLANTA FALCONS 2025 DEFENSE

Atlanta’s inability to rush the passer has been a running joke for the better part of the last 20 years. They’ve never managed to top 50 combined sacks in a season. They have averaged 29 sacks per season over the last 11 years and have failed to average at least two sacks per game in five of the last six seasons.

The Falcons used two first round picks on rookie pass rushers (Jalon Walker and James Pearce) in a desperate, flailing attempt to make it look like the front office finally realized there was a problem.

Atlanta will need their young pass rushers, along with free agent pickup Leonard Floyd, to contribute immediately. If not, Atlanta’s shaky secondary may be exploited again. The Falcons were No. 23 in total defense, No. 22 against the pass and No. 31 on third downs last year.

Head coach Raheem Morris is known as a “defensive guy”. However, Morris has never been the head coach or a coordinator for a team with a defense that finished in the top half of the season in total defense. He’s had three defenses finish No. 27 or worse in his eight-year career.

Further, Morris has had one defense (Tampa Bay in 2010) finish in the Top 10 in points allowed. His average defense has finished No. 23 in total yards and No. 21 in scoring. And if we include his time as a position coach, Morris has been on the staff of a team with a Top 10 defense one time in 16 years. That was the 2017 Falcons, and Morris was the wide receivers coach and pass game coordinator – on offense.

ATLANTA FALCONS 2025 SCHEDULE

Sun, Sep 7        vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers                  1:00 p.m.

Sun, Sep 14     @ Minnesota Vikings (SNF)                8:20 p.m.

Sun, Sep 21     @ Carolina Panthers                              1:00 p.m.

Sun, Sep 28     vs Washington Commanders             1:00 p.m.

Week 5             BYE

Mon, Oct 13    vs Buffalo Bills (MNF)                           7:15 p.m.

Sun, Oct 19      @ San Francisco 49ers (SNF)             8:20 p.m.

Sun, Oct 26      vs Miami Dolphins                                  1:00 p.m.

Sun, Nov 2       @ New England Patriots                      1:00 p.m.

Sun, Nov 9       @ Indianapolis Colts (Berlin)            9:30 a.m.

Sun, Nov 16     vs Carolina Panthers                              1:00 p.m.

Sun, Nov 23     @ New Orleans Saints                           4:25 p.m.

Sun, Nov 30     @ New York Jets                                      1:00 p.m.

Sun, Dec 7        vs Seattle Seahawks                               1:00 p.m.

Thu, Dec 11     @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TNF)      8:15 p.m.

Sun, Dec 21     @ Arizona Cardinals                              4:05 p.m.

Mon, Dec 29    vs Los Angeles Rams (MNF)               8:15 p.m.

Sun, Jan 3/4    vs New Orleans Saints                          TBD

ATLANTA FALCONS 2025 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

Maybe the Falcons just suck?

Instead of waiting for this team to “reach its potential” maybe we just need to embrace the fact that Atlanta just isn’t any good. Matt Ryan went ‘over’ his Vegas season win total in seven of his first 10 years between 2008-2017. Before and after that? Atlanta is 1-9 against Vegas since 2005.

We don’t know if Penix is any good. And Morris hasn’t done anything in his career to make me think that he can fix this defense. Yes, the Falcons have another relatively easy schedule because their division stinks. But they’ve had bigger flops against easier slates than this.

Atlanta needs to get off to a hot start. They have an early bye and if they don’t have at least two wins before their Week 7 trip to San Francisco then they are in trouble. That game begins a stretch of five road games in seven weeks, including a trip to Berlin with no bye week after their international trip.

The Falcons play back-to-back road games four times and they have six standalone games, meaning they could be in a lot of letdown situations.

I don’t love the 7.5 number that’s floating out there. I would pay the juice at a book like DK and get the ‘under’ 8.5. Regardless, I don’t think that this team can hold up for 17 games and I don’t think they are going to be a threat to anyone in the NFC.

Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,830 three-month run. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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