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2025 Jacksonville Jaguars Season Win Total Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 8/8/2025

Jacksonville Jaguars season win total picks Trevor Lawrence

Do you remember just two years ago the Jacksonville Jaguars entered the 2023 season with a Vegas season win total of 10.5 and realistic Super Bowl expectations?

It’s true! That really happened! Peter King predicted the Jaguars to the No. 1 seed in the AFC that year. Pete Prisco had them as a legit Super Bowl threat. Other semi-serious media bobbleheads – the same people that crowned Trevor Lawrence as a “generational talent” – had these chuckleheads right below the Bills and Chiefs in the AFC hierarchy.

How’d that work out?

Jacksonville crashed out at 4-13 last season, making their 9-8 campaigns in 2022 and 2023 look like a mirage. Last year was the 11th time in 14 years that Jacksonville has finished with a losing record and at least 10 losses. Last season was the third time in the past five years that the Jaguars have won four or fewer games.

From 2018-2024 the Jaguars have 37-70 straight up. They have only been to the playoffs four times this century. And the Jaguars have gone ‘over’ their Las Vegas season win total just two times in the past 14 years.

Liam Coen parlayed one good season at offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay into the job as Jacksonville’s new head coach. Coen tapped 29-year-old Grant Udinski to be the new offensive coordinator and between the two of them, Coen and Udinski have 10 total years of NFL “coaching” experience.

What could possibly go wrong?

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2025 OFFENSE

The bobblehead media is finally catching up to what I have been saying for years about Trevor Lawrence: “Maybe this guy just isn’t that good.”

I’m not ready to decry Lawrence as a “bust” or a total dud. However, I felt like he was crowned as a “franchise quarterback” way, way too early and I have serious doubts about a guy that is 22-38 in his career as a starter in the NFL. Lawrence is a questionable decision maker, his accuracy waffles from game-to-game, and he turns the ball over way too much. Other than that, he’s fine.

Lawrence tried to play through an injured shoulder last season and only made 10 starts. As a result, the Jaguars finished No. 25 in total offense and No. 26 in scoring. They haven’t finished higher than No. 10 in either category in any of Lawrence’s four years under center.

It is also put-up-or-shut-up time for Travis Etienne, who was supplanted as Jacksonville’s leading rusher last year by Tank Bigsby. Etienne has averaged fewer than 4.0 yards per carry each of the past two seasons and has seen his rushing yards drop each of the past two years.

The Jaguars invested heavily on the offensive line this offseason, paying four free agent linemen (two new starters) and using a third-round pick on guard Wyatt Milum. The Jaguars need to get better in the trenches if they are going anywhere.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2025 DEFENSE

Travis Hunter is going to be a bust.

I’m sorry. I don’t want it to happen. I’m not rooting for it to happen. But it’s going to happen and I want to be the first to stake my claim – which I’ve done on Doc’s Daily YouTube show several times – that Hunter isn’t going to be worth what the Jaguars gave up getting him.

Hunter isn’t going to be able to play enough snaps to make a major impact on both sides of the ball. He’s going to get hurt. And even if he doesn’t get hurt, he isn’t going to be able to hone his craft enough to be either a No. 1 receiver or a No. 1 corner. Even if he turns out to be a No. 3 at both positions, is that worth two No. 1 draft picks? Or should Jacksonville, I don’t know, used one first round pick this year on a receiver and then another first round pick next year on a corner?

Jacksonville’s defense sucked again in 2024, finishing No. 31 in total defense and No. 31 against the pass. The Bills hit them for 47 points, the Lions rung up 52, and the Jags allowed an average of 25.6 points per game.

The Jaguars suck on defense even though Travon Walker, DaVon Hamilton, Josh Allen-Hines, Devin Lloyd, Mason Smith, Tyson Campbell and several other players were all Top 75 picks, with most of them going in the first round.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2025 SCHEDULE

Sun, Sep 7        vs Carolina Panthers               1:00 p.m.

Sun, Sep 14     @ Cincinnati Bengals              1:00 p.m.

Sun, Sep 21     vs Houston Texans                   1:00 p.m.

Sun, Sep 28     @ San Francisco 49ers           4:05 p.m.

Mon, Oct 6       vs Kansas City Chiefs               8:15 p.m.

Sun, Oct 12      vs Seattle Seahawks                1:00 p.m.

Sun, Oct 19      vs L.A. Rams (London)            9:30 a.m.

Sun, Nov 2       @ Las Vegas Raiders               4:05 p.m.

Sun, Nov 9       @ Houston Texans                   1:00 p.m.

Sun, Nov 16     vs Los Angeles Chargers        1:00 p.m.

Sun, Nov 23     @ Arizona Cardinals               4:05 p.m.

Sun, Nov 30     @ Tennessee Titans                1:00 p.m.

Sun, Dec 7        vs Indianapolis Colts               1:00 p.m.

Sun, Dec 14     vs New York Jets                       1:00 p.m.

Sun, Dec 21     @ Denver Broncos                   4:05 p.m.

Sun, Dec 28     @ Indianapolis Colts               1:00 p.m.

Sun, Jan 3/4    vs Tennessee Titans               TBD

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2025 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

I really want to like the Jaguars this year. I do.

Jacksonville qualifies as a “Triple Pickle Team” for me. They missed their Vegas win total by five games last year. They finished 1.5 games below their Pythagorean win total. And they were -15 in turnovers last season while dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback.

The Jaguars also lost nine games by five points or less and four games by three points. (Albeit against one of the league’s easiest schedules.)

For a normal, functioning, competent organization the lights would be flashing that this is a team to buy in on heading into 2025.

It’s the Jaguars, though, and these guys routinely suck. I thought Coen was a weird hire. He is also the fourth coach in five years. And with a track record that includes Doug Marrone, Urban Meyer and Doug Pederson, Shadid Khan doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt.

I’m still going to trust the numbers a bit here. I like the ‘over’. I won’t be betting the ‘over’ because, as I mentioned, the Jaguars are losers. But if you’re asking me for a prediction I will err on some value with this group.

I don’t think it is a stretch to expect Jacksonville to go 3-3 in their division. If they can just pull three more wins in their crossover games against the AFC West and NFC West that gets us to six. Jacksonville also gets the Panthers and Jets at home. I see a clear path to eight wins and this team is just a couple upsets away from finding itself in the playoff mix.

Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,830 three-month run. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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