2021 AFC East Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Picks
The 2021 NFL season is almost upon us. Many teams have made big offseason moves, either through the draft, free agency or via trade. It’s shaping up to be an exciting season with what looks like fans fully in attendance in most stadiums. The AFC East has been dominated by the New England Patriots for the past 20 years. The division became a lot more interesting in 2020. With the departure of Tom Brady, the AFC East all of a sudden became anyone’s ball game.
We saw Josh Allen, the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, become what seems to be the ‘new man to beat’. Allen led the Bills last season to the most productive offense in the AFC with 501 points, second best in the NFL behind the Green Bay Packers. The AFC East also saw the likes of Tua Tagovailoa take over the reigns in Miami as the starting QB, and he showed flashes of excellence. Although a lot of questions marks surround Tua, he is an exciting dual threat quarterback with an outstanding defense behind him.
The debate of Bill Belichick vs. Tom Brady, and who was more valuable to the New England Patriots, was also solved last season. Belichick and the Patriots couldn’t seem to continue their greatness without Brady. The New York Jets were the same team we have come to expect lately, having another losing season, making that seven of their last eight seasons below .500.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Last Season Records:
Buffalo Bills 13-3
Miami Dolphins 10-6
New England Patriots 7-9
New York Jets 2-14
Heading into the 2021 NFL season, the AFC East odds to win the Division are as followed:
Note: I have taken the average of 11 of the most trusted sports betting platforms in the US
(Draft Kings, Fanduel, BetGM, Foxbet, Ceasers Sportsbook, Pointsbet, bet 365, Borgata Online, Unibet, SH, Resortscasino.com)
Super Bowl Odds:
Buffalo Bills: +1136
New England Patriots: +3263
Miami Dolphins: +3281
New York Jets: +12954
Buffalo Bills: Buffalo didn’t make big headlines with their transactions this offseason, but they firmed up an already solid core with signing key veterans. They were able to place John ‘Smoke’ Brown with the speedy veteran receiver Emmanuel Sanders and added a freaky 6-foot-7 Greg Rousseau via the draft (first round pick). The rookie hopes to make an impact as an edge defender. With an already explosive offense, look for the likes of RB Zack Moss to mature and play a bigger role in bringing a more balanced attack to the field this year. Winning the division is one of the safer bets in football this year, and I think Buffalo will have their eyes on beating the Kansas City Chiefs for first in the conference this year. This is a very safe pick but gives you very little return. I can’t see Buffalo losing the division, and the true battle may be for second place.
Buffalo Bills: -151
Notable Moves: Re-signed LB Matt Milano, Re-signed OT Daryl Williams, Re-signed OG Jon Feliciano, agreed to deal with Saints WR Emmanuel Sanders, Added TE Jacob Hollister, Added QB Mitch Trubisky.
Key Departures: WR John Brown, DT Quinton Jefferson, TE Tyler Kroft, WR/KR Andre Roberts
Strength of schedule 2020 opponent win percentage: 23rd .478 (130-142)
Miami Dolphins: Miami had a very active offseason; they have given Tua one of the best receiving corps in the league and have made some key replacements on the defensive end. The wild card will be if Tagovailoa can step a step forward this year in consistency and turn into the powerful dual threat quarterback he was in college. Look for Miami to steal games on the defensive side of the ball this year, and the offense has a massive ceiling. They are one of the most intriguing teams heading into 2021, and in my opinion I think they will shock a lot of betters.
Miami Dolphins: +335
Key Additions/ Re-signing: WR Will Fuller V, QB Jacoby Brisset, RB Malcom Brown, CB Justin Coleman, DT Adam Butler, LB Vince Biegel, LB Benardrick Mckinney, WR Jaylen Waddle (Via Draft)
Key Subtractions: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, OL Ted Karras, DT Davon Godchaux, LB Kyle Van Noy, LB Shaq Lawson, OT Julie’n Davenport
Strength of schedule 2020 opponent win percentage: 27th 4.71 (128-144)
New England Patriots: The Patriots absolutely loaded up this offseason on both ends of the football, having one of the most productive and successful offseasons in the NFL. Look for a notorious Top 10 defense to get back to their standard with the transactions made during the offseason. The defense was in the bottom third of the league last year, which is unlike the Patriots. Belichick will be coming into the season with a chip on his shoulder after not getting the same respect shown as in years passed. The quarterback controversy between Mac Jones and Cam Newton should be an interesting storyline to follow. It could be the pressure Newton needs to perform at his pre-2019 form. With that being stated, I can see the Patriots being on the bubble of a playoff picture this year. It will really come down to the quarterbacks’ performance.
New England Patriots: +350
Key Additions/ Re-signing: TE Jonnu Smith, Edge Matthew Judon, DT Davon Godchaux, DB Jalen Mills, TE Hunter Henry, WR Kendrick Bourne, WR Nelson Agholor, OL Ted Karras, LB Kyle Van Noy, QB Cam Newton, C David Andrews, RB James White, DL Lawrence Guy, OT Trent Brown, QB Mac Jones (Via Draft)
Key Departures: OL Joe Thuney, DT Adam Butler, S Patrick Chung, WR Julian Edelman, RT Marcus Cannon
Strength of schedule 2020 opponent win percentage: T19th .489 (133-139)
New York Jets: After a few weeks of preseason Zach Wilson has met the eye appeal for many, and it looks like the Jets could finally have a franchise quarterback that the organization so desperately needs. The Jets have many favorable matchups with the Broncos, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles and Falcons all on the schedule, which can give Jets fans some hope. Robert Saleh has a lot of young pieces to work with, and the franchise is definitely trending upwards.
New York Jets: +12954
Key Additions/ Re-signing: Edge Carl Lawson, WR Corey Davis, LB Jarrad Davis, RB Tevin Coleman, DT Sheldon Rankins, WR Keelan Cole, DB Lamarcus Joyner, TE Tyler Kroft, S Marcus Maye, WR Elijah Moore (Via Draft). QB Zach Wilson (Via Draft), OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (Via Draft)
Strength of schedule 2020 opponent win percentage: T19th .489 (132-138-2)
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