Green Bay Packers Predictions for Playoffs and Best Bets with Super Bowl Odds
Green Bay Packers won three straight games to sneak into the postseason and are surprisingly competitive despite the absence of long-time QB Aaron Rodgers. Jordan Love had a stellar playoff debut, as the Packers swatted aside the Dallas Cowboys, 48-32. Love threw for 272 yards with 3 touchdowns and no turnovers, allowing the Packers to jump out to a 27-0 lead late in the second quarter. The Packers were the youngest NFL team to win a playoff game, with an average roster age of 25 years and 214 days, and they will be absolutely fearless when they travel to San Francisco on Saturday. There is plenty of belief in Green Bay that they have a chance to upset the Super Bowl favorites. And with some juicy betting odds available, can we justify a gamble on the Packers? Let’s dive in.
Odds to win the divisional round: +375
Odds to win the NFC: +900
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +2500
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Team Breakdown
This Packers offense is reliant on one man, and that’s Love. The first-round draft pick spent his first two seasons in the league backing up Rodgers, before being given the reins to start the campaign. Green Bay has had just Brett Farve and Rodgers as their starting quarterbacks since 1992. So, needless to say Love has massive shoes to fill. And he’s done just that. He spent countless hours soaking up the information Rodgers gave him in the valuable time he spent backing him up, and his poise in the pocket is unheard of for a quarterback with his experience. His 32 passing touchdowns in the regular season was the second highest total in the league, and he added to that tally with another strong showing in Dallas last week. Love’s accuracy and awareness in the pocket has allowed Green Bay to stay ahead of the sticks, as they finished with the 5th best 3rd down percentage in the league, only trailing the Bills, Cowboys, 49ers, and Eagles.
Their team is bursting with young talent, with Romeo Doubs being the most experienced starting receiver, coming in at just 24 years of age. Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed have been fearless downfield and consistently are able to come up with big plays for their quarterback. While they aren't household names, the trio of pass catchers for Green Bay are capable of making big catches when the Packers need it most. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have formed a devastating 1-2 punch in the backfield, allowing the Packers to keep defenses honest and prioritize stopping the run. The loss of LT David Bakhtiari loomed large, but the quick release from Love, and quality pass protection from an experienced offensive line, has allowed the Packers to take the third fewest sacks, averaging just 1.8 sacks against per game.
On defense, the Packers are built from the secondary forward, with the priority of limiting balls over the top emphasized. Jaire Alexander may have been making headlines for his pregame antics, but his status as Pro Bowl alternate is well deserved, as he has been consistently shutting down the opposition's best pass catcher. The linebacker position can be critical to a team's success, as a high IQ player in the middle of the field capable of making on-ball plays can lead to valuable turnovers. Rashan Gray has arguably been the Packers best defensive player, leading the team with 9 sacks, despite playing linebacker. He was one of 5 Packers selected as Pro Bowl alternates, with only one of them being offensive players. Kenny Clark was another player to fit that category, as the 28-year-old shattered his career high in sacks, posting 7.5 sacks in his 8th NFL season. Overall, the Packers defense is a young and hungry group that will not hesitate to make plays on the football. They were dominant on both sides of the ball against Dallas. And if they come in with a ‘nothing to lose’ attitude once again, they will have a shot at upsetting the 49ers, and staying in the running for a wide-open NFC race.
Path to the Super Bowl
The Packers toughest test will come in the divisional round, as they square off against the San Francisco 49ers in sunny California. San Francisco has been the Super Bowl favorite for almost the entire season, and a rock bottom +175 price on their Super Bowl triumph is almost hard to believe. The 49ers are dominant on both sides of the ball, posting a top 5 defense and offense. Their plethora of offensive weapons will challenge a possibly overaggressive Packers secondary, and they have the speed and open field abilities to make a man miss and take it to the house.
If the Packers can get past the 49ers, they will head on the road to either Detroit or Tampa Bay. The Lions got their first playoff win since 1992 in the Wild Card round and will be full of confidence they can make a Super Bowl appearance against Green Bay. They move the ball well, have a strong defense, and Dam Campbell is not afraid to make the necessary aggressive play calls to succeed. Tampa Bay still has plenty of players from their Super Bowl run with Tom Brady, as an experienced set of receivers, and a reliable offensive line, has allowed Baker Mayfield to run a quality offense. The Packers will likely be road underdogs against either franchise., And, if they make the Super Bowl, it will be refreshing to play on a neutral field after 3 straight playoff road games.
Best Bets
There are two ways we can attack the Packers odds. First is them to advance past the 49ers at +375 odds. Green Bay is a fearless team and could possibly be the worst opponent for the 49ers. While they may lack the proven talent compared to the Eagles or Cowboys, their young stars have proven they can succeed when the pressure is on. A nearly 4-1 payout on a single playoff game, for a team that was able to rest their starters for a majority of the second half against Dallas, feels too good to be true. Their NFC odds at +900 are tempting, but I’ll be passing on that and instead jumping straight to the Super Bowl. The +2500 odds on offer could prove to be a solid investment. If the Packers can navigate the pair of road games still on the horizon, they could have a solid chance against the AFC juggernaut that emerges as their opponent. In all honesty, I’d put a majority of your Packers allocated bankroll on the straight moneyline against San Francisco, with the intention of setting aside some profit, and possibly putting some of the winnings on what will likely be +900 odds heading into the conference championships. It’s only more effective to go straight to a Super Bowl wager if you expect the Packers odds to be +500 or shorter after beating the 49ers, which I don’t think will be the case.
Best Bet: Green Bay Packers ML +375 against the 49ers, with the intention of reinvesting at a better Super Bowl price before the NFC Championship.
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