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2025 New Orleans Saints Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Season Win Totals

by Spencer Toth - 8/12/2025

New Orleans Saints predictions Tyler Shough

The optimism around the Saints is minimal heading into this season. New Orleans was forced to move on from Derek Carr at quarterback after he retired due to ongoing injuries, and the Saints have missed the playoffs in four straight seasons. However, owner Gayle Brunson refuses to commit to a rebuild, and the Saints have elected to try and win now while delaying their big cap hits to future seasons. Will that be a strategy that pays off for New Orleans, or will it be another lost season with a grim future ahead for the Saints?

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Offseason Recap

The Saints were forced to alter their offseason plans when Derek Carr elected to retire due to ongoing injury concerns. Carr was expected to be the starter in New Orleans for the foreseeable future, but it is now a wide-open competition for the Week 1 starting role. The Saints drafted Spencer Rattler last year in the fifth round, but he didn’t thrive during his seven games played last year. The Saints still had Jake Haener on the roster, but the big offseason move was drafting Tyler Shough with the 40th overall pick. Shough turns 26 years old next month and gives the Saints the best chance to win right now. He is experienced, has shown good instincts in the pocket, and has a high floor for a second-round draft pick. Shough is unlikely to go on to win MVP in the coming years, but he is serviceable and is set for a lengthy career as a low-tier starter or high-tier backup. 

The Saints had many other issues aside from quarterback going into this season, and altered their roster quite a bit. Brandin Cooks was their big skill position signing at wide receiver, and he joins a room with Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed for company. Cooks dealt with injuries last season, but he proved he is a reliable WR2 or WR3 when healthy. The departure of Marquez Valdes-Scantling makes this more of a replacement than an upgrade, but Cooks has the higher ceiling for a team that is desperate for a strong WR2. 

On defense, the Saints made a few impactful signings in the secondary in hopes of shoring up their abysmal pass defense. Isaac Yiadom returns to New Orleans after spending last year with the 49ers, but the big signing is Justin Reid from Kansas City. Reid is a truly elite safety both against the run and the pass, and he will give the Saints the solidity they have been craving. Reid is the 17th highest paid safety with his $10.5 million AAV, but that is a price that may age nicely if he can replicate his dominance with the Chiefs. 

Season Expectations

The Saints front office has high hopes for the upcoming season after ruining their financial future to try and compete this year. While the oddsmakers and general public do not agree, there are a few reasons for optimism. First and foremost, New Orleans is in the woeful NFC South, which could allow them to sneak into the playoffs with a .500 record. A soft schedule could allow the young prospects in New Orleans to make an impact in the early stages. Secondly, while the Saints' worst record in 20 years (5-12) was certainly ugly, the extensive list of injuries at crucial positions was partially to blame. Alvin Kamara was all alone on offense in the backfield, and a revolving door at quarterback and the offensive line didn’t help his production. Shough is the best bet for New Orleans at quarterback if they hope to compete this year. The Louisville quarterback is already entering his physical prime, and his play will likely determine the trajectory of this squad. If Shough can have a productive rookie season, Gayle Brunson’s plan to win now may just turn out to be a fruitful one. 

New Orleans Saints Schedule Breakdown

The Saints find themselves in arguably the worst division in football, which could allow them to pick up some easy wins. Their opponent’s winning percentages last year were just .415, giving them the second-easiest schedule in the NFL this season. The Falcons, Buccaneers, and Panthers are all expected to finish .500 or lower next season, and the Saints have the privilege of six winnable division games on their schedule. They also face off against the NFC West and AFC South. The Buffalo Bills are certainly daunting, but the rest of the AFC South is on the same abysmal level as New Orleans. Finally, as a reward for coming last in the division, New Orleans gets the Bears, Giants, and Titans to round out their schedule. 

New Orleans Saints Odds

The New Orleans Saints have the longest Super Bowl odds at +40000 going into the season. However, there is always a chance for a miracle, as we saw with a stunning Commanders playoff run last season at +15000… but let’s not count on it. The Saints have +850 odds to make the playoffs and +1000 odds to win the NFC South. Both of those are still long shots, but we can target their win total at a few nice prices. The Saints have +145 odds to finish Under 4.5 wins and +130 odds to finish Over 5.5 wins, meaning the oddsmakers think a 5-12 record is fair. We always want to chase the plus money odds with season-long futures, so do not hesitate to pull the trigger one way or the other. 

2025 New Orleans Saints Season Predictions and Best Bets

I am not calling for a Super Bowl in New Orleans, but the Saints will be marginally better than the oddsmakers are giving them credit. Their sensationally bad strength of schedule features teams that struggled last year and aren’t expected to get a whole lot better. New Orleans is still an NFL team filled with professionals, and they will find a way to sneak away with a handful of wins. The first pick to take is Over 5.5 wins at +130. New Orleans will have close to 50/50 odds against half their opponents this year, and is a few upsets away from a .500 record. This offers upside, but my favorite Saints pick for the 2025 season is for them to finish 3rd in the NFC South at +240 odds. One of the reasons the Saints have an easy schedule is that the rest of their division sucks. The Falcons are handcuffed by Kirk Cousins’ contract, the Buccaneers are aging, and we haven’t seen enough from Bryce Young to trust the Panthers. New Orleans is not going to storm to the playoffs, but they are good enough to take advantage of a few missteps to avoid last place. Additionally, this is exactly the kind of odds you must look for with these kinds of futures. The Saints are still bad, but they won’t be quite as bad as people think this season. 

Pick: New Orleans Saints Over 5.5 Wins +130

Top Pick: New Orleans Saints to Finish 3rd in the NFC South +240

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