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2025 Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Season Win Totals

by Ryan Cobbett - 8/11/2025

Pittsburgh Steelers predictions Aaron Rodgers

The Pittsburgh Steelers started last season 10-3, with key wins against Baltimore and Washington in back-to-back weeks. Unfortunately for them, their season quickly flipped as they lost their last four regular season games and finished with a -52-point differential in that span. After finishing second in the AFC North with a 10-7 record, the Steelers would see a quick exit in the playoffs as they lost to the Ravens by 14 in the Wild Card Round. Their +33-point differential was the lowest among all playoff teams from last season.

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The offense really held the team back last season. The Steelers finished the regular season ranked 23rd in YPG while ranking in the middle of the league in PPG. One of the biggest factors that kept the Steelers in the win column was their +16 turnover differential which was the second highest mark in the NFL. The quarterback situation was not ideal for Pittsburgh. They started the year off with Justin Fields who was then replaced by Russell Wilson by Week 7. Wilson finished with 2,482 passing yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. Fields finished with 1,106 passing yards with five touchdowns and one interception while also adding another five touchdowns and 289 yards on the ground. Najee Harris led the rushing attack as he finished with 1,043 yards and six touchdowns. Jaylen Warren had a decent year backing up Harris as he finished with 511 rushing yards and 310 receiving yards. George Pickens led the receiver’s room with 900 receiving yards on 103 targets last season. He pulled in three touchdowns and recorded 17 plays of 20 or more yards. Pat Freiermuth led the team with seven receiving touchdowns while Calvin Austin III finished second on the team with four.

The Steelers’ defense allowed just 326.7 YPG which ranked 12th in the league, and they held their opponents to just 20.4 PPG. The strength of the defense was its ability to stop the run as they were just one of seven teams to keep their opponents to less than 100 rushing YPG. Patrick Queen led the defense with 129 tackles while he also recorded six TFL’s, one sack, seven pass deflections, and two forced fumbles. DeShon Elliott finished second on the team with 108 tackles while also forcing two fumbles, six pass deflections, and one interception. T.J. Watt led the team with 11.5 sacks and 19 TFL’s. Cameron Heyward also had an incredible season as he finished with 71 tackles, eight sacks, 12 TFL’s, and 11 pass deflections.

Key Additions/Losses

The Steelers will look like a new team on offense this season. They emptied out their entire quarterback room with Wilson joining the Giants, Fields joining the Jets, and Kyle Allen joining the Lions. Harris has moved on to the west coast and will be in a Chargers uniform this season while Pickens was traded to the Cowboys over the offseason. James Daniels and Dan Moore Jr.’s departure has left holes in the offensive line as well. On defense, the Steelers lost Larry Ogunjobi to Buffalo, Elandon Roberts to the Raiders, while they traded Minkah Fitzpatrick.

To rebuild the quarterback room, the Steelers brought in Aaron Rodgers and Mason Rudolph. They brought in Kenneth Gainwell to support the run game while the Steelers also acquired DK Metcalf in a trade. In the Fitzpatrick trade, Pittsburgh acquired Jonnu Smith and Jalen Ramsey. Other significant offseason additions include Robert Woods on offense and Malik Harrison and Darius Slay on defense.

New Kids on the Block

Though they had just seven selections, the Steelers had an incredible draft class. They drafted Derrick Harmon out of Oregon who should join Watt, Harrison, and Heyward to form one of the best defensive lines in the league. They also drafted Kaleb Johnson out of Iowa in the third round which could be an absolute steal if Johnson’s tough running ability fits into the Steelers scheme. The rest of their draft class is as follows: Jack Sawyer (Edge, Ohio State), Yahya Black (DT, Iowa), Will Howard (QB, Ohio State), Carson Bruener (LB, Washington), and Donte Kent (CB, Central Michigan).

X-Factors

Aaron Rodgers- Rodgers is giving Pittsburgh one season. If he can stay healthy and be a shell of himself, the Steelers should once again return to the playoffs. However, any injuries to Rodgers could derail the Steelers season. There isn’t a lot to love around Rodgers as the run game could be ineffective which could put more pressure on the 41-year-old quarterback. Pittsburgh’s defense will be elite, but Rodgers will need to give them a break and put some points on the board this season.

DK Metcalf- Metcalf spent his Seattle career with an incredible running mate in Tyler Lockett. Even with another elite receiver competing for targets, Metcalf has yet to record less than 900 yards in a season. He will now be the favorite target for Rodgers and will need to have a big season in order to take the Steelers to the playoffs. Any injury to Metcalf and the offense will be the worst in the league, if it isn’t already.

Pittsburgh Steelers Notable Odds

Super Bowl Winner: +4400

AFC Champion: +2000

AFC North Winner: +500

NFL MVP- Aaron Rodgers: +7500

AP Defensive Player of the Year- T.J. Watt: +1000

AP Defensive Rookie of the Year- Derrick Harmon: +4000

Pittsburgh Steelers Schedule Breakdown

Predicted Win Total: 8.5 Games

I like the over on paper. There are six wins on the schedule for Pittsburgh. They open the season with two relatively easy games against the Jets and the Seahawks, and they have some favorable matchups in Week six against Cleveland, Week 9 against Indianapolis, Week 15 against Miami, and Week 17 against Cleveland. The only obvious losses are their Week’s 13 and 14 matchups against Buffalo and at Baltimore and then their Week 16 game at Detroit. That leaves eight toss up games where Pittsburgh would need to just go 3-5 in order to hit the over. Most bettors would love to have five mulligans, but it comes down to how much trust you have in the performance of a 41-year-old quarterback. The over looks appealing, but the Steelers will be the Iowa Hawkeyes of the NFL this season and they cannot afford to lose Rodgers to an injury.

2025 Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions

I like the over on the win total, though I would be hesitant to make a play with Rodgers as the only option at quarterback. The defense is elite and may be one of the best in the league. They will shut down the run game again this season as they have the best group in the trenches on defense. I like Watt as a solid choice to be the AP Defensive Player of the Year at +1000 and I think Harmon at +4000 to win AP Defensive Rookie of the Year is worth some couch change as the opposing offensive lines will have their hands full with Watt and Heyward which could open up some room for the rookie to make some big plays. Pittsburgh will rely on the defense to keep the score low, but they should find their way into the playoffs once again this season.

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