NFL Predictions and Picks: Giants vs. Colts Betting Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 9/19/2010
This is a game that has the media in full-frenzy. After all, it has the perfect media-friendly storyline - two Super Bowl winning quarterbacks who just happen to be brothers meeting up for just the second time in their careers. What more could you want? Well, personally I would rather watch two teams without so many questions coming out of their openers. And I would rather not watch Eli Manning at any point, but I might be the exception.
The opener for Eli and the Giants was a rocky but ultimately successful road. They beat Carolina, and Manning completed 2/3 of his passes and threw three TDs. The problem, though, was that he also threw three interceptions, and at least two of them looked like what a rookie does in their first game, not what a veteran like Manning does. The running game was similarly mixed - Ahmad Bradshaw led the way with a respectable 76 yards and a TD, but he also lost a fumble. The brightest point for the Giants on offense was that all three TD passes were to Hakeem Nicks, the second year player out of North Carolina. Combine that with a strong game from Mario Manningham, and the Giants have a young receiving corps that could be very dangerous.
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If I was a Colts fan I would be very concerned about what I saw in the opening week. Luckily, I am a long way from being a Colts fan. Manning did what he’s supposed to do - he completed more than 70 percent of his passes for 433 yards and three touchdowns. He was about as good as he can be. Unfortunately, the rest of the team didn’t really carry their weight and they lost by 10 as slight road favorites in Houston. The running game contributed just 44 yards, though Joseph Addai was only given 10 attempts. More significantly, though, the defense was brutal. They did a good job of limiting Matt Schaub through the air, but Schaub didn’t really need to throw it much because they could run pretty much at will. Arian Foster shredded the Indy offensive line for 231 yards, and Steve Slaton was solid in limited action as well.
Indy’s defense will need to be significantly better this time around, and they’ll have to do it without defensive spark plug Bob Sanders - the league’s least durable player lasted just 10 snaps before going down with what could be a season-ending injury. The Colts were favored by many to win the Super Bowl, but this defense did not look like a Super Bowl winner.
Giants vs. Colts Betting Odds and Line Movement
This NFL line opened at 5.5, and has been on the move since. It has fallen as low as 4.5 and climbed as high as 6, with 5 as the most common available number right now. The Colts are definitely the more popular team from the public perspective generally, and that’s definitely the case in this one - the Colts have drawn nearly three-quarters of all bets. The line opened at 47 and is showing slight upward momentum - it’s now available at 48.5 in several spots.
Giants vs. Colts Betting Trends
The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on FieldTurf.
New York is a very solid 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games.
Bad rushing games don’t bother the Colts - they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games that have followed games with less than 90 rushing yards.
The Giants have gone ‘over’ in their last six games, while the Colts have gone ‘over’ in six of their last eight.
NFL Predictions: Giants vs. Colts Picks
Big brother won and covered the first time the two teams met - in a game that went ‘under’ the total by just half a point. Eli will be looking to even up the Manning Bowl, but I just don’t like his chances of doing so. For starters, Peyton is just a much, much, much better quarterback. As much as I like the Giants receiving corps, Peyton’s relationship with his is clearly solid and he feels comfortable with them. Peyton is by far the smarter player, and he’ll get more out of his team offensively. The defense for Indianapolis is obviously a concern, but the Colts have built their success in recent years on their ability to adjust when adjustments are needed. The loss of Sanders is another concern, but this team is definitely used to operating without Sanders by now. The Colts are also at home for this one, and that’s a big edge for them - they love their stadium. I think the Colts will win this one fairly handily.
The total is high - 48 is the highest total of the week. These teams both go ‘over’ regularly, and the books are very aware of that, and of the public’s tendency to back the ‘over’. That’s means that the total is probably higher than it should be. Still, I don’t see a lot of value on the ‘under’. I’d favor the ‘over,’ but I don’t love either side. At 45 I would be enthusiastically ‘over’.
Jason Sharpe is in his first season releasing his expert football picks at Doc’s Sports, but in now way is he new to the game – he has been beating the Las Vegas bookies for years as a professional sports bettor in Sin City. He has become known by those bookies for his college football and NFL handicapping capabilities, and now he wants to share these with Doc’s Sports. He expects to beat the majority of NFL point spreads this season and he plans on dominating the college football betting landscape as well!
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