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Monday Night Football Predictions: Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles Odds & Picks


by - 10/19/2017

Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles

Are the fates conspiring for the Philadelphia Eagles to reach the third Super Bowl in franchise history and perhaps win their first?

I've talked plenty about Aaron Rodgers' broken collarbone this week, but that also could affect the Eagles. Philadelphia (5-1) was the NFC's only five-win team entering Week 7 and has become the +425 favorite at Bovada to win the conference title for the first time since that Donovan McNabb/Terrell Owens club in 2004. Green Bay had been the conference favorite but is now +1000. I believe the Packers would have been the NFC's top seed in the playoffs, but now that's Philly's to lose (it doesn't play Green Bay in the regular season) - especially as it could be 8-1 entering its Week 10 bye as the Eagles will be favored the next two weeks at home vs. San Francisco and Denver.

Dallas is the defending NFC East champion and likely still the biggest challenger for the Eagles there, no offense to the Redskins. As of right now, Cowboys star running back Ezekiel Elliott is "unsuspended" for the next two weeks because some judge is on vacation. I won't get into how silly that is. That said, if the NFL gets that temporary restraining order lifted when this judge is done snow skiing or whatever, Elliott would miss the next six games - including Nov. 19 vs. the Eagles. I don't see a Cowboys team without Elliott for that long winning the division again. Philly is the -400 East favorite.

In addition, second-year Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz could benefit individually from Rodgers' injury. The latter had been the Bovada favorite to win a third MVP, but now Wentz is the guy at +175, followed by Alex Smith (+200) and Tom Brady (+400).

I suppose Washington (3-2) could benefit from the Rodgers injury as well when it comes to competition for a wild-card spot, although I don't think the Redskins are all that great. This starts probably the toughest stretch of their schedule, with a game next week vs. the Cowboys (so Washington is a loser with that Elliott news), trip to Seattle in Week 9, vs. Minnesota on Nov. 12 and then at much-improved New Orleans in Week 11. The Redskins are +550 to win the East.

Redskins at Eagles Betting Story Lines

 

Philly is on extra rest after an impressive 28-23 win in Carolina last Thursday - I'll admit, I took the Panthers there - for its NFL-high fourth straight win. Wentz outplayed Cam Newton substantially by throwing for three scores and no picks while rushing for 25 yards. The Eagles defense looked much better with the return of Pro Bowl defensive tackle Fletcher Cox after he missed the previous two games due to injury.

Cox was in Newton's face all night and part of the reason the former MVP threw three picks -- one was directly the result of Cox and led to a short-field Philly TD on offense. Zach Ertz was held to just two catches for 18 yards but both were TDs. Ertz has already matched his career high in TDs (4) with 10 games to play.Since Week 8 of last season, Wentz & Ertz have connected 101 times, again the most of any quarterback/tight end in the NFL and third overall behind only Ben Roethlisberger/Antonio Brown and Carson Palmer/Larry Fitzgerald. Ertz is a big reason why Wentz has been fantastic on third down this season.

I believe the Redskins were looking past the winless 49ers a bit last week with Washington coming off its bye and then this game next on the schedule. The Skins should have blown out the Niners and were double-digit favorites but only won 26-24. Kirk Cousins threw for two TDs and ran for one but wasn't overly sharp. The Skins were up 17-0 at one point but had to make a defensive stand at the end around midfield.

Washington played that game without top running back Rob Kelley (ankle) and No. 1 cornerback Josh Norman (rib) - then lost a handful of other defensive guys. It's not clear if Kelley or Norman will be ready Monday. Ditto fellow starting CB Bashaud Breeland, who hurt his knee vs. San Francisco. Defensive lineman and 2017 first-round pick Jonathan Allen, a steal at No. 17 overall, is done for the year with a Lisfranc injury. Shoot, even kicker Dustin Hopkins is hurt and reportedly will miss the rest of the season with a hip injury. He was 9-for-11 on field goals this year. The team has signed undrafted free agent Nick Rose to replace him. He last played at the University of Texas in 2015 and couldn't make either the Falcons or Niners since then.

The Redskins had won five straight against the Eagles but lost 30-17 in Week 1 as slight underdogs. Cousins was not good in completing just 57.5 percent of his passes with a pick at the Philly goal line and two lost fumbles. That has been easily his lowest-rated game of the year. Wentz threw for 307 and two scores but did have a pick returned for a TD. Ertz caught eight balls for 93 yards.

Redskins at Eagles Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes , Philadelphia is a 4.5-point favorite (-110) with a total of 48.5. On the moneyline, the Eagles are -225 and Redskins +185. On the alternate lines, Philly is -4 (-118) and -5 (-105). Washington is 2-3 against the spread (1-1 on road) and 3-2 "over/under" (2-0 on road). Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS (1-1 at home) and 4-2 O/U (1-1 at home).

The Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their past five after a win. They are 0-4 ATS in their past four on Monday night. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their previous six vs. the NFC. They are 5-2 ATS in their past seven on Monday. The over is 13-3 in Washington's past 16 on the road. It's 9-2 in Philly's past 11 vs. the NFC East. The over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings. Washington has covered six of the past seven.

Redskins at Eagles Betting Prediction

That MNF trend for Washington is misleading as I'm sure you remember Week 4 in Kansas City when Redskins backers were victims of one of the worst bad beats in NFL history thanks a Chiefs defensive fluke touchdown on the game's final play. Still, the Eagles are better-rested, healthier, at home and already were decisive in the Week 1 victory. Give the 4 points and go over the total.

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