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2017 Oakland Raiders Season Win Total Picks


by - 8/9/2017

Derek Carr Oakland Raiders

2016 Record: 12-4

2017 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 10.0

2017 Season Win Total Pick: 'Under'

The Raiders entered last season as Everybody's Sleeper Team. Normally that's the kiss of death. Those "sleepers" generally enter the year overhyped and overvalued, shackled by the weight of unrealistic expectations, only to watch it all crumble.

Shockingly, the Raiders didn't just live up to the hype - they surpassed it. They won 12 games, the franchise's most since 2000, and tied for the most wins by a Raider team in 40 years. And now it is time for an encore.

It all starts and ends with Derek Carr. For my money, Carr is the best young quarterback in the NFL and the most likely signal caller to someday seize the mantle from Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers as the best in the game. Carr can do it all; he makes all the throws, he's a great leader who comes through in the clutch, and he takes care of the ball, throwing just six interceptions in 560 attempts last season.

Carr is a stud. And we were all robbed when he broke his leg in Week 16, denying Carr and the Raiders a chance to make some postseason noise. But he is healthy now. And Carr is armed with a pair of talented receivers (Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree) and one of the best offensive lines in football.

Oakland's biggest problem is getting the defense up to par. The Raiders' lack of depth and weak scheme led to them finishing No. 26 in total defense and No. 20 in scoring. They were also last in the NFL in sacks and enter this season still a bit short in both talent and depth. Ken Norton Jr. has been shaky as a defensive coordinator. And head coach Jack Del Rio wisely delegated some of the DC responsibilities to former Indianapolis head coach John Pagano.

There's a lot to like here with Oakland. But there are also a lot of red flags shooting up around this team suggesting a major regression.

First of all, their plus-16 turnover ratio is way behind the norm. For a defense that struggled to stop people last season, I don't know that they can rely on the same number of turnovers to bail them out again. Next, the Raiders were 6-0 in games decided by six points or less and an unreal 8-1 in games determined by a touchdown or less. A lot of that was Carr. But even he won't be able to pull that off again. That remarkable record in close games is part of the reason that Oakland surpassed its Pythagorean Win Total by over three full wins.

Finally, there is a lot of negative karma from Oakland's announced move to Las Vegas. There is no way to anticipate how this betrayal is going to impact the Raiders fan base, and that could have a direct impact on the team's support. Things are bittersweet around Oakland right now. And if the Raiders get off to a slow start or fail to live up to the mounting expectations then things could go sideways for this group quickly. Remember: this franchise hadn't had a winning season in 13 years prior to last season for a reason.

The Raiders are legit. And Carr is a hero. But I can't ignore the signs here. I thought the Raiders were a year away last season and that this would be their coming out party. Now I'm thinking that they peaked a little too early. And this year's rough schedule, along with the fact that they won't be sneaking up on anyone this fall, will work against them. Play the 'under'.

Raiders Regular Season Schedule (All times Eastern)

Week

Date

Kickoff

Opponent

1

10-Sep

10:00 a.m. PDT

at Tennessee Titans

2

17-Sep

1:05 p.m. PDT

New York Jets

3

24-Sep

5:25 p.m. PDT

at Washington Redskins

4

1-Oct

1:25 p.m. PDT

at Denver Broncos

5

8-Oct

1:05 p.m. PDT

Baltimore Ravens

6

15-Oct

1:25 p.m. PDT

Los Angeles Chargers

7

19-Oct

5:25 p.m. PDT

Kansas City Chiefs

8

29-Oct

10:00 a.m. PDT

at Buffalo Bills

9

5-Nov

5:30 p.m. PST

at Miami Dolphins

10

12-Nov


Bye

11

19-Nov

1:25 p.m. PST

New England Patriots

12

26-Nov

1:25 p.m. PST

Denver Broncos

13

3-Dec

1:25 p.m. PST

New York Giants

14

10-Dec

10:00 a.m. PST

at Kansas City Chiefs

15

17-Dec

5:30 p.m. PST

Dallas Cowboys

16

25-Dec

5:30 p.m. PST

at Philadelphia Eagles

17

31-Dec

1:25 p.m. PST

at Los Angeles Chargers

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