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2017 San Francisco 49ers Season Win Total Picks


by - 8/16/2017

Carlos Hyde San Francisco 49ers

2016 Record: 2-14

2017 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 4.5

2017 Season Win Total Pick: 'Over'

San Francisco has been floundering since the 49ers' ridiculous schism from John Harbaugh following the 2014 season. After one season of comically inept Jim Tomsula, the 49ers tried to get crafty, bringing in Chip Kelly. That went about as well as expected, with Kelly's utterly ill-fitting scheme leading to a 2-14 campaign. The 49ers wisely decided to move on from Kelly after just one year.

Now the question is whether or not the 49ers made a wise decision by bringing in rookie head coach Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan, one of the primary architects of Atlanta's all-time Super Bowl collapse, is somewhat of a legacy hire since his father was an offensive coordinator in San Francisco during its heyday (1992-1994).

Shanahan the Younger is a bit tough to pin down. On one hand, he has proven himself completely inept in game management situations throughout his career as an offensive coordinator. And I'm not just saying that because of his dumbfounding decisions during the Falcons Super Bowl choke. I wrote about Kyle Shanahan's coaching limitations and his incompetence back when Atlanta hired him as an offensive coordinator prior to 2015. Now it is more of a fact than an observation.

But the fact remains that Shanahan has the Golden Ticket: his father's playbook. Mike Shanahan's offensive system has been one of the most successful schemes of the past quarter century. It led to a title in San Francisco. It worked for over a decade and led to two titles in Denver. His disciple, Gary Kubiak, utilized Shanahan's system during a successful run in Houston and eventually won another title for Denver. And now Kyle (who should have a ring of his own) will follow his father's blueprint as he attempts to establish himself with the 49ers.

In the long term, I'm sure Shanahan will experience some success in San Francisco. In the short term, I don't think the 49ers will be nearly as incompetent as they were last year. Shanahan's offense is a bit of plug-and-play. And the 49ers actually have some guys - Carlos Hyde, Brian Hoyer, the offensive line - that fit his system well.

Defensively, the 49ers are going to benefit from simply not being on the field as much. San Francisco was last in the league in time of possession, and the 49ers defense was on the field for over 1,100 plays last season. The primary focus of this season will be developing young starters like Solomon Thomas, DeForst Buckner, Arik Armstead and Reuben Foster.

There's nowhere to go but up for this organization. Last year I felt that they could be a feisty 5-11. They were much worse. But I think they have a chance to bounce back this year, and even if they don't win significantly more games they will be much more competitive than the group that lost by nearly 11 points per game last year. I don't like the 'over' if you have to lay more than -120 in juice. But I think the 49ers' schedule softens up late in the year, and they should be able to close strong with just enough wins to sneak 'over'.

49ers Regular Season Schedule (All times Eastern)

Week

Date

Kickoff

Opponent

1

10-Sep

1:25 p.m. PDT

Carolina Panthers

2

17-Sep

1:25 p.m. PDT

at Seattle Seahawks

3

21-Sep

5:25 p.m. PDT

Los Angeles Rams

4

1-Oct

1:05 p.m. PDT

at Arizona Cardinals

5

8-Oct

10:00 a.m. PDT

at Indianapolis Colts

6

15-Oct

10:00 a.m. PDT

at Washington Redskins

7

22-Oct

1:05 p.m. PDT

Dallas Cowboys

8

29-Oct

10:00 a.m. PDT

at Philadelphia Eagles

9

5-Nov

1:05 p.m. PST

Arizona Cardinals

10

12-Nov

1:25 p.m. PST

New York Giants

11

19-Nov


Bye

12

26-Nov

1:05 p.m. PST

Seattle Seahawks

13

3-Dec

10:00 a.m. PST

at Chicago Bears

14

10-Dec

10:00 a.m. PST

at Houston Texans

15

17-Dec

1:25 p.m. PST

Tennessee Titans

16

24-Dec

1:05 p.m. PST

Jacksonville Jaguars

17

31-Dec

1:25 p.m. PST

at Los Angeles Rams

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