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Monday Night Football Predictions: Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints


by - 10/4/2018

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees

A nice sweep for us last Monday night, although it would have been even better had Denver hung on to its 10-point lead over visiting Kansas City. Alas, Patrick Mahomes worked some of his magic and the Chiefs remained the AFC's lone unbeaten with a 27-23 comeback win. We recommended Denver +5.5 as well as "under" the total of 56 points - perhaps the Broncos did at least give the league a template to slow Mahomes for a while.

This Monday, it's the Washington Redskins at the New Orleans Saints. In all honesty, the biggest story here has little to do with who wins or covers. It's all about Drew Brees. The lock first-ballot Hall of Famer has 71,740 career passing yards. So, barring a shockingly bad game Monday or an injury - not likely since Brees has played all 16 games in New Orleans all but two years (and 15 in those) - he will pass Peyton Manning (71,940) to become the NFL's all-time passing yardage leader. In addition, Brees can join the 500-TD club with Manning (539), Brett Favre (508; he's second in yardage at 71,838) and perhaps Tom Brady (497 entering Thursday's game with Indianapolis). Brees clearly will be passing Manning on that next year.

Brees earlier this year broke Favre's completions record, and Brees' seven single-season passing yardage titles will never be touched. Neither will Brees' five 5,000-yard passing years. What other records are there to break? Maybe he'll have an eight-TD game. Guy is just amazing.

Think how different the football world might have been had the Miami Dolphins and Nick Saban chosen Brees in free agency ahead of the 2006 season instead of Daunte Culpepper. To be fair to Saban and the Fins, Brees was coming off a major shoulder injury. Stick to recruiting five-star high-schoolers Nick!

 

Redskins at Saints Betting Story Lines

I've not heard of any team getting its bye week after playing a Thursday night, so the Redskins are on about the longest stretch off possible with them last playing Sunday afternoon on Sept. 23 and now on Monday night. A Week 4 bye is definitely not ideal because players are still in pretty good health.

Being honest, I'm not sure what this team is. Throw out the win in Arizona as the Cardinals suck. The home loss to Indianapolis was ugly, but the two-touchdown win over Green Bay was nice. Washington was ravaged by injury in camp at tailback and signed Adrian Peterson off the street. He has been terrific with 236 yards and three TDs on 56 carries at age 33. I don't expect this to continue. Remember, Peterson started last year with the Saints and did squat. The Cardinals got him and Peterson had two big early games but then nothing. He did sprain an ankle vs. the Packers but obviously will play Monday.

A big reason the Saints traded Peterson last year was the emergence of running back Alvin Kamara, who went on to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Kamara might be the leading candidate for Offensive Player of the Year right now (presuming Mahomes wins MVP) as Kamara leads the NFL with 611 yards from scrimmage. He has five rushing scores and 35 catches for 336 yards and one TD receiving. Kamara's rushing workload might start to shrink just a bit with Mark Ingram's suspension having ended. Ingram had his best season in 2017 with 1,124 yards and 12 scores. He has major reason to be on his best behavior and stay on the field the rest of the way as a pending unrestricted free agent.

The Saints are the NFC's version of the Titans: Lucky to be 3-1. New Orleans' Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay doesn't look so good now. It could have/should have lost Week 2 vs. Cleveland and Week 3 in Atlanta. The Saints played easily their best game last week in cruising to a 33-18 win at the Giants. Brees had a rare game without a TD pass, but Kamara rushed for three. I'm not sure holding the crappy Giants to 18 points means that the Saints defense is fixed.

 

Redskins at Saints Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes , New Orleans is a 7-point favorite (+110) with a total of 52.5. On the moneyline, the Saints are -270 and Redskins +230. On the alternate lines, the Saints are -6.5 (-110) and -6 (-118). Washington is 2-1 against the spread (1-0 on road) and 1-2 "over/under" (0-1 on road). New Orleans is 2-2 ATS (0-2 at home) and 2-2 O/U (1-1 at home).

The Redskins are 7-19 ATS in their past 26 Monday games. They are 1-6 ATS in their past seven following a win. The Saints are 12-5 ATS in their past 17 after a win. The over is 5-0 in Washington's previous five in October. It's 4-1 in the team's previous five against clubs with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in New Orleans' past six vs. the NFC and 4-1 in the team's past five on Monday. The over is 5-0 in the past five meetings.

 

Redskins at Saints Betting Prediction

 

If Monday's game is anything like Week 11 last year in the Superdome, we are in for a treat. That looked like it was in the bag for the Redskins up 31-16 with less than three minutes left, but Brees had two late TD passes and a 2-point conversion and New Orleans would win 34-31 in overtime.

I love the over with the Saints' shaky defense and Jay Gruden having two weeks to prepare for it. Take New Orleans at -6.5 on the alternate line.

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