Week 17 NFL Picks: Best 6-Point Teaser Bets from Handicapper Doug Upstone
It looked like we had a 4-0 week locked up, having Seattle at a reduced number for NFL teasers, but they were even more off their game than we thought they might be and lost outright to Arizona.
Still, a 3-1 record is not a bad week, and we made a little cash on NFL picks, taking season record to 44-20 on teasers. While I'll fall short of my annual goal, a profit will be made, and we'll move ahead to close out this article for the season.
Thanks for following along with me, and expect more free picks articles and videos after the first of January. Happy New Year!
Below are my Week 17 selections against the NFL odds.
New Orleans at Carolina - Dec. 29 - Saints Taken From -13 to -7 over Panthers
Nothing would please the New Orleans Saints more than Seattle beating San Francisco for the second time in 2019 so they could move up to the No. 2 seed in the NFC and have a bye. However, their contest at Carolina will be over by several hours before that game starts, so New Orleans has to control what they can. To this point, there's been no mention of resting Drew Brees, which is why the spread is as high as it is. However, for this teaser, being able to lower the number down to 7 is a plus in case Teddy Bridgewater becomes the starter or plays the last two or three quarters. Carolina gave up long ago, having lost seven in a row, and will roll over and play dead if Saints jump to 14-0 lead.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Saints -7
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants - Dec. 29 - Eagles Taken From -4.5 to +1.5 over Giants
In spite of having a beat-up team with not many ways to score, coach Doug Pederson coached his team up, had a superior game plan, and Philadelphia beat Dallas to take over the NFC East lead. Next for Eagles is going on the road to New Jersey to wrap up the division. Carson Wentz has found a way to work better with his depleted receivers' group, and that is sticking the pigskin right on them. This has increased their confidence, and the Eagles pass-catchers are suddenly running better routes. The New York Giants have won two straight and might make this uncomfortable for Philly. That's why taking the Eagles below the key number of three holds value in making them an underdog. Philadelphia is 24-5 on the teaser line at the Giants.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Eagles +1.5
L.A. Chargers at Kansas City - Dec. 29 - Chiefs Taken From -8.5 to -2.5 over Chargers
Kansas City is all but set to be the third-seed in the AFC since Baltimore holds the top spot and New England is very unlikely to fall at home to Miami. The Chiefs at -8.5 is a little iffy only because Andy Reid has a long history of resting players before a playoff game and might surprise us at the last minute. That is why the ability to buy K.C. down below the key numbers of 7, 6 and 3 could be the difference between winning and losing this teaser. Besides, the Chiefs are 27-3 against a teaser line vs. teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Chiefs -2.5
Arizona at L.A. Rams - Dec. 29 - Rams Taken From -7.5 to -1.5 over Cardinals
After a long losing streak, Arizona has won its last two and goes after a third straight victory in Los Angeles. With the Rams officially out of the playoffs after being in the Super Bowl, they might be deflated. And that's why they would seem to fit a teaser better than spread wager. Also, have to take into consideration Kyler Murray's hamstring, which took him out of the game in Seattle, Reports have him willing to give it a go. However, even if he does, he's likely relegated to a pocket passer instead of using his legs. And despite how great Kenyon Drake has played for the Cardinals, if backup QB Brett Hundley starts or plays extensively, the Rams are in great shape.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Rams -1.5
Doug Upstone's NFL Teasers Method - Betting NFL teasers are not about taking off points in games you like, rather creating value going against key numbers. Those key numbers I am talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers NFL odds for teasers.
The other key component is betting wisely. Limiting your teasers to two, three or four-team groupings, that enhances your chances of winning. With most four-team teasers paying out about $240 on $100 bet when you go to a five-teamer that jumps to +365 and keeps rising as you add more games.
Along with that so does your chances of not winning. How often have you bet teasers and parlays of six or more and only had one wrong? My guess is too often. Long shots do come in, but more often than not the money won only pays for all previous losses.
$$ Doug's fired up for Thursday's football releases in the NFL and for bowl games at 6:00 EST, with 15 total plays, all for just $99 and that includes several daily Top Plays of 5-Units or higher.
$$ In the NBA, his 4-Unit or higher plays are rock solid 17-7, 70.8%, (as if 12/26) up $4,940 profit!
$$ Doug's on an 84-65 NFL run and is 2016 Monitored Champion
$$ Doug has 21 No.1 monitored titles and 80 Top 10 finishes!
$$ Doug has a 7-unit Week 17 NFL Winner (12/29) plus, several College Bowl Winners of 5 to 7 Units Dec. 27 through Jan 2.
Check out Doug's Winning Plays! Click Here
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