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Monday Night Football Picks: Patriots at Jets Odds and Predictions

by Chris Vasile - 11/9/2020

New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold

The NFL trade deadline has come and gone and for another year we saw very little movement by way of offensive stars. Sure, some teams got the defensive help they required, but unlike in the NBA or NHL, the NFL trade deadline is usually a dud. What should be talked about however, is the posturing for draft positions for the upcoming NFL draft. There are three teams with one win and the lowly Jets with no wins on the season. The Patriots aren’t that far off sitting at two wins through seven games, so if the Jets find a way to win this contest, that could benefit the Patriots come next April. It really is quite the predicament the Jets find themselves in as a win here would get them out of the running for an 0-16 season, but it could ultimately backfire on them in the race for Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields.

As for the recap needed for last week’s game, the Bucs were given quite a scare by the Giants who actually showed up to play and looked decent when they weren’t turning the ball over. The defense held the Bucs in check for the entire first half before Brady got going in the last 30 minutes. Daniel Jones threw two timely interceptions which the Bucs took advantage of, but the talking point was the non-DPI call on the two-point conversion to tie the game. In my opinion, the defender was there just a fraction too early and was bailed out by the refs. We did take Tampa -11 last week, which was a loss, but we are ready to bounce back this week.

Patriots at Jets Betting Story Lines

If you think the Patriots season has been an unmitigated disaster, you’re not alone. The Patriots have looked atrocious in six of the seven games they’ve played in, but as a conspiracy theorist, you have to believe this was planned. Belichick started planting the seeds of doubt in the offseason about how the season was going to go, and through injuries, COVID, and a flat-out lack of production, the Patriots find themselves among the worst teams in the league. Could there be a bigger plan in play? Well, when you have quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields set to enter the NFL draft in the offseason, I don’t see an issue with wanting to be picking in the top few draft picks and potentially getting a franchise quarterback. We’ve all known Belichick to be this mastermind that plays Chess when everyone else is playing Checkers, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots find a way to lose this game to the Jets.

As for the Jets, I wish I could give them the benefit of the doubt for being as bad as they are, but the Jets are actually trying to win football games. The problem is they just flat out suck. Whether it be Sam Darnold not being able to stay healthy, the sideshow that was Le’Veon Bell or the complete incompetence of Adam Gase as a head coach. It all adds up to 0-8 and a straight shot at the No.1 overall draft pick in the upcoming draft. Wouldn’t it be something, though, if the Jets found a way to win this game against a division rival and screw themselves at the end of the season by finding another win somewhere down the way, say against the Dolphins in Week 12 or Patriots in Week 17? I wouldn’t put it past them to do something stupid like that, but I guess that’s what former Jets head coach, Herm Edwards was talking about when he emphatically proclaimed, “you play to win the game”. Regardless of where the Jets end up drafting or who they draft, they are still a long ways away from being a borderline .500 football team.

Patriots at Jets Betting Odds and Trends

The majority of sportsbooks are currently sitting at New England -10 (-110) with the total set at 42. On the moneyline, the Patriots are between -450 to -500 while the Jets are between +375 to +400. The Pats are 3-4 ATS after falling to the Bills last week but covering as five-point underdogs. They come into this game on a 22-7 ATS run vs teams with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in the last five vs the Jets. The Jets are 1-7 ATS which makes them the second-worst ATS team behind only Dallas. They come into this game 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 vs the AFC East. 

Patriots at Jets Betting Predictions

I touched on it in the above paragraph, but I feel the need to reiterate my point. The Patriots will find a way to lose this game because Bill Belichick knows how to see two and three steps ahead. There would be nothing more “JETS” than winning this game vs a divisional rival and thinking they are the best team in the world, only for it to come back and bite them in the butt with a lower draft pick in the offseason. From a football perspective, I do believe that Sam Darnold can outduel Cam Newton and that the Jets can put up some points on a Pats defense that is far from what they were in seasons past. Jets and the points in this one, plus a sprinkle on the moneyline.

Play: Jets +10

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