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Monday Night Football Predictions: Atlanta vs. Green Bay Odds and Picks

by Chris Vasile - 10/3/2020

Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons

Three Monday Night Football games, three noteworthy results. This time it was the Chiefs who made the headlines for their dominant offensive display against a Ravens’ team that just flat out didn’t have any answers on either side of the ball. It was a shocking display from the Ravens, not only because I chose them as my play for this piece, but because I thought they needed to win this game more than the Chiefs in order to have the opportunity to host the AFC Championship Game should they get there. Instead, the Chiefs flexed their muscle and put up 27 first-half points on route to a 14-point victory which easily covered the 3.5-point spread.

As for this week, the Falcons travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers, and on paper this one seems like a major mismatch. The Falcons are 0-3 and have to be mentally fragile after coughing up two late fourth quarter leads, while the Packers are 3-0 and feeling good about themselves. So why is the spread so low? Keep on reading to find out.

Falcons at Packers Betting Story Lines

It’s only a matter of time until Atlanta management has seen enough and gets rid of Dan Quinn as head coach (I’m shocked he even started the year as their coach) and revamps their entire roster either through trades or the draft in the offseason. The Falcons are a mess right now, and I don’t think heading to Lambeau field is going to be a solution to all their problems. Offensively, the Falcons have been solid. They’ve put up 25, 39 and 26 points in their three games. Those kind of point totals are supposed to translate into wins, but the defense has really let them down big time. The Falcons rank 31st in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and dead last in scoring defense, giving up 32 points per game. They now have to take on a Green Bay team who ranks in the top-six in every offensive category.

From an injury perspective, the Falcons are hoping Julio Jones can get back in the lineup to give them another option to attack the Packers with. Unfortunately, it’s not looking promising, so they’ll have to make due with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage – the latter of which was banged up last week.

As for the Packers, they come into this game fat and happy after a big Sunday night win on the road against the Saints. The Packers offense is humming right along through three games, ranking second in total yards, sixth in passing yards, second in rushing yards, first in points per game… and they’ve yet to turn the ball over. One would think that Aaron Rodgers simply has too many weapons at his disposal for the Falcons to contain and the Packers will run away with this game early on.

Falcons at Packers Betting Odds and Trends

Around 95 percent of the sportsbooks are offering the Packers -7 (-110), with the total set at 56.5 or 57. On the moneyline, the Packers are between -370 to -390, while the Falcons are between +270 to +280. If your feeling crazy, the alternate lines offer up plenty of value as the Packers on the alternate are -13.5 (+165), -16.5 (+230) or you can take the Falcons by -2.5 for a big +290 payout. The Packers are 3-0 ATS this season and enter this game on a 5-1 ATS run at Lambeau Field. The Packers can also boast the fact that they are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs the NFC and 5-2 ATS in their last seven following a straight up win. The Falcons are 1-2 ATS after failing to cover last week vs the Bears but come into this game with great betting trends such as 5-0 ATS in their last five road games but are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 October games.

Falcons at Packers Betting Predictions

One of the first things you learn when betting on the National Football League is that to be a successful bettor, you have to bet numbers and not teams. On paper, this is a mismatch – the Packers are 3-0 and they average 40 points per game. The Falcons are 0-3 and give up 32 points per game. You have to ask yourself… so why is this spread only a touchdown? One would think that after a big win in prime time against a contending team, they’d have a bit of a letdown against a team like the Falcons who are struggling right now. Atlanta can certainly move the ball on offense and put up points, so if the Packers defense isn’t prepared to play, they could find themselves in a hole early and leaving it very tough to cover the touchdown spread. What I would do is try to find an Atlanta +7.5 line or perhaps buy the half-point hook to 7.5 if need be. This could be a last possession type of game and we’ll grab the points in this one.

Play:  Atlanta +7.5 (buy half-point if needed)

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