Monday Night Football Predictions: Chargers at Saints Odds and Picks

by Chris Vasile - 10/9/2020

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees

Last week, when the Falcons traveled to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers, I said that we are betting the number and not the team. While I took the Falcons +7.5 and lost, I still believe it was the right side to be on. I mean, the Packers needed a three (!!) touchdown performance from Robert Tonyan (I know you googled him) to beat the lowly Falcons. At one point, the Falcons had a 20-play drive and came away with a measly three points. The Falcons should have covered that game but are simply incapable of doing anything well this season. On to the next.

As for this week, the Chargers travel to Louisiana to take on Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. The Chargers are coming off a tough loss to the Bucs – a game where the defense gave up 38 points after they led 24-7 right before half time only to turn the ball over and allow the Bucs to get back into the game with a touchdown. The Saints are coming off a dominant performance against the Lions (if you look past the first two drives). The Saints fell behind 14-0 before scoring 35 unanswered points to grab the win. On paper, the Saints should be able to move the ball up and down the field on a weak Chargers’ defense, but not everything is as straightforward as it seems.

Chargers at Saints Betting Story Lines

The news out of Chargers camp this week focused solely on the quarterback situation as Anthony Lynn finally came out and said what we already knew to be true; that Justin Herbert was the starting quarterback for the Chargers moving forward. It’s a terrible blow for Tyrod Taylor, who was seemingly injured by the Chargers’ medical staff, but it’s the right move for the Chargers moving forward. Herbert is the right quarterback to lead this team, but it’s going to take a few games, perhaps the rest of the season, for him to work out all the rookie kinks and mistakes. It doesn’t help his cause that the team is once again dealing with injury problems to several key guys on both sides of the football. If Herbert is going to make a case for himself and show Lynn and the Chargers’ fan base that sticking with him is the right decision, he’ll have to do it essentially on his own, or with the help of a rookie running back in Joshua Kelley and an often banged-up Keenan Allen. Is that enough to march into the Superdome and beat the Saints? Unlikely, but at least Chargers’ fan can get a glimpse into the future of what Herbert brings to the table.

As for the Saints, they are starting to get healthy. And when they are all systems go, they are one scary team. It’s still unclear as to when Michael Thomas will be back in the lineup running routes and catching touchdowns, but as of last week the offense looked fine without him, putting up 35 points. Alvin Kamara is starting to rediscover his form. And when he’s fully fit and touching the ball 15+ times a game, the Saints are a scary team to play against. Drew Brees is also starting to come around, and we don’t see a reason why he can’t tear up a Chargers defense that just gave up 38 points to a Bucs team (who we saw last night is not all that good).

Chargers at Saints Betting Odds and Trends

Around 95 percent of the sportsbooks are offering the Saints -7.5 (-110) with the total set at 21 or 51.5 On the moneyline, the Saints are between -360 to -380 while the Chargers are between +280 to +300. If your feeling crazy, the alternate lines offer up plenty of value as the Saints on the alternate are -13.5 (+155), -16.5 (+210), or you can take the Chargers by -2.5 for a big +315. payout. The Saints are 2-2 ATS this season but enter this game on a 4-1 ATS run against the Chargers in their last five meetings. The Saints are also 20-8 ATS vs a team with a losing record and 37-14 ATS in the month of October. The Chargers are 3-1 ATS after getting the cover last week against the Bucs as +7.5-point favorites. They come into this game 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games and 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.

Chargers at Saints Betting Predictions

You won’t get rich betting against Sean Peyton and Drew Brees at the Superdome, and I’m not about to step in front of them here this week. With a win, the Saints can take over top spot in the NFC South. And while I know we are just five games into the season, being on top and playing with a “lead” helps morale throughout the season. The Saints have the momentum of a great road game last week to bring into this contest, and we see them putting up 30+ points again for the third straight week. We figured the line would be closer to 10, but with it sitting around -7.5 or -8, there is value on the Saints.

Play: Saints -7.5 -110 over Chargers

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Monday Night Football Predictions: Chargers at Saints Odds and Picks

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